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ARW Arrow Global Group Plc

307.00
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Arrow Global Group Plc LSE:ARW London Ordinary Share GB00BDGTXM47 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 307.00 307.00 307.50 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

Showing 751 to 772 of 1400 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  32  31  30  29  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
03/7/2014
09:00
I am hoping to hear from the Company shortly...will ask them about the lack of details in their RNS
nurdin
01/7/2014
13:02
Interesting how they haven't disclosed the ERCs of the loan portfolios acquired. I though that was the main indicator of value? Face value is just meaningless as we all know the majority of the debt will never be paid.
stemis
30/6/2014
13:17
cutting edge technology :o)

Thanks Aisha

nurdin
30/6/2014
13:14
Chart shows a distinct sawblade formation the significance of which evades me.
cestnous
30/6/2014
12:54
Canaccord - BUY with 318p target
aishah
30/6/2014
09:00
oiught to get to 290p imho
opodio
30/6/2014
08:49
Their timing here could be excellent...Portugal seems to emerging out from the ravages of economical melt down over the last few year ..
nurdin
30/6/2014
07:30
That is correct. No time allowance for collecting on defaulted loans.

Also, some form of national ID system to easily locate debtors.

technofiend
30/6/2014
07:02
its forever!
opodio
30/6/2014
07:01
Excellent announcement, as if I remember correctly, the time allowance before loans expire is longer in Portugal than elsewhere. Will have to check.
cestnous
30/6/2014
06:23
Nice RNS this morning and great to hear the purchase was ahead of expectations.
vb79
28/6/2014
10:09
"All we need is interest rates to rise and bobs your l'oncle"

But if interest rates rise then surely that will mean debtors will have a more difficult time in paying off their debts?

This could be offset by rising wages and employment but in the IPO prospectus it states the following:

"Rising interest rates could impair the ability of customers to pay their debts which could have a material adverse effect on the Group's financial condition, financial returns and results of operations.

Rising interest rates could impair the financial viability of customers who have variable interest rate obligations (such as home mortgages) or other significant debt that bears floating rate interest. This could, directly or indirectly, lead to a reduction in customers' disposable income and their ability to repay their debts to the Group"

technofiend
28/6/2014
08:55
Thanks Brian.. potentially nearly 50% upside from here then
nurdin
28/6/2014
07:28
Goldman Sachs conviction buy list 6 month price target 335
brianbadonde
27/6/2014
15:15
cheers Aisha

If Lowell are to be valued at £1bn on EBITDA of £117m,then it suggests to me that Arrow,who reported EBITDA of £89m recently, should be valued at £760m!! Current market cap is just £393m.Hope we will catch up...

Of course I havent taken debt into account...

nurdin
27/6/2014
13:01
TDR Said to Pick Banks for $1.7 Billion Lowell Offering

Lowell Group, the debt recovery business owned by U.K. buyout firm TDR Capital LLP, may be sold in an initial public offering that would value the company at about 1 billion pounds ($1.7 billion), said two people with knowledge of the matter.

TDR picked Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to manage the IPO in London, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren't public. The deal is slated for the second half of the year, one of the people said.

Lowell joins companies including insurer AA Plc and retailer GAME Digital Plc that have raised about $21 billion this year, making it the busiest first half since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Arrow Global Group Plc (ARW), a competitor to Lowell, raised 189 million pounds in an IPO in October. The stock has since gained about 7 percent.

aishah
24/6/2014
17:29
Growth will only come with more borrowings to buy more debt cestnous makes sense.
finess
17/6/2014
06:22
SHARE TIP SUMMARY
A prospective yield (based on 2014's forecast payout) of just over 2 per cent this year may be nothing special, but Arrow's growth potential is. Indeed, Panmure expects a compound EPS growth rate of earnings growth of 22 per cent between 2014 and 2016. And economic recovery could well bolster earnings prospects further as distressed borrowers become more able to repay loans. Yet Arrow's shares trade on under 14 times 2014's forecast earnings, which compares favourably to a forward rating of nearer 15-17 times for shares in arguably lower-growth lending operations that focus on sub-prime credit. That rating also looks undemanding compared with general financials sector average rating of around 16 times. As the growth rolls in, expect the shares to rerate. Buy.



All we need is interest rates to rise and bobs your l'oncle

bartolozzif
17/6/2014
06:08
Nice to see blue on red day.
vb79
13/6/2014
08:56
Nice summary by IC! Will this be in the printed version over the weekend?
mrmomentumt
13/6/2014
07:32
I.C. tip today

Arrow's undervalued growth
SHARE TIPS AND UPDATES
Arrow Global Group PLC (ARW)
GROWTH
MEDIUM RISK

Bull points
Growing fast
Specialist collection skills
No shortage of debt books to buy
Shares undemandingly rated for sector

Bear points
Paying more for portfolios
Regulatory burden is growing
Buying distressed debt portfolios from mainstream lenders and wringing value out of them is fuelling robust growth at debt management specialist Arrow Global (ARW). Moreover, with plenty of loan books still up for sale, that impressive pace looks thoroughly sustainable. All of which leaves Arrow's shares too cheaply rated compared with those of financial service sector peers with less exciting prospects.

Based on data from management consultant OC&C, the UK debt purchase market is expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 11.5 per cent between 2012 and 2017. That significantly reflects regulatory pressure on banks to boost capital and writing back provisions by shedding non-performing loans is a great way to do that. Essentially, Arrow shouldn't struggle to find books to buy. Moreover, Arrow's prospects aren't limited to the UK. It already boasts a portfolio in Portugal with a face value of over €1.2bn (£1bn) and is eyeing further opportunities in the European market. During the first quarter alone, Arrow purchased debt portfolios with a face value of £246m, bringing its total portfolio's face value to £9.7bn. Analysts at broker Numis Securities expect Arrow's share of the debt purchase market to reach around 9 per cent by 2015 from just 2 per cent in 2010.


Funding further acquisitions shouldn't be problematic, either. Not only did Arrow's IPO last October raise £42m, but it issued £220m-worth of senior secured notes in January 2013 and also boasts a £55m revolving credit facility. True, buying portfolios is bolstering the group's net debt burden, which rose by over £23m in the first three months of the year to £201m. But, representing just over twice adjusted cash profits, that's not perceived by analysts as overly burdensome.

ARROW GLOBAL (ARW)
ORD PRICE: 229.5p MARKET VALUE: £400m
TOUCH: 229.5-230p 12-MONTH HIGH: 278p LOW: 207p
FWD DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.7% FWD PE RATIO: 11
NET ASSET VALUE: 62p NET DEBT: £201m
Year to 31 Dec Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m)* Earnings per share (p)* Dividend per share (p)
2011 50 6.2 na na
2012 66 14.0 na na
2013 95 33.5 16.1 nil
2014* 102 37.5 16.8 4.7
2015* 123 48.8 21.8 6.1
% change - +30 +30 +30
*Panmure Gordon forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures

Normal market size:10,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 1.25

Arrow's success, however, is about more than merely buying loans - generating a better return than the vendors could manage is key. With a return on equity of 26.5 per cent, Arrow is certainly managing that. This comes down Arrow's robust data collection and analysis skills, allowing it to better determine which borrowers can best pay off their debts and by how much. This focus, estimates Numis, allows Arrow to typically enhance the number of paying customers in a portfolio by 50 per cent - and that's after the vendors and various debt collection agencies have already worked hard to bolster collections. "We believe the data and analytical skills of Arrow are very hard to replicate and consequently make the group's superior returns sustainable," reckons Numis.

Still, it is getting costlier to buy debt books. The first quarter's total portfolio acquisitions cost the group £33.2m, which implies a purchase price of 13.5p per pound of face value. That's materially higher than the 4.2p level paid by Arrow out in 2013's first quarter. This, however, reflects "underlying asset quality more than competitive dynamics," say analysts at Goldman Sachs. The investment bank reckons that better recoveries and lower associated collection costs should support returns.

Regulatory change is another issue. There has been an increased focus on collection practices in recent years, leading to more stringent compliance requirements for debt purchasers. In April oversight for the sector passed from the Office of Fair Trading to the Financial Conduct Authority, too, bringing with it more regulation - potentially involving extras cost.

SHARE TIP SUMMARY
A prospective yield (based on 2014's forecast payout) of just over 2 per cent this year may be nothing special, but Arrow's growth potential is. Indeed, Panmure expects a compound EPS growth rate of earnings growth of 22 per cent between 2014 and 2016. And economic recovery could well bolster earnings prospects further as distressed borrowers become more able to repay loans. Yet Arrow's shares trade on under 14 times 2014's forecast earnings, which compares favourably to a forward rating of nearer 15-17 times for shares in arguably lower-growth lending operations that focus on sub-prime credit. That rating also looks undemanding compared with general financials sector average rating of around 16 times. As the growth rolls in, expect the shares to rerate. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 255p, 4 March 2014

cestnous
13/6/2014
07:16
Yes-IC Buy Tip
wynmck
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