Aquatic Food Share Discussion Threads

[the gull] 30/9/2005 23:55

Ianwc

IMO:

1) Risk discount - no more than is applied to other mining operators in Africa.
2) Capex - circa £7.5m pure guess
3) agree
4) reverse takeover - I also agree with you there.
5) mkt cap - correct circa 75.

6) Please would someone with more knowledge answer Ians questions in post 6704.

[plunge] 30/9/2005 23:41

sawbones

Agreed. Mugabe is very vulnerable - he is 83 years old, has not set up a succession plan which might work, his ship is sinking fast - GDP will decline by up to 10 per cent this year - now down by 50 per cent in 7 years, export earnings continue to fall and the final nails are being driven into the coffin of agriculture so that farm output this coming summer will provide only about 20 per cent of the country's needs. Unless Mugabe is prepared to accept that up to half the population may either die or flee the country, he is simply running out of freeboard and the sea looks very cold and uninviting. Recently, even China, Malaysia and Cuba were all not overly keen to entertain Mugabe and his entourage.

The issue is what will trigger the required changes? If we look at the power brokers in Zanu PF Party - Munangagwa and Mujuru (the husband not the wife), they are desperately looking for a way out of this dead end alley. They have canvassed this with the MDC opposition seeking assurances that they cannot expect about the safety of their persons, freedom and assets (ill gotten gains).

From those who can offer safety to those who fear the worst, the signs are all there that such approaches are taking place - South Africa remains steadfast in its ability to help but first Mugabe must agree to certain conditions. Mugabe may splutter and explode with anger at the stated conditions, but he is no longer in any position to bargain. Even Mr. Anan has offered to come and look at the situation and he too has stated that Mugabe must concede the conditions the South Africans have laid down. No less.

Basically the time has come for Mugabe to go, by fair or foul means. The power brokers and leading businessmen all acknowledge this and are posturing themselves for the inevitable. Trust me, Kalaa Mpinga is right at the front of the queue.

[ianwc] 30/9/2005 23:14

Lots of usefull info dug up already on the new co. I have multiple concerns at the moment, but many could turn out to be unfounded as i really haven't had a chance to read up on this deal thoroughly..


1. How much country risk discount will the market apply to newco?
2. How much Capex is required to "refurbish" equipment at the gold operation?
3. Would be nice to see really recent cash costs at the nickel and gold mines.


I see someone mentioned earlier that reverse takeover tend to rise after the deal is complete. Not in my experience they don't. Take a look a Petra Diamonds and Silver Wheaton to name two. Who knows though, maybe AFG will do a Thistle Mining and rocket on the confusion of the deal.


Am i correct in seeing that this newco will have a market cap in the region of £75 million?

[sawbones] 30/9/2005 23:12

ahhhhh but people don't yet realise that Mugabe will be history within a year.....my buds @22 will put a double tap to his forehead......share price will rocket!sweet!

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 23:09

Interesting articles there in The Standard, The Gull. Especially the second one.

[the gull] 30/9/2005 23:03

Nice one dutch

If ever there was to be a pan african mining major this lot on the face of it appear to have the credentials. IMO those who got in at 4.3p! have stolen a bargain here.

What this bunch need now is the backing of some banks aka KMR type funding to get themselves up and running as producers.

Could they approach the likes of the World Bank for funding mine construction?

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 22:51

This might be of interest:

[the gull] 30/9/2005 22:35

Some backgroung info into Mwanas' operations in Zimbabwe:









I have to say that it looks like Mpinga has got a lot of political clout across Africa.

Think I will try & get in sub 5p if possible.

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 22:28

"Freda-Rebecca is situated near Bindura in Zimbabwe and produced some 51,091 ounces of gold at a cash cost of US$268 per ounce in 2003. The total Proven and Probable Ore Reserves of Freda-Rebecca as at 31 December 2003 were 300,000 ounces and at that time, Ashanti Goldfields Company Limited estimated that
Freda-Rebecca had a remaining life of some 4 years. AngloGold Ashanti has no other operations or exploration activities in Zimbabwe. Both for this reason and the short remaining life and relatively small scale of Freda-
Rebecca, AngloGold Ashanti had previously announced that it was considering the sale of Freda-Rebecca."


What would the cash cost be now? Has anyone gathered any information yet on the profitability of the different mines? Mwana bought the mine for US$2.255 million, so with 300,000 oz left that's less than $8/oz. Question is, what are the implications of operating in Zimbabwe. How does this effect the profit margins? Anyone?

[philwill] 30/9/2005 22:05

Chaps..some interesting posts but lets not forget the reality..we are talking gold .....anything is possible..this is a wildly speculative punt so why would you view it as a normal investment..its for the reckless..high risk high reward..bought some more today for my sipp..if its too rich for you then please go and infest another board...2 to 5 years..boom or bust..not a gordon brown stock then :¬)

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 20:51

Not sure AFG can be categorized as a newsflow outfit. Actually, i hope there will be more newsflow from them going forward. They'll get producing mines now. I wouldn't call that insignificant. But only time will tell. I know i'll be holding.

[tinpotdik] 30/9/2005 20:26

this management may have a good pedigree - coming from anglo american, but how many of them have risen up through the ranks thanks to their novel innovations to mining pactices as opposed to their holding onto the coat-tails of their kindred brethren in the bum-licking stakes?
I'm afraid this co seems all set up to be a newsflow outfit. But the world is full of them now.
sorry, but my advice to those now looking at this share is - forget it - spend your time researching others.

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 20:19

cannonfodder - 30 Sep'05 - 17:24 - 6685 of 6692

And the market reaction has been brutal. As for Zimbabwe - Company looks better than ever Dutch??? Don't know where you got your rose tinted glasses from, but take them off and smell them!!!


LOL cannonfodder. I haven't said i'm not worried, just that it looks better than before. Well, if the deal can be concluded as intended that is. I do admit that the drop in share price below 5p doesn't sit right with me either, but that doesn't mean the end of the company as you would make it seem.

[tin123] 30/9/2005 20:08

Its a nice theory, but we aren't holding GOLD, we have lots of shares, soon to be reduced by a 10th, in a Gold Mining company. Our investment will be maintained if the share price holds up at 50p area on consolidation, but it may not and there is a long way to fall.If the gold isn't coming out of the ground the price of gold is meaningless.

Zimbabwe is a country that will shortly implode and when that happens no-one will be doing business here for a very long time.

I was a very bullish holder on these when I first bought but not so sure now. Those simple words share consolidation invariably mean bad news for small shareholders and good news for ongoing shareholders.

I'm hoping but worried

[wstirrup] 30/9/2005 19:24

Here's a piece of history for you...

Did you know that Sir Isaac Newton (yes the one with the apple on his head) was the equivalent of Sir Eddie George in his day..His title was "The master of the Royal Mint".

And in order to maintain the value of the currency, he decreed that the good olde English Guinea (21shillings, or £1.05 in today's coinage) would equal 129.4grammes of Gold.

If we had that weight of gold at current prices, it would be worth....drumroll......

£2,143.33 Now THAT is inflation....

And it usually kicks off when a country goes to War, and has to finance it's operations. (hence the Dollar and Pound demise)

and a tale of woe...

The Key currency has 3 stages:

Stage One is when people are happy with it, and nobody wants to cash it in.

Stage Two, is when there is a lot of currency out in the world of commerce and we get what's called an "overhang"

Stage Three is when everybody is afraid to cash in the currency for fear the currency will collapse, but first the private currency holders cash it in, then the offical currency holders start to worry, and perhaps look for alternatives.


The OPEC countries are getting richer each day by the bucketload of dollars, which are depreciating right under their noses. So because they don't want to sell them, they buy assets with them (like the Chinese are trying to do with Oil Co's)

But slowly people start squirreling a little away from the key currency, and interest rates start to go up to stem the tide. Then as other countries and institutions start to think it is safe, they notice that the prices of things start to go up, and in order for them to stay level pegging, they put their own prices up, and devalue their own currency, then after a short while everybody is trying to beggar thy neighbour, and people start looking for alternatives to cash...Houses, Jewelry, Trinkets.

Bond prices crash, and interest rates zoom up, then we are into hyperinflation and a wheelbarrow full of cash gets left, and the wheelbarrow goes missing. then we are all stuffed...unless you hold your money in GOLD!!!

Don't let the scaremongers scare you...Ride the WAVE..Ride the WAVE...

W.S.

[cannonfodder] 30/9/2005 19:04

Read this quote from the announcement closley. It is clear that no one is underwriting this share issue. In other words if the placing is not full subscribed, there is no one to take up the remaining stock.

AFG are in a really dangerous position now. I have looked at the Financial statements (The accountant that I am!) and have noted that AFG are more or less out of cash!!!!

With the bid and ask price both below the 5p placing price it is hard to see why anyone would take up a single share. Would you buy something for 5 grand that you can buy for 4.5 grand??? Of course not, so why will someone pay 5p in a placing for shares they can buy in the open market for 4.5 or 4.75p??? They wont!!!

And if they don't what happens??? Well AFG have no funds to continue in exsistence!!!! Simple as that.

Will institutions come to the rescue??? Possibly, but if they do they will not be paying 5p thats for sure. They will wait to see that there is no take up and when the company's only option is to offer more shares for the £4M or be forced into liquidation, well its like they will be holding a gun to the AFG directors heads!!!!

You can say i'm trying to de-ramp as people on bulliten boards tend to do when ever anyone has negitive sentiments for a companies prospects, but if someone can disput what i'm saying I will gladly engage in an argument with you!!

Details of the Placing

The Company is seeking to raise #4.35 million by the issue of 8,700,000 Ordinary
Shares at 50p per share pursuant to the Placing, to help finance the costs of
the Acquisition and the Placing and to provide working capital for the enlarged
group.



In addition to the Placing the Enlarged Group will need further finance in the short to medium term, either through debt and/or equity, to enable it to expand
and for certain of its operations to progress from care and maintenance status.

If the Company raises such funds through equity it will most likely utilise some or all of the share allotment authority and disapplication of pre-emption rights being sought at the Extraordinary General Meeting.

[wstirrup] 30/9/2005 18:58

Some serious de-ramping going on tonight...Perhaps there's more upside here than I first thought.

The only reason people de-ramp is to get nervous holders to sell.

Anyone who has held these through the last year or so would be MAD to sell now, just as we are starting to see some upside potential.

MWANA, wanted a listing, and had to broaden it's resource base away from Zimbabwe and DRC, but as noted on the AFG site, changes there should mean a better deal for miners, and the possiblility to increase production to 100K oz at the FRM mine.

If they have turnover in the £70m bracket based at current prices, and have just got access to the U.K stock market, with that kind of turnover, plus the promise from some of the AFG sites, and the management skills that are now on board, then I don't think they should have ANY problems whatsoever getting a few million to increase production capability, especially with a rising Gold price, and several pundits talking of $420-$480 for the rest of the year for gold.

I personally foresee a major correction in the stock market late October, which will be when latest figures come out, on growth, and inflation. and that should mean even higher prices of gold.

We might even see that byword for the 70's..."STAGFLATION"? in a similar scenario to 1973, Then the Gold price will be propelled upwards just as it was in that era from $31 oz in 1971 to almost $180.

And with so many dollars going overseas to pay for OIL for the U.S. what do you think the Arab nations will do with their de-valuing dollars??? By more dollars or Jets or Palaces?? Or Euros? You bet, they will, buy Euros, but a sizeable chunk will go into GOLD.

And that will just drive the price up even more...(and Mwana Africa's currency - ££'s, falling as it will against the Euro, but perhaps maintaining a softer position with the pound, will mean £££££ in the bank for us.

W.S.

[cannonfodder] 30/9/2005 18:21

I'm talking sense. Unless some one wants to dispute what I have said

[tinpotdik] 30/9/2005 17:53

I'm worried about the life and operating costs of these projects/operations. The substance.
is it another case of cowboy explorationists/miners surfing the fad? Theres a hell of a lot of them about at the moment. Most are only in for personal gain through newsflow and have little real intention of becoming serious miners no matter what they say to the contrary.

[bennie buffett] 30/9/2005 17:42

cannonfodder - do you actually have an idea what you are talking about or just deramping to get cheap shares?

[greenrichard] 30/9/2005 17:31

In addition to the Placing the Enlarged Group will need further finance in the short to medium term, either through debt and/or equity,

[dutch dexter] 30/9/2005 17:16

Well, well, what has happened today. Too bad the share price has dropped like this, but this company is really starting to look solid now. That's just what it needed, some good producing assets to generate cashflow. Some worries still about the location of the assets. Zimbabwe with the wrecked economy and hyperinflation and the DRC with a lot of unrest. Don't really see any other downside to this though (as if that isn't enough to worry about). The future of the company looks better than ever imo. Hope the new share placing together with the existing and increasing cashflow will provide sufficient funds to pay for all future exploration and development costs. Too bad i can't average down. Seems very prudent with a share price below 5p.

[cannonfodder] 30/9/2005 17:15

ALISTAR CAMPBELL COULDN'T SPIN THIS!!

[bennie buffett] 30/9/2005 17:07

Disappointing day lets see if they can get some spin in the weekend press