Ashmore Global Opportuni... Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 04/5/2013 21:02

Continues to perform very poorly this investment trust.
Their annual report is very difficult to understand in terms of investment performance - they never seem to disclose cost and current valuation, so it's difficult to see what is doing well and what is doing badly.
There is a really poor comment by Jonathan Agnew in the Chairman's Report...feedback from shareholders etc. etc..."that the structure of a closed-end investment company was no longer appropriate for investments in special situation." - come on mate, have a mind of your own and don't just listen to what others are telling you. An investment trust is a perfectly suitable vehicle..it's just that Ashmore and the Board have performed below average!

[jaws6] 25/4/2013 14:36

cerrito
thanks for info above.
we wait for cheque next week and in june july for another

[cerrito] 25/4/2013 13:56

Reading this in the FT the other day given that ETH is their largest investment and looks a bit more positive-or perhaps fairer to say a bit less negative


Sugarcane: Brazil throws a lifeline to producers
Sugarcane producers in São Paulo, the epicentre of the industry in Brazil, which is the world's biggest exporter of the commodity, have been looking keenly at the skies.
Heavy rains were delaying what was expected to be one of the biggest harvests in recent times, projected by Bloomberg New Energy Finance at between 580m and 600m tonnes of crushed cane compared with last year's 532m tonnes.
Last week the weather cleared, the mills cranked up and the "crush" began.
"Under optimum conditions where you get a super good harvest, a big crush and high sugar throughput, then hydrous and anhydrous ethanol production is set to rise," says Harry Boyle, analyst with BNEF.
Brazilian analysts predict a large part of this harvest is bound for the country's "flex-fuel" motors – its fleet of cars that can run either on petrol blended with anhydrous ethanol (biofuel with negligible water content) or using only hydrous ethanol (fuel with 3-4 per cent water content).
Part of the reason for this is that Brazil is set to increase the ethanol blend in fuel from 20 per cent to 25 per cent from May 1 – and has announced tax cuts on the biofuel to throw a lifeline to struggling producers.
"The harvest this year compared with last year is going to favour ethanol production," says Antonio de Padua Rodrigues of Unica, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association.
The industry has been struggling to compete in recent years partly because of a government policy of keeping petrol prices low at the pump as an instrument to suppress inflation.
Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil producer, has been importing part of the nation's petrol needs and selling it at below international prices, hurting not only its own profits but also those of the ethanol industry.
The other aspect favouring ethanol this year is weaker sugar prices, which will push producers to convert more of the results of their cane output towards biofuel production.
In terms of exports, much will depend on the debate raging in the US, but Mr Rodrigues predicted this year that they would remain constant at about 3bn litres.

[jaws6] 19/4/2013 09:15

rns out last night on Compulsory Partial Redemption of Shares at 773 for more then 19% this month and more to come in June .
so better then what some said here before

[jaws6] 18/4/2013 13:32

skyship
RNS report out - may be that nav down mainly due to from rns
- last line they on for return of money

Special Situations
The material detractor in this theme was MCX, which dropped 27% in the month. The negative per-formance of the Indian stock markets hurt overall risk sentiment, but the main driver of the poor per-formance was due to certain proposed negative regulatory changes and a liquidity overhang on ac-count of the expiration of a lock-up of shares held by insiders that saw the public float increase from 20% to 80%. MCX continues to dominate the Indian futures market with a 87% market share and is one of the largest commodities futures exchanges globally, with over 40 different commodities trad-ed. Recent exits have occurred via secondary market sales.

[eeza] 17/4/2013 17:58

One way to reduce the discount.

[skyship] 17/4/2013 13:19

Down 2% from 789p at end February.

[jaws6] 17/4/2013 10:45

NAV rns out 773

[centipede] 26/3/2013 11:00

Could be, Edwardt, and let's hope so!
I'm probably going to hold 'til Dec '14, and then evaluate what's happened, and what they say they are going to do.

[edwardt] 26/3/2013 09:40

it also boils down to how they value these private equity holdings. I am no expert but i suspect that they agree with the auditors a carrying value and then apply a chunky discount to that to reflect the illiquidity. rarely am i an optimist but one could hope that they are holding values down till a trade buy or ipo.. however as you say, it is still likley to take 2 to 3 years to unwind..

[centipede] 25/3/2013 19:26

Thanks for that, Marben100 - makes sense, and explains why the share price hasn't gone higher.

[marben100] 25/3/2013 18:15

"anybody know why it's all going to take nearly five years?"

For many of the underlying assets, there's probably not much of a secondary market. Therefore, they have to wait until maturity, when debt is (should be!) repaid or PE investments are realised.

The falling NAV represents the poor secondary market for the underlying investments (+increasing risk perception). It is possible that there will be NAV GAINS on asset realisations - but I'm not banking on it.

Cheers,

Mark

[centipede] 25/3/2013 17:54

I've just bought some AGOL, and am interested about how this is going to play out.

The main attraction is the discount to NAV. On 28.2.13 the NAV was £7.89, and the shares recently cost me £5.85. This means that if they liquidated, then I should get a 35% uplift.

However, they are going to take their time over winding up, with quarterly redemptions of shares at NAV, totalling 50% by Dec 2014. The remaining portfolio may take even longer to realise – up to three or more years beyond this.

The basic problem with this share is that the underlying value (NAV) has gone down significantly over time – a reduction of 22% over the last 5 and a half years, with no signs of this changing.

The underlying investment approach is 'Dynamic strategy investing across all Ashmore's investment themes including external debt, local currency, special situations (incorporating distressed debt and private equity), corporate high yield and equity'. However, as far as I can see, the succes of the underlying investments rests on unknowable things such as the future price of ethanol in Brazil, with the invested-in company currently taking on more debt.

I am therefore doubtful if we can expect NAV to increase, and the long term trend might even continue.

Given a 50% return of NAV over the next 21 months, along with a halving of our shares, I make this equivalent to approx 13% per annum over that period. OK, but not stonking, and the NAV could always (continue to) fall.

Shame they can't just sell up straight away – anybody know why it's all going to take nearly five years?

[jaws6] 25/3/2013 08:19

2 RNS on fri close ,so are we near tender details ?

[badtime] 20/3/2013 19:34

NAV up slightly?

[badtime] 13/3/2013 14:21

So thts been passed ..approx 10% back in April and same again by end of year ..now we hav to see how the assets perform

[badtime] 01/3/2013 13:18

Well It was about 30% in a short time frame ..but only on a nibble ..thnx!

[eeza] 01/3/2013 13:02

Well all profit is good !!

[badtime] 01/3/2013 12:46

I was in IOF ..I think after you mentioned it on another thread..I made a tidy profit ..but it is a share that is inclined to jump around and I havnt really got time to watch it as work is about to get busy

[eeza] 01/3/2013 12:12

Usually drop the bid back down each day - but inching up.



Saw you on the IOF thread, are you in there?

[badtime] 01/3/2013 11:38

Bid up to £6....nice to see the spread small

[badtime] 28/2/2013 15:48

Bid back up to 5.95 ... I do wonder if they are a tad short

[jaws6] 25/2/2013 12:19

not long to go for agm Wednesday 13 March 2013,
to get more idea

[badtime] 25/2/2013 12:01

They brought the bid up to £6 someone sold ..took it down again...short of stock?

[badtime] 25/2/2013 11:59

Starting to look interesting