Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 20/7/2015 13:36

Move has started at the 60 bed Grimsby extra care scheme. The good news is that the scheme is oversubscribed and will be full by mid August.

hxxp://www.ashleyhouseplc.com/files/7414/3712/6473/ECH_press_release_AH_160715.pdf

[mathewawood] 20/6/2015 20:29

Most of the posters here seemed to have forgotten about the health side of the business. With new medical centres being put on hold while the govt got its act together. But things are now starting to happen:



Maybe this is the reason behind the sharp spike in the share price

[whites123] 15/6/2015 07:57

The level of oversold status should be immediately known once a couple of PI buys come in.
If the share price rises on small trades then a classic squeeze is on and I would envisage a meteoric rise.

As ASH is such an unknown stock amongst the masses its just as likely we could sit for hours without a trade at all. (It has been this situation that has caused the dramatic decline in share price to start with)
With transformational news just around the corner, building work improving and a much more focussed and higher emphasis on care for eh aged the stock really is only likely to be going one way.

"With schemes now starting under the Company's new model, interest and enquiries have increased. The pipeline of work is likely to show a healthy increase when published with the preliminary results. The Board's focus continues to be on long term financing for this pipeline, securing this will transform the Company's outlook."

[whites123] 12/6/2015 21:34

Oregano,

As you say something is brewing and coupled with the volume possible to sell its clear as daylight we have a buyer.

1,000 maximum online buy vs 200,000 possible to sell...
No one, no one at all with a brain cell can deny there is a squeeze on.

I entered a dummy sell for over 200,000 and that was directed to market, but if it were the level playing field on both sides it would have directed that way at the same poxy 1,000

There is a group of gamblers / traders who follow forums and if they get wind of it it could and will have the effect of propelling this northwards with huge gusto.

That wouldn't bother me in the slightest as far from that being a pump and dump it would force the hands of those who are seeking to accumulate at what is a knockdown price even at double todays share price

These guys don't have the inclination to buy £10k each and more, but they do swarm en mass.. therefore whoever it is that is accumulating and wanting many hundreds of thousands of shares will have no option but to up the anti and pay the going rate at that time.

I suspect there could be fun next week as more and more private investors (traders and gamblers) start to notice this stock

[oregano] 12/6/2015 16:29

this move has to be about finalising the funding. As per their last statement, their pipeline was £175m. they budget to make 10% margins. So £17.5m of value to shareholders. No tax to pay for some time due to £8.2m of tax losses. NTAs £14m.

Mkt cap £5m.

[whites123] 12/6/2015 16:02

Originally bought these at 33p after Directors lumped in (from memory also at 33p)
Bought more on the dips and then more on the dips.
Then bought as it rose and more as it rose.
Core holding @ average 18p now.

Holding has become substantial enough that whilst no declaration is required if entering a buyout then I would be required to declare.

Over the years I developed a line into the company and whilst never ever being entrusted with price sensitive material it is often that we can glean answers to questions that are not price sensitive but can assist us in adding up.

Today I can sell 200,000 @ 7.9p
I can buy... 5,000 @ 8.5p

You do not have to be a rocket scientist to understand that there is a buyer in the background who is happy to chase the stock price higher to ensure stock is obtained.
At what price would this stop?
The company is clearly without a shadow of a doubt about to turn the corner, and the 100% rise we have witnessed very quietly in the past few weeks will be repeated again just as easily.

Gamblers, traders and investors would be well positioned and advised to fill their little booties here..
Sure, its not oil :-) but its a goldmine in its own rights.

Work out directors average holding price to get a rough idea about what the share price would need to reach just to allow them break even point, then call and speak and gauge the optimism in their chat..

[yump] 12/6/2015 15:43

Despite my small stake here, I don't really understand the business model (so why did I buy them doh ?) and in general I understand a lot of models.

So my guess is that the buying is from folk who actually do understand it properly and can respond to what they see in the future and not the current newsflow. On the other side of the coin I can imagine that a fair bit of the selling is from folk like me who thought the story sounded good a while ago, especially with the price rising or stable, but haven't really grasped it at all, so just sell out with it falling.

I still would probably have no idea whether news was good or bad, apart from actual figures posted on results.

[irenekent] 12/6/2015 13:55

Unless they built it I'm not sure if this is related to this company. The care home is run by BUPA I think.

[norbert colon] 09/6/2015 12:30

Original message removed as not relevant.

[norbert colon] 09/6/2015 09:59

Oregano

Agreed, the selling by Invesco has been a major factor on the share price devaluation over at least the last year. We are at a very low base - some metrics:

Price T/book - 0.32
Price / Sales - 0.5
Net current assets - circa 4.5p

Don't get me wrong I really want to see the business recover and prosper but more and more keep seeing a lot of big price movements where news can only be leaking out. Not much a PI can do other than keep his eyes and ears open.

Good luck to all invested and lets hope for some positive news updates.

[oregano] 09/6/2015 09:43

there are a few things one has to bear in mind.

was the share price too low to start with? it was depressed by Neil Woodford's old fund at Invesco selling. Woodford backed them, the guy who took over his fund, many £bn in size, is jettisoning under performing micro caps. He is not going to be price sensitive as this holding is a rounding error for him.

Secondly Book value is £13.8m. So whilst the market cap might be low, it is still well below book value.

Mu guess is that we hear an update on development and the M&G funding soon, and that is what is driving the share price.

[norbert colon] 09/6/2015 09:29

For the valuation of a company to rise +110% in less than a month there is something fishy going on here. As an investor I am always pleased to see sustainable capital appreciation but given this is AIM etc it would appear news is leaking out and causing the recent spike. I am surprised their NOMAD has not asked them to make a statement re: share price movement. Lets see what transpires. I have been invested since 2013 so I am not new to the company but am very underwater and like all others would like to see / hear some factual positive news.

[scburbs] 09/6/2015 08:54

Still looking very binary.

Very strong extra care pipeline, all about pipeline conversion and financing.

[someuwin] 09/6/2015 08:52

Still looking very cheap.

[18bt] 08/6/2015 18:09

Time for a new thread then?

[paleje] 08/6/2015 14:39

Nice summary for newcomers Steve, pity it can't be pinned in header but I think we're unmanned in that dept.

[topvest] 08/6/2015 11:46

Yes, starting to look they might be making some progress at last. Fingers crossed!

[someuwin] 08/6/2015 10:48

Starting to move up.

[someuwin] 04/6/2015 14:55

Funding news will see this rocket...

"With schemes now starting under the Company's new model, interest and enquiries have increased. The pipeline of work is likely to show a healthy increase when published with the preliminary results. The Board's focus continues to be on long term financing for this pipeline, securing this will transform the Company's outlook."

[topvest] 04/6/2015 10:53

Starting to look a bit more positive - good news on the way?