Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaynesdad] 22/4/2019 11:45

Number of shares in issue is totally irrelevant.
BP could make itself into a penny share if it wanted to, by issuing 500 shares for each share it currently has in issue. Wouldn't make it a different company in any way or affect its prospects.

[bigglesbingham] 20/4/2019 19:22

I agree on market cap but think soul was getting at fact that number of shares is irrelevant , it's the market cap which is important. However so much going on with AAU who knows where the share price will end up.

[oakey1] 20/4/2019 18:57

See I wasn't being silly as biggles agrees with me with regard to the possible price...I never price in possible discoveries until they are actually discovered...seems like logic to me

[bigglesbingham] 20/4/2019 14:10

£45 million market cap as a maximum ? If Salinbas comes off anything up to £450 million. Joking apart I think 3-4.5 p is realistic without further discoveries

[charles clore] 20/4/2019 10:34

JC - I reckon those kinds of results on their own would pay for the drilling. All we would have to do is keep drilling, ship the cores to Kiziltepe and save the cost of settingup a mine.

[soulsauce] 20/4/2019 09:11

Drill result porn JC, I like it lol.

[rjwoodrjwood] 20/4/2019 08:39

They already have over 1m oz at Salinbas.....value that at 50-60$/oz in the ground, and already you have more than current M/cap.

[jc2706] 20/4/2019 07:56

It is worth remembering that MARL was taken over for £150m or thereabouts. You would have to say that this was on the basis of Hot Maden as that was their focus and the other assets had shown no sign of being anywhere near the same quality.

MARL only owned 30% of Hot Maden.

Salinbas hasn't shown the type of intercepts that they were hitting at Hot Maden but if they ever do it wouldn't take much of a leap of faith to compare the two deposits. Can you imagine the impact of drill results like 7m @ 526g/t or 75m @ 17.2g/t (actual drill results from Hot Maden). The share price would likely respond accordingly I suspect.

Sorry, I don't usually resort to 'drill result porn' but the Hot Maden results were something to get excited about for those that follow gold.

[jc2706] 19/4/2019 22:40

Only 18p per share? Damn, there I was convinced this was a 100 bagger but only possibly a 10 bagger!

[soulsauce] 19/4/2019 22:00

oakey the reason I said it was a silly statement is you have no idea what they will find at Salinbas.

Putting an upper value on the company because of the number of shares in issue is ridiculous.

I have been outspoken on the number of shares this company has issued as many will know but you can not put some mythical upper limit on the value here on how many shares are in issue when there is a lot more to it than the current production.

I am realistic in my valuations and I am not expecting silly valuations but with salinbas the possibility of big upside is possible and 10p+ could easily be possible.

[oakey1] 19/4/2019 21:42

Soulsauce why is it a silly statement?...if Aau was a clone of AAZ in its business which it is not it would be worth roughly 8.1p if you take aaz' current valuation as a guide...I'd personally be happy with 4p+ and don't feel I'm being silly whatsoever...you do realise a say MC of 200 mill for example would still only be around 18p a share?....I don't know what you are expecting but you should be realistic in your expectations

[plasybryn] 19/4/2019 18:10

Are you all getting your questions together for the end of month Shareholder meeting? Are many hoping to attend I wonder? Not well supported last year.

[soulsauce] 19/4/2019 17:12

ilostthelot it is hard to understand why the share price is still 1.9p producing as they are at the moment and each month the debt dropping off as Plasybryn has eloquently said and that is without the satellite projects and Tavsan.
But it doesn't help when share tips take risk off after making 10% and the house broker is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

However as I have always stated the big draw and the possible company changing project is salinbas. If results are good from there, and all signs point to that being the case, then all bets are off and so it is worth being invested just for that even though it is lowly valued on what we know.

oakey1 what a silly statement.

[plasybryn] 19/4/2019 16:52

Quite different imo. AAZ is far more mature with a great solid business and well run. Nice dividend now and reasonable upside potential but nothing like Ariana which I hope will be a multi bagger.I have great respect for the mgmt team at AAU and their ability to over deliver and under promise. I like the low costs and the security attached to having such a competent JV partner - Proccea. But the elephant in the room is bringing us another Hot Maden discovery as per Mariana Resources. With real drill progress to be made this year, I wouldn't want to out. Under the radar, small market cap. proven discovery skills and adequate free cash to fund the exploration makes this a no brainer for me.

[ilostthelot] 19/4/2019 16:41

Thanks Jc. Noted.

[ilostthelot] 19/4/2019 16:40

Plasyburn- thanks.
I'm trying to get up to speed. Still reading in between enjoying the nice weather.
I only hold AAZ. Who do rate to be a better investment currently out of the two?

[jc2706] 19/4/2019 16:40

I think that EV is a decent measure of valuation as an investment decision. I like companies with a decent portion of their value as debt as long as it is manageable as debt reduction usually translates into share price rises. I don't see AAU as a takeover target currently, although I wouldn't be surprised at a deal with Proccea at some point on the JV.

[plasybryn] 19/4/2019 16:27

What is the value in looking at the EV (Mkt Cap plus debt less cash). Helpful if looking at the take-over valuation perhaps, but not sure it helps assessing the share price. Obviously the EV is reducing as the loan is repaid meaning with a stagnant share price the Co. just gets more and more vulnerable (better value) to a takeover approach Even a multiple of earnings isn't really accurate as that doesn't take account of all the assets and the potential.Hence PG use a mix to arrive at that figures. I wonder if the target price has been updated?

[jc2706] 19/4/2019 16:02

That EV looks a little high to me. I confess that I am not in a position to work it out currently but they have cash and the debt burden in the JV (only 50% attributable) has been reduced considerably.

[ilostthelot] 19/4/2019 15:35

Thanks for the replies.

So $7M profit or £5M roughly. Pretty good.

Current enterprise value is £29,000,000
Assuming exchange rate of $1.3 to £1.

Its a fair investment from what I've seen so far. I'd obviously prefer to pay less!

[plasybryn] 19/4/2019 15:33

Soul - On ten times earnings the share price should be circa 5p. Why is it 1.8p? P.G. have a target of 2.8p I believe, but that is out of date. I would have thought 2.8p/3p now rising to who knows where, depending on the various drill results due this year (increased Life of Mine etc.) including Salinbas. Then Tavsan the second mine with another 30,000 ozs in 2021 (?) and perhaps idc a second ball at Kiziltepe increasing production. And as Biggles says pretty well loan free by Q1 2020, meaning we are throwing off masses of free cash.
With a 2 year perspective, 1.8p stills seems an amazing bargain to me. But make your own minds up.

[oakey1] 19/4/2019 15:25

After looking into this share deeper I think the best share price we can expect in the future is 4.5p....too many shares exist

[bigglesbingham] 19/4/2019 14:23

The debt is all but repaid in 11 months. Sorry I didn't realise you were taking debt into account. Soul is correct in my opinion. Bye the way this company is exceptionally well run by very ethical men. However as I have told them the choice of brokers has been poor. There are reasons which they have told me but jury is very much out .

[soulsauce] 19/4/2019 13:12

Given they have produced 7200+ oz in the last quarter and gold average of $1300 and assuming costs similar at $400 then that is $1.75m to Ariana after full costs which if followed through would be $7m profit for the year.