Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[2flatpack] 27/4/2015 14:28

bracke
Thanks for your thoughts .
I am unsure what constitutes a double or triple top so when I read an article which gave 3% as a guide and this is the only hard figure I have seen,I asked the question "Was that the triple top".
God Bless the Greeks it seems no one else will.
Cheers

[bracke] 27/4/2015 13:17

2flat

I did not want to comment on the gist of your post until I fully understood your calculation. Now that I do.......On Friday the share price intraday high 1185.

I was unaware of the 3% 'rule'. I can only speak for myself but as far as I am concerned the Friday high did not form a triple top. There are now two possibilities:

1 It retraces and then continues up to form a genuine triple top.

or

2 It continues down below the last swing low at 1044 which would mean that the 1185 Friday high was a lower high.

A retrace was to be expected before continuing up. Currently the most likely event which could 'put a spanner in the works' is a Greek default.

[2flatpack] 27/4/2015 12:12

bracke
I think it takes more than a typo to confuse you.
Thanks for the correction.
I note you have not commented on the gist of my post.
Cheers

[bracke] 27/4/2015 11:30

Good day 2flat

I am confused with your calculation. If the top is 1219 and 3% is 36.57 is not the calculation 1219 - 36.57 = 1182.43?

[2flatpack] 27/4/2015 09:05

Was that the triple top?
As I understand it, if the peak is within 3%, it counts as a triple, so 3% of 1219 is eer! 36.57 so any thing above 1282.43 will do.
I wait to be corrected.
Cheers

[bracke] 23/4/2015 10:58

Gap filled.

Just needs an announcement that there is an agreement on the Greek situation, even if it's a 'can kick'. The market will spike and AHT goes to a triple top.

[james97] 22/4/2015 21:11

That's still a rebound from the unofficial 5% down in after hours trade

[discodave4] 22/4/2015 20:54

URI down 2%DD

[james97] 22/4/2015 18:51

URI bouncing back tonight. Yesterday's after hours movement clearly overdone.
Interesting that URI average fleet age is 43 months compared to Sunbelt's 26 months. Reflection that whilst URI is doing well and growing strongly Sunbelt's growth is far far stronger.

[bracke] 22/4/2015 17:21

Todays gap unfilled. It needs to reach yesterdays close at 1163 to fill the gap.

No certainty it will bounce back tomorrow.

[discodave4] 22/4/2015 13:02

Does that mean, given its AHT, that it will bounce back tomorrow!GLDD

[bracke] 22/4/2015 11:30

It filled yesterdays gap with a gap today and then some.

The market is becoming 'edgy' so a retrace is likely.

[fenners66] 21/4/2015 23:44

Lowered the Top of their range in some items but not lowered the range: - so

CEO Comments

Michael Kneeland, chief executive officer of United Rentals, said, "We turned in a solid first quarter, with record revenue, EBITDA and ROIC. The year has had some early headwinds, including a decline in upstream oil and gas activity, a harsh winter, and the adverse currency impact of a strong U.S. dollar. We've offset these pressures by redistributing underutilized fleet to areas of higher demand. An improving rental landscape, and the strong performance of our power and trench specialty lines, helped drive our 12% increase in rental revenue."

Kneeland continued, "Looking to the rest of the year, we expect a continued rebound in construction activity, along with our usual seasonal uptick. We also expect secular penetration to continue. We're investing in our sales force, and we plan to open about 18 specialty rental branches this year. Our employees are excited to deliver a level of service that sets us apart in this environment."

2015 Outlook

The company has updated its full year outlook as follows:

Prior Outlook Current Outlook


Total revenue $6.0 billion to $6.2 billion $6.0 billion to $6.1 billion

Adjusted EBITDA $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion $2.95 billion to $3.00 billion


Increase in rental rates (year-over-year) Approximately 3.5% Approximately 3.0%


Time utilization Approximately 69.0% Unchanged


Net rental capital expenditures after gross purchases

Approximately $1.2 billion, after gross purchases of approximately $1.7 billion Unchanged


Free cash flow (excluding the impact of merger and restructuring related costs)
$725 million to $775 million Unchanged



Free Cash Flow and Fleet Size

For the first quarter 2015, free cash flow was $450 million, after total rental and non-rental gross capital expenditures of $345 million. By comparison, free cash flow for the first quarter 2014 was $278 million after total rental and non-rental gross capital expenditures of $351 million.6
The size of the rental fleet was $8.39 billion of original equipment cost at March 31, 2015, compared with $8.44 billion at December 31, 2014. The age of the rental fleet was 43.3 months on an OEC-weighted basis at March 31, 2015, compared with 43.0 months at December 31, 2014.

[junglee] 21/4/2015 22:44

United beats the Q1 forecasts. However, it has lowered the forward guidance for 2015 towards the low-end of the range given earlier. The after-hours price is nearly 5% down after falling by 1% during the day. "97.90 Down 0.96(0.97%) 4:02PM EDT After Hours : 93.20 Down 4.70 (4.80%) 5:23PM EDT". I wonder a corresponding impact on AHT price would see it down to 11-teens tomorrow. On the other hand, contra thinking could provide a buying opportunity. AIMHO, DYOR etc.

[bracke] 21/4/2015 12:27

Good day 2flat

You will have noticed the 'IF' at the start of my post. AHT has 'flyaway' periods. In my post 50632 I suggested a triple top by the end of May. If the current rate of climb continues without a retrace it will achieve 1215 by the end of April.

Normally a retrace before 1215 would be likely........but this is AHT.

[2flatpack] 21/4/2015 11:53

bracke
I think you are looking for immortality with a neck stretcher like that.
Well done.
I watch in awe.
Cheers

[bracke] 21/4/2015 11:27

'IF' it's going to retrace the probability is it will do so at 1177.

[broadwood] 20/4/2015 20:06

Ashtead Group topped the risers as Barclays raised its target price on the stock to 1,405p from 1,289p, a reversal from the stock's 1.1% dip this so far year

[discodave4] 20/4/2015 18:21

broadwood,Thanks, didn't clock that!.DD

[2flatpack] 20/4/2015 16:13

URI Q1 tomorrow after close.
Their results usually have an effect on AHT .
Hope they are good as I've just added.
Cheers

[broadwood] 20/4/2015 13:50

Reason is probably because Barclays Capital have just increased their TP from 1289 to 1405.

[discodave4] 20/4/2015 13:29

Looking strong today.Wonder if HSS results and they are "continuing to review opportunities for further specialist acquisitions", has anything to do with it?.Or bullish in advance of Wednesday's / Thurs US data (home sales, house price index & jobless claims)?.........or its in the tea leaves!.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 17/4/2015 11:49

Hi bracke

Re post 50647, you are right, I was looking for some indication of likely price action until, and beyond the mooted triple top in May.

This has now been answered by the subsequent postings of yourself and DD4 thanks.

Top job, as always!

[discodave4] 17/4/2015 11:27

FTSE taken a big'ish dive at around 11am, perhaps something to do with all the Bloomberg terminals crashing earlier?.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/digital-media/11544186/Finance-world-in-the-dark-as-Bloomberg-terminals-go-offline.htmlGLDD

[discodave4] 16/4/2015 15:06

"confirm it was indeed a triple bottom." Typo, meant triple top.Many thanks bracke for always taking the time to feedback, much appreciated.Keep forgetting to use candlesticks instead of just a normal line chart............see what you mean now.Have a good day.DD