Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[alphahunter] 26/9/2015 01:41

FT, today

Once upon a time people thought central banks could boost business investment by lowering interest rates.

Thus America had its Large-Scale Asset Purchase programmes, which, according to the Fed, lowered longer-term Treasury yields. Again, according to the Fed, part of the appeal of these purchases was the impact they would have on investors with fixed income liabilities. Unable to hit their return targets with safer bonds they would be forced to buy riskier instruments, which, in theory, should improve the flow of credit to businesses and households and therefore spending.

The plan worked, from a certain point of view. Most of the US government bonds bought by the Fed were sold by foreigners, and for the most part they used their proceeds to buy newly issued dollar-denominated corporate bonds. The problem was that these new bonds overwhelmingly funded companies outside the US, often firms based in emerging market countries that wanted to exploit the yield spread between local currency financial assets and dollar liabilities.

[alphahunter] 21/9/2015 12:14

September's flows aint no good so far.
Will the FED's procastination reverse EM's recent debt pain in the next few weeks?

[micos] 16/9/2015 20:25

I'm holding on to this one as it heads steadily upwards. Happy to hold with the promised dividend.

[alphahunter] 10/9/2015 10:59

Following the Q, a few modest cuts in price targets from brokers.
FT article with a negative bias - market conditions not company specific.

Bought some Henderson this am @260p - so relative value here we come!

[alphahunter] 08/9/2015 11:15

Sound fixed-cost control, FX and performance fee saved the day.
Dividend upped by 1%.

Sharp fall in AUM up to June and data suggest that this had got worst in the summer for the EM debt industry.

Numis to upgrade?

Keep the [edit] short position as it is.

Stock up 5.5% @ 257p.

[nav_mike] 08/9/2015 08:25

Most impressively they didnt cut the dividend and in fact increased it....shares now yielding around 6.5% which should hopefully put a floor under the price.

[philo124] 08/9/2015 07:55

Decent statement.

[alphahunter] 04/9/2015 18:18

Thanks chaps, I'm aware that this is a crowded trade.
I feel that the Management was over-confident about the return of smart money into emerging debt. They did not buy shares following their statement of guarded confidence.

Outflow out of emerging debt funds has been relentless in the last 6 weeks. Naturally, a) some of Ashmore funds are close-end / discretionary portfolios which alleviates some of the risk for shrinking AUM and b) the share is quoted in £ yet the business generates $-revenues - which should alleviate the impact of the weak local-currency debt markets, but I still think that there is a downside risk to revenues. Sadly, I don't have the time nor the insight of a broker to find out wether their funds outperform their respective indices / peers.

Ashmore launched a Chinese equity fund at the end of June.

[quepassa] 03/9/2015 15:48

Do your own homework.


Odey has been making a LOT of mistakes this year on shorts and has lost much on several shorts.


Sometimes a Big Short can work dramatically in your favour if you are long, when the share price rises.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[hjs] 03/9/2015 15:38

Odey short position stands at 6.55% on 1 Sept 2015. This is massive. Be careful if one is planning to buy this share.

[alphahunter] 03/9/2015 02:26

Stock down from 255p to 244p in an otherwise up market.
Still a good short I think.

[alphahunter] 24/8/2015 18:58

Emerging market debt whether in LC or $ is taking a hit.
Will volume follow?

[nav_mike] 02/7/2015 08:39

Aye i can see that, was wondering about broker updates etc...

Edit - only one i can see today is Numis cutting from Add to Hold

[nav_mike] 02/7/2015 08:17

Thats a nasty mark down to start the day when market is generally calm

Any news out there?

[philo124] 01/7/2015 23:28

Thx a lot.

[quepassa] 01/7/2015 17:15

Last post refers.

Further reduction by ODEY of its short position on Ashmore on 29th June by another 0.19% down from 5.86% to 5.69%

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 07:21

IMPORTANT NEWS.


ODEY - the largest declared short position holder on Ashmore Group- has continued reducing its short position according to today's FCA declarable positions.


As at 24/2/15 Odey had a short position of 6.45%

-On 7/5/15 it was reduced to 6.25%

-on 9/6/15 it was further reduced to 6.15%

and......

-Last week on 10/6/15, Odey's short had further been reduced to 5.86%


Three reductions in the space of just over a month at a time when the share price has been on an uptrend. This looks like the emergence of a pattern to me.



That is interesting.


If this pattern of reducing their short position continues, it will certainly drive demand for the shares and may or may not lead to a bear-squeeze.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philo124] 21/5/2015 16:21

Good top up at 260p. I had nearly given up on this but my broker has met Mark Coombes and really rates him.

[quepassa] 21/5/2015 16:05

Pushing ahead steadily now.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 12/5/2015 07:22

THERE SHE BLOWS!!

ODEY's Big Short on Ashmore.

Reading today's FCA short positions disclosure, it is shown that ODEY has reduced its position on Ashmore.

On 7th. May, Odey reduced its position by 0.20% from 6.45% to 6.25%.

With a surging Ashmore share price over the last few days, now up to 320p+, and in particular since the c. 250p lows of February, one cannot perhaps - in my opinion only- rule out the possibility that Odey may further wish to reduce this position.

Earlier posts refer.

After Odey's recent embarrassment on their Aussie dollar position which badly went against them, this relatively gigantic short on Ashmore Group may or may not be at the forefront of their minds.

Do the math for yourself.

Ashmore Group have a market cap of some £2.3billion.

Odey have a whopping residual 6.25% short, according to public-domain info from the FCA short disclosures to-day. - That is in my view, one hell of a position.

Putting that to one side, Emerging Market jitters are subsiding perhaps at the moment.

Wow!I personally would not like to be sitting on such a massive position at this point in time on Ashmore.

Good luck, Odey. I think you'll need it.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 11/5/2015 13:10

Now strengthening by the day.

The 5%+ dividend is a major factor, cannot be ignored and underpins the current share price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 08/5/2015 14:20

Looking stronger.

Odey may have lined themselves up for a bear squeeze on this one.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 07/5/2015 07:08

Re ODEY.

Today's FT page 22.

"Odey's short on Australian dollar costs it dearly"

Odey's flagship hedge fund slumped 19.3% last month.



I haven't researched which Odey fund holds the big Ashmore short, but having lost a bundle on their Aussie dollar short, I guess that Odey must be reviewing all short positions actively - and perhaps not without some anxiety.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP