Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 22:04

Typo....allow wholly owned AAU ore.....
Sorry

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 21:58

Hi D1G3Y
The reason I suggest that, licence conditions allowing, the 'exploitation' of a wholly owned kizilcuker/Ivrindi could take place at the exhaustion of the other JV pits is because the Kiziltepe plant is working to full capacity. Therefore if the JV were to charge a processing fee to allow wholly owned JV ore to pass through the plant it would necessarily reduce the amount of JV ore being processed. Bit of a Catch 22, the JV would generate revenue via a processing fee but would lose revenue because of lost production of its own ore

[d1g3y] 10/8/2019 18:47

Thanks JDWith a relatively low cost open pit model and the debts to be paid off early next year I wonder if AAU would consider going it alone?They would need to work out a processing fee with the JV and there would be the transportation costs but those Bonanza grades could make it very tempting

[42col] 10/8/2019 14:21

Charles I have missed you as well

[m20ash] 10/8/2019 14:14

Not sure any of the links will work as other letters and numbers are being changed. I give up! If you'd like to view it, please use the link on my post on the LSE board. Cheers, Ash

[charles clore] 10/8/2019 14:12

M20 - how about this

42col - I've missed you!

[42col] 10/8/2019 14:07

Plasybryn - it was a mistake sorry. I have increased my stake in AAU and I am very positive about the future. I looked up the share price predictions of PG for gold at $1500 very interesting.

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 13:48

I'm sure your valuable contribution is highly appreciated here even if people don't specifically comment. Thanks.

[42col] 10/8/2019 13:47

I feeling very good hope it continues. Drive fast and straight apart from the bends

[m20ash] 10/8/2019 13:21

Sorry, won't post on here. Keeps putting xx instead of tt. You may have to type into your browser.

[m20ash] 10/8/2019 13:20

hxxps://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8sGeqMq033y120p01

[m20ash] 10/8/2019 13:17

Hi sleveen, I bank with HSBC both here and in Turkey. Transfer funds to Turkey and back in sterling and then convert to TL in Turkey as required. Never had an issue, but then again we're not talking £millions!
Not sure if anyone has taken time to look at my projections that I first posted on the LSE board last week, but link provided again below. It's an excel spreadsheet that you can view/edit in browser or download to play around with to your heart's content. Everyone will have a different view on timelines, etc.
I have updated it further this morning and it now incorporates Tavsan from H2 2021 at 30k oz per annum with funding from cash.
It also now looks at how the increasing JV profit will potentially increase Ariana's profit and the effect on MCap and share price
In addition to this, the cash flow forecast gives an idea for the potential for dividend returns to parent companies to allow dividends to shareholders/share buyback and funds to finance Salinbas and acquisitions to fill the gap between the end of LOM for Kiziltepe and Tavsan.
Any questions, feel free to ask.
hxxps://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8sGeqMq033yl2Op0l

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 12:45

That's it JaynesDad. We've had the long drawn out cycle from a glint in Kerim's eye to a highly efficient, low cost gold mine, but now we are the cusp of much greater things. With more and more to explore & develop (including some great 100% owned assets), to build a second mine (Tavsan) and double production in short order, to be debt free in months, and be a significant generator of free cash. And importantly we are still only valued at just over £20m with a forward P/E ratio that looks very compelling.

[sleveen] 10/8/2019 12:42

When AAU need to transfer money from Turkey to UK, do AAU need authorisation permission from Turkey Govt/central bank etc.

My understanding is that Turkey have exchange controls, is that correct does anyone know?

Genuine question.

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 12:29

Another 10 years of no progress? They have achieved fantastic progress over the past 10 years. And if Kiziltepe/ Tasvan produces profit for AAU of c£10-25m pa as expected at various stages over the next 10 years from a MC of £20m, totally ignoring Salinbas which already has a reserve of 1 million oz with a target of 2.7m..... well if there are better opportunities out there then go for it!

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 12:29

In my opinion we have some real value accretive milestones coming up, which amazingly still aren't in any way priced in.

Have you looked at the Panmure Gordon share price targets for $1500 gold?

But the big ones for me are:-
1. Loan repaid
2. Tavsan work plan to production clarified with tick ups from the EIA, Finance, final permits, commissioning etc. along the way.
3. 8000 m drill programme results from Salinbas.
Etc.

[goldenshare888] 10/8/2019 12:06

Jeez, another 10 years of no progress, no thanks. There are better opportunities out there and that is part of the problem here.

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 10:15

We have to trust the BOD re Kizilcukur, they are no fools as we know. The net cash from Kizilcukur if the 50,000oz target is achieved (don't forget 'bonanza' grades have been encountered) is c.£40m at current POG/POS. Twice our current MC. From my perspective if the exploration at Kizilcukur reaches the target then between it and Invindri there is 3 years of production at the existing Kiziltepe plant. It is at AAUs, not Procceas, option to include Kizilcuker in the JV, and there is nothing in the JV agreement covering Invindri. So why don't AAU keep those 2 prospects (and maybe try to pick up a further licence(s) in the area) and acquire the plant from the JV when the other Kiziltepe pits and satellites are exhausted in, say, 10 years? After all when the JV pits are exhausted the Kiziltepe plant is worse than a chocolate teapot as far as Proccea is concerned, not only will it be redundant but will have to be dismantled, removed and the site 'beautified'. Just a thought.

[charles clore] 10/8/2019 10:10

PM bull run has only just started imho

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 10:00

But hopefully a lot more to come from gold yet.

[goldenshare888] 10/8/2019 09:46

It's another issue here!

:-/

They need to start capitalising on this rising Gold price and do some deals, especially Salinbas!!!

[charles clore] 09/8/2019 22:51

JD - If MDV said it then I wouldn't argue with that. Agree with you though, AAU would appear to be putting in more than 50% of input for an equal share of the proceeds.

[soulsauce] 09/8/2019 16:55

I would think the profits would be worked out in favour of Ariana until the 3x costs were paid.
I am sure they will put some mechanism in place.

[jaynesdad] 09/8/2019 16:32

Careful Charles, you are beginning to sound like me on the subject! This has been discussed at length before. The problem is that it is being sold at 3 x exploration costs into the JV, but AAU owns 50% of the JV. Therefore the net receivable by AAU for relinquishing total control is only 150% of Exploration costs, as MDV confirmed to me once. So effectively AAU only gains a profit of 50% of Exploration cost (net), plus of course half the profit from Kizilcukur going forward. I don't want to say any more because people disagree with me about the incredibly good deal I think Proccea has here so I'm shutting up! In fairness we agree on most other AAU related things :)

[charles clore] 09/8/2019 16:00

But JD - if AAU has already paid the full exploration cost how can that be fair?