Aquatic Food Share Discussion Threads

[andyr42] 24/1/2017 11:24

No sh*t....AMAZING!!!

[miahkaysor] 24/1/2017 11:24

50p today!!!!!!

[galeforce1] 24/1/2017 11:22

traderM

AFG's profit for 9 months Jan-Sept 2016 is already 63m RMB (about £7.4m). So Whole Year profit to Dec 31st should comfortably make £10m.

Cash on the balance sheet is an amazing 432m RMB (£52m). That's about three times mcap at market open today.

[andyr42] 24/1/2017 11:20

bought a few this am ... cheap as chips (even fish & chips)

[miahkaysor] 24/1/2017 11:19

50p a share??Should be interesting.

[tradermick1] 24/1/2017 11:14

Looks like the Haik gamblers are trying their luck here.

So you are expecting £10 mil profit next to a current £17 mil cap

High risk, wide spread, illiquid but if it spikes those in early can make a killing.

[galeforce1] 23/1/2017 15:16

Amazing share price rise today at Haike (HAIK) another Chinese AIM-listed stock. Up about 100% as I type, taking its market cap from £5m to around £10m.

If AFG can produce a decent Q4 trading statement it would be nice to think something similar could happen here. Perhaps not quite so dramatic. But perhaps the market cap could move from the current £15m to something more sensible like £25m.

AFG is in many ways more investable than Haike. It's a bigger company, with a turnover almost twice Haike's. Haike's unaudited profit for 2015 is about £2m, whereas AFG should do something closer to £10m.

A re-rating here is imminent, I think.

[galeforce1] 31/12/2016 16:48

Caradog - no problem. It's nice to see that someone else is taking an interest in this totally unloved stock. But I suppose it's not surprising that the remaining Chinese companies on AIM are still unloved, given the series of disasters and frauds in 2015 (with Naibu, Camkids etc).

Although AFG mainly sells frozen fish I think they also sell some fresh fish, but I don't know what the proportion is. Someone asked that question at the AGM. I don't remember the answer.

Hopefully we will see the AFG share price doing well in 2017. It's possible the company will take on a broker and try to give it a bit of a push later this year. The UK-based NEDs said they advised the board that any attempt to do that in 2016 would be a waste of time and effort. I'm sure that was the correct advice. But with a strong new CFO in place, and calmer views towards Chinese companies beginning to be heard, a marketing push might work better now. But the company would need to suggest a better divi, I think.

We should see the full year results a bit earlier this year, maybe in March or April. The AGM might get moved forward to June. Perhaps the Chinese execs will visit then as part of the marketing push.

We should see the Q4 trading statement around the end of Jan/ beginning of Feb. Nothing much is going to happpen till then. I'm tempted to add, but already have quite a big holding, after regular buying through 2016.

[caradog] 29/12/2016 23:57

I stand corrected, Galeforce. I got it all wrong about the type of products they deal in i.e frozen rather than canned. Editing my post to remove inaccuracies.

[galeforce1] 29/12/2016 18:56

Caradog

The atttraction of AFG is that it really doesn't have to expand a lot. It just needs to keep on doing what it's doing - which is selling about £100m of fish products across China at a decent margin. As the Chinese become ever richer they are likely to buy more fish, which is expensive in all countries.

As shareholders we just need the company to re-rate to a sensible p/e. At some point this will happen. It would help if they raised the dividend.

AFG aren't selling a lot of canned fish (as I understand it). Most of their product is frozen fish.

If there's a threat to the business it probably comes from the supply side, IMO. Having fished out their own seas, for how long can China hope to go on buying huge quantities of fish from all over the rest of the world? Will Scotland be happy to go on selling them 1000 tonnes of mackerel each year (for instance)?

At some point I suspect that AFG will have to start sourcing largely from farmed fish. But this process will probably be gradual. In the short to medium term it looks like a solid and sustainable business.

[wstirrup] 28/12/2016 01:26

And yet you continue to post negative comments Ad-nauseum...

Perhaps, we here have heard your message, and choose to believe, that it is cheap precisely because people are not aware of it, or are frightened off by tales of woe from yesteryear regarding Chinese companies.

And whilst it is true, many Chinese companies are selling snake oil. Sea-food, is a staple food, with a steady future linked as it is, to population growth, and should continue to grow at a modest pace.

That said, selling to a larger number of stores/retailers, and perhaps doing what Apple did, and expanded into vertical integration with boats, markets, warehouses/freezers etc., and then into retail, this might help grow the business above trends.

THAT is what I am hoping for...

W.

[mister md] 16/11/2016 09:00

I notice your post setting up an action group for JQW in Dec 2015
Hopefully not another action group needed for Aquatic in Dec 2016 ?!


"galeforce1 - 15 Dec 2015 - 15:33:24 - 8665 of 8683 JQW - In second place to $100 billion Alibaba. - JQW
Thanks davidosh. Good suggestion.

Seems to be plenty of interest in a PI action group.

If anyone is interested email to [e-mail] or private message on advfn to galeforce1"

[mister md] 16/11/2016 08:33

galeforce1 - totally agree with you that not all Chinese companies are corrupt. Except the ones listed on AIM usually are, at least 9/10 of them, and hoping that this is the 1/10 that isn't corrupt is a big risk to take. A p/e ratio of 1 is telling you something

[galeforce1] 15/11/2016 23:48

Mister MD

The 'stink' exists only in your imagination. You think that all Chinese companies are corrupt, which they are not.

[mister md] 15/11/2016 15:32

I've come across these types of shares a lot over past 10 years - if it stinks of rotten fish its rotten imho but good luck with your investment

[galeforce1] 15/11/2016 13:46

Mister MD

Stick with Taylor Wimpey (et al) if you're after solid institutional holdings.

If there were solid institutional holdings in AFG the P/E would be 10, not 1.

A big spread always means that the price is wrong. It's either too expensive or too cheap. In this case it's too cheap!

[mister md] 15/11/2016 12:57

a bid-offer spread of 28% is also a red flag (as if we didn't need any more)

[galeforce1] 14/11/2016 08:48

Caradog -

AFG are claiming gross margins of 24.5%, net margins of 10-11%.

They are not the retailer. They are the processor and supplier of fresh and frozen fish products, so I don' think those figures look so outrageous. A bit higher than Unilever, but you would expect that (Unilever has net margins of around 9%). Comparing AFG to Tesco really isn't helpful.

I agree those scams you nearly got caught in last year were a disgrace, but they are unlikely to repeat. The Chinese govt is supporting actions to prosecute those companies.

See www.chinaresolutions.com

[caradog] 14/11/2016 08:36

Galeforce,
I held Camkids for a while, based on an IC analysis and recommendation. But a closer look at the business model got me to sell out sharpish. I followed other notorious scams such as Naibu, China Chaintek, etc, etc, in utter disbelief as supposed "experts" stood by as the city wide boys actively aided what can only be described as an industrial scheme for fleecing investors without any risk of being arrested or punished.
One of the key metrics that set the alarm bells ringing for me was Camkids claim that they were achieving margins of around 37%, i.e. well above competitors like Adidas who had enormous advantages of scale.
AFG are claiming margins of 24%. Do you really believe this, when you consider that the canning business is well over 100 years old, fish is a staple food with little added value, and that AFG are selling to wholesalers rather than selling recognised brands directly to retailers?
I believe Tesco food suppliers are running on something like 2-5%.

[galeforce1] 13/11/2016 16:28

Brwo

Please give it a rest! We get the picture.

You think every Chinese company on AIM is a scam, and nothing's going to change your mind.

Other people don't think that. They think some smaller Chinese companies represent an opportunity, and AFG in particular.

Let's just agree to differ.

[brwo349] 13/11/2016 14:55

Lets look at the shareholders. Any well-known names there? Nope. Chinese, off-shore you name it. How dodgy can you get.


allotted and issued 50,000,000 Ordinary Shares (The “Consideration Shares”) to the Initial
Investors: 25,500,000 Ordinary Shares to Oceanic Expert, 2,000,000 Ordinary Shares to First
Honour Ventures Limited, 2,250,000 Ordinary Shares to Righton Investment Limited,
2,400,000 Ordinary Shares to One Capital Group Investment (Malta) Limited, 2,250,000
Ordinary Shares to Lim Koon Keong, 2,350,000 Ordinary Shares to Thomas Tan Hock Nieh,
2,750,000 Ordinary Shares to Midasi (Malta) Investment Limited, 3,250,000 Ordinary Shares
to Pioneer Sky Investments Limited, 2,100,000 Ordinary Shares to East Sincerity Capital China
Co., Ltd., 2,250,000 Ordinary Shares to Eternal View Investments Limited and 1,900,000
Ordinary Shares to United Talent Investments Limited.

[brwo349] 13/11/2016 14:53

The chart is a big clue. On listing at 70p it looked a fantastic bargain. 12 months later the shares are down to 10p on hardly any volume. How can it go from fantastically cheap to so off-the-scale cheap that its the cheapest stock in the world ever!