Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 16/3/2015 12:03

Ibrox

From 3Q15 Results commentary:

Fluctuations in the value of the US dollar with respect to the pound sterling have had, and may continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and results of operations as reported in pounds due to the majority of our assets, liabilities, revenues and costs being denominated in US dollars. The Group has arranged its financing such that, at 31 January 2015, 95% of its debt was denominated in US dollars so that there is a natural partial offset between its dollar-denominated net assets and earnings and its dollar-denominated debt and interest expense. At 31 January 2015, dollar-denominated debt represented approximately 69% of the value of dollar-denominated net assets (other than debt).

Based on the current currency mix of our profits and on dollar debt levels, interest and exchange rates at 31 January 2015, a 1% change in the US dollar exchange rate would impact underlying pre-tax profit by approximately GBP4m.

Hope this helps

IWW

[ibrox] 16/3/2015 11:12

What did we decide was the profit benefit for the rise in US$ translated into gbp?

[discodave4] 11/3/2015 19:44

Thanks Credit Suisse : raise to 1300.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 10/3/2015 13:42

bracke

Thanks again for your thoughts.

I will continue to watch with interest, from behind the sofa!

[bracke] 10/3/2015 11:05

ian

As you point out there is a lot weighing on the market. If the market decides to go for a major sell off (40%/50%) the good go with the bad. If it is a minor sell off (10%) AHT should be ok.

The share price has dropped out of the ascending channel which has been running since the start of the year. I do not want to overly alarm holders but there is a fair probability that it will visit the Daily SMA 200 currently at 1013.

[ianwwwhite] 10/3/2015 08:13

bracke

Thanks, no doubt there will be ample opportunities to exorcise the AHT ghost in the coming months.

Looks like the market is going to be choppy with our election, Greece and interest rate concerns all bearing down on the recent highs.

In the meantime, an AHT bounce from this level would be welcome!

[bracke] 07/3/2015 12:41

ian

The market likes to over react. Volatility is good for business (brokers, traders, etc).

Unfortunately no short taken. My intention was to watch the price action on Tuesday when the results were announced and go from there but duty called and I had no choice and was out all day.

With the benefit of hindsight I should have left a short order at the previous high but knowing AHT I was wary of doing so.

The probability is for a market recovery next week but how much is a different matter. The writing is on the wall for the commencement of interest rate increases, which means borrowing becomes more expensive and the $ becomes stronger which makes exports more expensive.

I expect to get another chance at a decent short but whether it will be from 1210 or higher is uncertain.

[ianwwwhite] 07/3/2015 10:02

bracke

Spot on, seems somewhat of an over reaction to me!

Did you manage to get even with AHT with your short over the last few days?

[bracke] 06/3/2015 11:43

Perhaps the market is looking ahead. Profits being taken

There is a lot of data from the US today including Non Farm Payroll. If as expected the data is good it is likely to herald an increase in interest rate.

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2015 09:32

Mjcf

I agree, and I wonder what would have happened if the results had disappointed?

Nevertheless, despite the current ripples and waves, I am confident that the tide is still with AHT, and the fundamentals and brokers forcasts are pretty encouraging, for what it's worth.

[mjcferguson] 06/3/2015 09:05

The market never fails to amaze me.Stunning results for the nine months,upgrades from brokers and the price has fallen 75p since the results!

[bracke] 05/3/2015 12:27

Gap filled and a 95 point retrace.

Now needs to move up in order to maintain this year's trend.

[2flatpack] 05/3/2015 10:51

Jumped in with a small Long bet at 1126.
Looking at the charts I noticed Between results the S/P pulls back to its
150day SMA .
Watching with interest.
Cheers

[vetpeter2] 05/3/2015 09:30

Nice write-up on the Interactive Investor site

Ashtead results spark upgrades
By Harriet Mann | Tue, 3rd March 2015 - 12:37
Share this
Ashtead results spark upgrades Cramming significant on-site growth and M&A into the last nine months, Ashtead (AHT) now expects full-year results to beat already increased guidance. The news triggered upgrades across the City, but while the equipment rental firm is certainly not cheap, the cycle is incomplete and market demand should remain strong for at least another 2-3 years.
Group rental revenue jumped 24% during the nine months to 31 January, helping generate record underlying pre-tax profit of £379 million. Both Ashtead's US and UK operations contributed, with a mix of same-store growth and 15 bolt-on acquisitions worth £162 million made during the period.

After capital expenditure of £783 million so far this financial year, bosses warn that full-year spend could be higher than the previously announced range of £925-975million. But investors can see immediate benefits, with full-year results expected to come in ahead of already improved guidance.

Return on investment across the group has risen to 19%. At US business Sunbelt, it remained flat at 26%, and improved at UK business A-Plant to 13%. Rental revenue rose by 25% and 18% respectively, to £1.2 billion and £242.4 million. Margins were up across the group with Sunbelt up to 48% and A-Plant to 35%. It also appears to have avoided any softness as a result of falling oil prices, and management is confident that continued challenges in 2015/2016 will be offset by growth in other markets.

Broker Jefferies says: "With continued Sunbelt market share gain, Ashtead remains in early innings of multi-year period of supernormal growth."

The results highlight that Ashtead can beef up earnings without help from the US construction market, says JP Morgan, which is now starting to pick up. If recovery does take hold, its expectations of double-digit volume growth could seem conservative.



The analyst said: "While we do not anticipate a further material increase in rental penetration in the US, as there tend to be step changes in recessions before flattening off, we believe the group is well placed to outpace the market by taking share from smaller competitors. However, the group is being sensible, in our view, with regards to the level of debt that it is willing to take on in this cycle with net debt/EBITDA of 2.0x at FY15E, despite big increases in capex spend."

But they warn that after its strong share price performance, any diluted optimism could be taken badly by the market. At 1,178p, the shares are up 13% since being included in Interactive Investor's Winter Portfolio of seasonal outperformers, and currently trade on almost 20 times earnings.

As you can see from the chart (above), Ashtead is hugging all-time highs and has strayed further from the 200-day moving average. However, pencilling in three-year compound annual EPS growth of 24%, Barclays is clearly confident and has upped its price target to 1,289p.

"Ashtead has delivered strong earnings upgrades driven largely by structural growth and self-help," says the broker. "With the cyclical recovery now coming through, we believe there is scope for further strong EBITDA growth and that the rating can be sustained over the next 12 months given the current stage of the cycle."

[bracke] 04/3/2015 16:25

That gap fill would be nice.

[bracke] 04/3/2015 11:12

A double top, retrace to the lower parallel which gave the amount I was expecting and a small move back up. So far so good.

[broadwood] 04/3/2015 09:06

DD - ta.

Ashtead Group announced unaudited results for the nine months and third quarter ended 31st January 2015. On a statutory basis, revenue for the nine months increased 20% to £1.5bn, with Sunbelt and A-Plant contributing around 84%, and 16%, respectively. In the three months period, statutory revenue was up 23% to £512.9m. On an underlying basis (before intangible amortisation), rental revenue rose 25% to £462.9m, and pre-tax profit jumped 33% to £113.9m during the same period. As a result, earnings per share advanced 36% to 14.5p. The total rental only revenue growth of 26% for the nine-month period was facilitated through a 24% increase in fleet on rent. Capital investment in the business moved up to £783m from £564m last year. The company invested £162m on 15 bolt-on acquisitions during the period, vis-à-vis £85m in the preceding year.

Our view: With a major increase in fleet on rent, and some improvements in yield, Ashtead’s rental revenues are on an upswing. The high level of capital investment undertaken by the company during the period would go a long way towards ensuring strong returns and business growth. The 15 bolt-on acquisitions undertaken in a short span of nine months would help the company in expanding its geographical footprint and broadening presence across specialty markets. Besides, strong same-store growth and greenfield openings are also expected to add to Ashtead’s future prospects. With these positives, Ashtead’s medium to long term prospects look attractive. We assign a Buy rating

[2flatpack] 03/3/2015 17:17

Disco
URI was up on opening but soon turned. I jumped with a small loss.
Had a great day, made a couple of bob shorting from 1210 to 1150 then made a couple of pence going long from 1155 to 1165 the first time I have made money both up and down or I should say down and up.
Now I have to wait at Watford to rebuy my shares.
Cheers

[discodave4] 03/3/2015 16:27

broadwood - impressed, congratulations.2flat - URI & Dow down. Perhaps after results digested reflected in share price tomorrow?.....not TA, or tea leaves, just wishful thinking.GLDD

[broadwood] 03/3/2015 13:25

Citigroup targets £14.

[broadwood] 03/3/2015 13:17

Remains a worry free share that will continue higher.

Coming up 7 bagger.

[2flatpack] 03/3/2015 11:46

Will the results translate to URI?
May have a small punt on them when they open.
Cheers

[2flatpack] 03/3/2015 11:43

What the hell is happening?
Don't think the gap will be filled today so switched the bet to long at 1150.
cheers

[kilgallp] 03/3/2015 09:49

Another good quarter, well done Geoff and the team.