Ashmore Global Opportuni... Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 04/2/2013 15:55

jeffries note today shows an irr of 10% net of the management fees and ipo costs to end of 14 on illiquid assets. This is a good return as most irr calcs i see do not fact in amc's and redemption fees. I still think there is some mileage here.

[jaws6] 04/2/2013 14:28

edwardt
So far have not seen any thing from brokers yet
Have you seen any thing ?

Re quarterly distributions might get more if one of them ipo or sale get more more money.

edit-waiting for update on this Dec one

[edwardt] 04/2/2013 08:23

some important detail in there. I suspect brokers and arbs are busy altering thier assumptions on their respective irr calculations. The notion of quarterly distributions and the slightly improved charging structure does make this better irr than many are currently assuming....

[jaws6] 04/2/2013 08:16

At last we know in 2 years to get 20 % or more

[rambutan2] 04/2/2013 02:12

Yes, wonder how much share price will jump on today's opening...

Capital return strategy

The Company's portfolio is at present invested approximately 85% in funds managed by the Investment Manager ("Funds") and approximately 15% in three direct investments. Approximately 70% of the portfolio is invested in Special Situations, mainly in five Special Situations funds, which by the date of the EGM will, where applicable, all have reached or be shortly reaching the end of their investment periods and in the three direct investments, which are all co-investments with the Special Situations funds. For those Funds which are still in their investment period, the Company may be required to make further capital commitments in respect of amounts which are currently undrawn.

Conditional upon the approval of the Proposals by shareholders, the Board intends to distribute shortly after 31 March 2013 the cash and liquid funds currently available for distribution by the Company to shareholders by way of a pro rata redemption of shares at NAV.

The Board will make subsequent quarterly distributions to shareholders once investments are realised and the proceeds of such realisations are received by the Company. The Board will make quarterly distributions, by way of pro rata redemptions of shares based on the Company's NAV at 31 March 2013, 30 June 2013, 30 September 2013, 31 December 2013 and quarterly thereafter, provided the Company holds cash or cash equivalent proceeds at such quarter end of at least $10 million. The Board may also make distributions by way of dividends or otherwise return capital to shareholders.

The Board expects that approximately $60 million will be available for distribution to shareholders shortly after 31 March 2013, a further approximately $75 million will be realised during the following six months and, including the above mentioned distributions, in total approximately 50% of the current NAV will be available for distribution by 31 December 2014. The remaining portfolio is expected to be realised beyond this date and may take three further years or longer.

[badtime] 01/2/2013 21:46

Very interesting RNS issued late on

[cerrito] 19/1/2013 21:16

Good point edwardt
in the last quarter of 2012 cash went up from 2.7% of pflio at 9.12 to 11.1% with special situations going down from 85.8% to 69.3%,

[edwardt] 18/1/2013 11:23

the good news in the rns is that the llps distributed cash in december - cash now 11% or so. hence nav vol will be less going forward. i also note the private equity holdings keep getting written down - not so good..

[jaws6] 18/1/2013 11:07

yeap
still 15to 20% plus in managed wind down to come

[badtime] 18/1/2013 11:01

ye down slightly ..i hold a few ...do u jaws?

[jaws6] 18/1/2013 10:08

RNS of GBP 7.82 NAV

[edwardt] 03/1/2013 17:09

a managed wind down is evidenlty the best outcome we could have hoped for and certainly offers hope for me to get my money back!

[gilston] 26/12/2012 11:14

Great Xmas rally. Will it hold?

[edwardt] 12/12/2012 10:47

happy days

[edwardt] 10/12/2012 16:24

i think my thesis is panning pout, we shall see what the january announcement brings.

[edwardt] 30/11/2012 10:10

i think my point is that a large chunk of the llps are nearing maturity , hence they will revert to cash in the next year or so. AGOL as a permanent capital fund would evidently want to roll these into another 6 year life llp. The announcement would hopefully infer the board will give due consideration to putting the trust in run off. This surely would help the discount to narrow a little.. shareholders must be pressuring for this as quite simply the manager has not delivered.

[cerrito] 28/11/2012 23:14

You make an interesting point edwardt in your 43 that you want the cash generated to be spent controlling the discount rather than making new investments.
I note that in H1 12 they received $28m in realizations and invested $35m-albeit this $35m was in 2 liquid funds.
I note that at June 30 they had just under $1m in cash ie the minimum amount they need I assume and in the footnotes there is no record of them having a borrowing facility so not sure where they are going to get the cash.
Remember too they have commitments-not sure the likelihood of them being triggered. see note 12. They have at least E3m and $15m.

[edwardt] 22/11/2012 10:10

well the recent announcement from the board may well help my thesis somewhat!

[edwardt] 02/11/2012 17:06

ok i am going to say it, this is ready to turn in a big way, buyers seem to have appeared beyond the buy back. -

[edwardt] 25/10/2012 17:36

well the board must be under some pressure to do something. the buy back is not working. they need a big statement of intent. No new investments whilst the discount remains at more than 15% for example. they use six year life llps to invest in and the last thing i want to see is realised cash rolled over when my money is held in a share price that bears little resemblance to the nav.

I hope investors see that the underyling are not a bunch of distressed assets. the manager and the board need to offer better visibility on the financial progress rather than fob investors off with a one line comment about whether a holding is in front or behind plan.

in short, i am well miffed but refuse to sell when i think there remains embedded value here.

[janeann] 22/10/2012 09:53

Agree, and as they hold all the shares they are buying up, and if they were to realise the value, well as you say it could look very cheap. One wonders for how long the decline can continue ....

[gilston] 21/10/2012 22:41

Shareholders are clearly voting with their feet & selling the shares. The Directors` discount control measures are not working.It all depends on what view you take of the valuation of the underlying assets, which are principally unlisted equity stakes in emerging markets.

It might of course be argued that the shares are now very cheap, relative to nav..........

Ashmore will suffer reputational damage unless they do something soon about the performance.

[janeann] 21/10/2012 22:10

i just dont understand what is going on here, and what happens as/if the share price goes on dropping?

[gilston] 18/10/2012 09:25

But the share price has not moved, the discount has widened. What good is that?