||COM SHS USD0.0001 (REGS)
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Health Care Equipment & Services
Real-Time news about Aoi (Regs) (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|juju44: Not helping share price|
|eipgam: another poost from Stockhouse Http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.aoi/africa-oil-corp?threadid=21930480
Latest SEB report this morning: Prices in SEK. Raised 6 month target to 111 SEK or 18 CAD if ALL other Lokichar prospects are successful;
"Tullow Oil and Africa Oil report another discovery in the Lokichar basin, making 5 Successes on 5 wells The Agete-1 well targeted a prospect with pre- drill most likely resources of 276mb grossnet oil pay is Estimated as 100m, Which will be further verified with drill stem tested next year. We have spoken to CEO Keith Hill, who says thatthis is 33% more than the pre-drill estimate. He overpriced described the reservoir quality as "really good - might be the best we've seen so far" No final view yet on Whether it is part of a mega-field connected to the nearby Twiga South discovery, so we Assume note at this Stage prospect If resources are upgraded by 33%, then the value to Africa Oil of the discovery would be 17/share after capital gains and government back-in We carry a risked value of 6.6 for Agete in our 81 target This means That the discovery is set to add 10.4/share to our target price CONCLUSION Agete outcome better than expected. Large field by any standard.Affectionate Recent share movement, we'd expect today's news to add 5/share. 100% exploration success In Lokichar is exceptional., If all other Lokichar prospects are successful, we'd ask Adding a further 30 to our target in next 6 months. Further upside on top of That if They find oil in any other of the 8 other basins to be explored Agete The rig will now move on to drill the flank prospect Ewoi, with 317mb gross prospect resources. News end January. Q3 report now scheduled for release after Stockholm close today, but we do not expect any other share price sensitive news in That . News on Amosing-1, Tultule-1, Bahasi-1, El Kuran-3, Etuko test and Ekales test all expected before year end."|
|fraserdean: Very nice indeed, prospectivity looking very good indeed, it does make the share price action since the weekend slightly suspicicous.|
|eipgam: I have deleted it because in the cold light of day, it seemed inappropriate to discuss the share price.
AOI statement: HTTP://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oil-reports-on-security-situation-in-kenya-tsx-venture-aoi-201309230899893001|
|robochubby: Mixed results - it will be very interesting to see which way the share price goes.|
|woodcutter2013: This Nathan Kirykos guy clearly has an agenda and MOtley Fool shows again it has no credibility filter. Basic fact-checking as well as rudimentary DD on obvious points conveniently left out of his article blows holes in his investment thesis.
Appears that the article first surfaced on Stockhouse's AOI board. There were a couple of posts on the AOI board yesterday under the thread "Volume" that were surprisingly insightful and well thought-out that appear to have been overshadowed when the Motley article came out. Text from two posts below:
1. "As I posted a while back, my take on the low volume and lack of meaningful price movement is that it is a financing overhang.
Back in September, Keith Hill said the company was planning a ~$200 million financing for "later this year". Whether they do it this year or early next year, it is coming. Other than that, AOI no specific timeframe or details although there has been speculation by some of the analysts that it will come right after Twiga results are announced. When there is no certainty as to timing, you often see low volume or lack of price conviction by market players.
I also think institutions are waiting for Twiga results for certainty about continuity in the "string of pearls" theory and they are waiting for the financing even though they know the share price will rise on good Twiga news. My understanding is that professional institutional investors are more comfortable being certain about an investment's merits and knowing they have to pay more for that investment, rather than paying a bit less and not being as certain. Plus, financings are generally done at a slight discount of around 5% or so below market prices anyway. That's just my opinion on what's been going on for the past month or two."
2. "You're welcome.
What's interesting to me are all of the sub-plots on the financing as opposed to what the actual price per share is when the financing is announced. In my opinion, the biggest question is: "What is the Lundin family going to do?"
The Lundins have the wealth to provide the entire financing if they wanted to do so. Obviously it is extremely unlikely that they'll do that, but will they take enough of it to maintain their pro-rata ownership percentage of AOI? Will they increase their percentage?
This has ramifications for any institutions who might be waiting on the financing to get shares. Depending of what the Lundins do, there could be fewer shares left over to divvy up than the institutions and brokerage firms currently think there will be!
So what happens then? Does the financing then get increased if the Lundins take a big chunk? Or will there be a number of institutions who get fewer shares than they wanted, or none at all, kind of like in an IPO scenario?
There are other questions to consider, too. Will the institutional shareholders that already currently own AOI increase their holdings on good Twiga news? Will some investors sell a portion of their holdings to lock in gains prior to year-end, as I'm sure some institutions who are currently on the sidelines are hoping will happen. Will there be a buying flurry in AOI prior to year-end for institutional portfolio window-dressing?
What brokerage firms will get to do the financing? This matters as well, because diffferent brokerages have different institutional investor client relationships. Depending on who gets the financing and what the Lundins do, there could be some institutional investors who end up getting PO'd that they have to buy in the open market if they want AOI shares.
Lots of things to think about to pass the time while we wait."|
It's a bit early to interpret the official Tullow news too optimistically, because all they have said is that "the Twiga South-1 exploration well in onshore Kenya Block 13T has successfully encountered oil".
The local newspaper report refers to 30m net pay - is that in the Upper Lokhone Sands (ULS), the Lower Lokhone Sands, or both? - nobody knows, and it's just speculation at the moment.
This Upstream article
only confirms the newspaper report, but further in the article it goes on to say:
"The London-listed player has though discovered "data quality oil" at a depth of 2337 metres at the well, a source told the publication"
If that is to be believed, then was no pay found in the ULS? - that would be a negative for the well.
I want this well to be successful as much as all long term investors in AOI, but let's wait for the official results from the Operator before enthusing about a $15 share price. The market's reaction to the news clearly reflects a cautious view of the eventual result.
Just trying to present a balanced view, and suggest judgement is reserved until the official news in a week or two.
|exmooroil: Tullow's share price has been steadily building this morning, suggesting that there might be more to this news report than plain scallywaggery or scurrilous rumour :) .....or not.
Currently 42p up, and with 907m shares in issue, that's an increase in market cap of £381m.
That's equivalent to C$2.64/share or SEK17.5/share assuming increase due to K news.|
|r007212: Seems like the institutions were well aware of this news before the market again, every time we have seen a considerable increase in the share price with no new an RNS has followed two days later to consolidate the share price, I love it!
Fact of the matter is we will get full results and an RNS confirming flow test period in 3 weeks, between now and then expect further increases in the share price on speculation and leaked news, this share will be $20 within the next 3 weeks with $30 possible on flow test results!|
|r007212: 35% of my portfolio is in HRN remaining percentage in AOI!
My trading patterns have been based on share price movement as it would appear that both AOI and HRN share prices move 2 days before an official RNS indicating either positive of negative news!
Has anyone else noticed this?|
Aoi (Regs) share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange