Antonov Share Discussion Threads

[crystalclear] 07/8/2006 12:37

PS The Japanese case is Toyota versus the Japanese patent authorites, and not Toyota versus Antonov. As in Germany, Toyota are trying to get the Antonov patent invalidated, rather than pay for using it. Antonov did not issue the patent. The dispute is not with Antonov PLC; it is more an accusation of incompetence by the Japanese patent authorities, th acusation being made by Toyota.

Whether the Japanese patent authorities will admit to some sort of incompetence by themselves when the patent has been accepted in many counties around the globe, in order to help their home motor industry, remains to be seen.

[w1sefool] 07/8/2006 11:37

so when can we expect the court case ruling on Japan ? within a week or two

If ATV win what sort of share price price can we expect ?

thanks in advance

[crystalclear] 04/8/2006 21:14

The word allegedly is just used to prevent unnecessary and costly court cases. If The Times said "Toyota uses an Antonov CVT" then Toyota could take the newspaper to court. However if The Times says that "Antonov alledges Toyota uses an Antonov CVT" then that is okay, because the times is not judging the matter themselves, merely reporting Antonov's stance.

It does however get silly when the word allegedly is used so frequently that Antonov themselves start using it, like John Moore did on the CNBC interview about Toyota infringement.

It's a case of David and Goliath, AIM listed gearbox technology company Antonov is taking Toyota to court on allegations of patent infringement. To fill us in on the details I am joined by John Moore, the CEO of Antonov - thank you very much for coming in to see us Mr Moore. Keep it simple English please, especially for me but for our viewers as well. Why have you got to this row with Toyota? What's happened?

Well, in their most recent hybrid technology, Toyota have used a different type of gearbox and this is err .. infringes one of our patents, a patent we have actually held for some considerable time .. erm .. and we only became aware of it at the beginning of the year once they launched the new Prius, which is of course a very successful vehicle.

Why would they pull the wool over your eyes, so to speak?

I don't think they have. To be fair to them, I think they overlooked the existence of this patent, we weren't aware of the change of tehnology they were bringing out, so neither party was aware of what the other was at. So it was only once they launched the product that we realised that it infringed our patent and we then brought this to their attention.

We should point out that hybrid cars, as viewers surely know, potentially an absolutely huge market,
peoples interest is getting more and more ... erm, where do you go from here?

Well, the patent we have is one that is applicable to Toyota, but is not one that we could really then take to anybody else because erm, as is often the case with patents, we hold a base patent which is holding the base technology. Toyota have then built on top of that a whole raft of application technology which they themselves have patented so errm you can argue in some ways it is a bit of a Mexican stand-off - we can't licence it to anyone else without them and clearly we are alledging that they need to take a licence to our patent

And the court case is ...

The court case is running in Dusseldorf for the infringement and that will run through this year into next year, and the timing is such that a conclusion should be reached in late summer next year.

How do you cope when you have to take on one of the big boys of business?

Well, I think the key thing to explain is that the legal action in Germany is not our primary way of reaching an agreement with Toyota.

[Voices overlapping]
Right

Clearly if we were to take Toyota on head on in the courts throughout the world, erm, it would take very deep pockets indeed,

[Voices overlapping]
Sure

and that wouldn't be in the interests of either party. So really this is being used as a way to to provide some some regulation some time control to the ongoing negotiations because our intention is very much to reach a settlement with Toyota rather than seeing it all the way through the courts.

You think they'll come round?

Oh, I think so yes. I think there is always an element of poker gaming in these negotiations
and I believe they will, yes.

It is a huge deal to you Mr Moore we can say.
These patents cover this country, Germany, France, Spain - AND Japan as well - I should imagine
it is going to be worth a huge amount of money to you.

Well, I think, err, if we if we had err err a patent where there was no dispute; was entirely applicable to Toyota's technology; and also because it is quite an old patent - one where there was no element of challenge, then yes, that's true, but we must live in the real world. We are a small company, we are taking on Toyota with all their resources, so really we are looking for a settlement which is a fair outcome - which is probably not going to be the same as if we had a rock solid errm ability to to negotiate with Toyota upfront before they had gone into production.

We certainly wish you well sir, and perhaps when it is all sorted out you'll come back on and tell us where

[Voices overlapping]
I will be very pleased to.

the company goes from there.
Thanks a lot for coming in, John Moore, the CEO of Antonov.

[littlebert] 04/8/2006 18:32

Not just an allegation - Toyota have already tried to keep this out of court by seeking a settlement..... and you don't do that if you think the case is flawed!

[crystalclear] 04/8/2006 15:11

Cornelius, try this one if you cannot handle a foreign language.



However, Toyota is involved in two court battles with Antonov, an engineering firm listed on the London Stock Exchange with a research and development facility in France. Antonov alleges that Toyota's second generation Prius infringes one of its transmission patents. If Toyota loses the battles it could be forced to pay up over $200 million in royalties.

[littlebert] 04/8/2006 09:10

Yesterdays RNS seems to have dispelled any thoughts of imminent financial failure.....albeit no doubt at a cost of dilution.

But, as no large amount of stock was disposed of to get the share price down to sub 40p, it isn't taking much to get it back up either - don't yer just love the depths MMs can go to when they panic about a stock!

[cornelious billy bee] 03/8/2006 20:54

another one for the bin

[littlebert] 03/8/2006 09:48

Is that a light at the end of the tunnel? Oh, forgot, was never actually in a tunnel, more like got dropped into a deep well by MMs frightened of a company that's standing up to one of the Worlds automotive big boys...... I thought bullying was being dealt with in the City :-)

Lets hope August is a continuous roll-out of good news....

...and that late upward move, although nothing compared to the recent 65% drop , would indicate (as no trade accompanied it) that shorts are being closed!

[grupo guitarlumber] 03/8/2006 09:38

Antonov H1 pretax swings to profit on IFRS impact, to tackle production delays

LONDON (AFX) - Automotive technology company Antonov PLC said its pretax
result for the first half to June 30 swung to a profit of 0.395 mln stg, from a
pretax loss of 1.666 mln a year earlier, largely due to the impact of IFRS
accounting rules.
It said its restructuring is making progress, aimed at strengthening
capacity and reducing programme delays, noting in particular delays associated
with China's Great Wall Motor Company Ltd (GWM) project, and the launch of its
supercharger drive.
Antonov said it booked capitalised development costs related to the 6-speed
automatic and the supercharger projects of 615,000 stg, which contributed to its
operating loss of 1.350 mln stg.
It said it has eliminated the accounting impact of convertible loan notes
and euro warrants now without the need for the company to make any cash
payments, and this move is reflected as financial revenue of 1.745 mln stg.
It added that negotiations with its funding partners has resulted in
committed funding for a further 3.6 mln eur.

[e-mail]
jfr

[littlebert] 26/7/2006 15:57

eeeeehh - well it seems that, regardless of trades, the MMs are determined to remove at least 1p a day from the share price .... by my reckoning, there are about 20 trading days between now and the end of August, at which time we should get the decision from the Germans regarding Toyotas little indiscretion in marketing their flagship hybrids using allegedly stolen technology!!! At this rate, will the share price still be +ve by the time that decision is made?

Now, conspiricists amongst us may be thinking that a large motor company may be calling friends with influence in the market to reduce what they must see as a jumped up annoying company, which has dared to defend itself, to a position where it has to accept a pittance in compensation or risk being forced off the face of the earth...... remember, Toyota have already made at least one attempt to settle out of court (admission of guilt?), but ATV then had a market cap. of three times it's current value!

[crystalclear] 24/7/2006 16:57

Starting
C:\WINDOWS\CALC.EXE
and pasting
436747 * 0.69 =
into the window gives
301355.43
Euros raised.

Dividing this into a cashburn of say 4 million Euros means Antonov have taken one month's cash from their existing facility arrangement. This appears to be what they do regularly. They must be hoping that some news, be it Great Wall Motors or Toyota or Honda or whatever pushes up the share price and makes future dips into the pocket less dilutive to the shareholders.

[holmespaul] 24/7/2006 11:10

To Crystalclear:

Thanks! for the information.

Spoke to the company last week. Came across as 'not really wanting to say anything' and ' please do not take what I've said as positive or negative' kind of replies (as many companies tend to be!) in response to asking could they explain the reasons for the share price fall.

Reckon I'll average down, just hope that it will not go belly up, and somebody does know more than is being announced. Although market makers are pigs for shafting the share price on the slightest bad news, I am also a pessimist with a view that share price falls of this magnitude tend to be for a genuine reason that comes out later after you've just bought more. Wait and see, and weep....(hope not!)

Cheers

[wikroberts] 24/7/2006 10:56

crystalclear, excellent research ! Hopefully once that 100K sell at 36p cleared we will see some sort of pick up...

[crystalclear] 24/7/2006 10:24

http://www.semashow.com/main/main.aspx?ID=/content/SEMASHOWcom/HomePage
The SEMA Show is the premier automotive specialty products trade event in the world. It draws the industry's brightest minds and hottest products to one place, the Las Vegas Convention Center. As part of AAIW, the SEMA Show attracts more than 100,000 industry leaders from over 100 countries for unlimited profit opportunities in the automotive, truck and SUV, marine and RV markets. SEMA Show 2005 drew over 50,000 domestic and international buyers through two million square feet of exhibits. The displays are segmented into 11 sections, and a New Products Showcase features more than 1,400 newly introduced parts, tools and components. In addition, the SEMA show provides attendees with educational seminars, product demonstrations, special events, networking opportunities and more. 2006 Show dates: Oct. 31 - Nov. 3, 2006.



This is where GM's performance subsidiary Wheel to Wheel are rumoured to be launching Antonov based supercharger kits for the Hummer H3 and the Chevrolet Colorado.

[crystalclear] 24/7/2006 09:58

okay.

The volumes were the same, and the prices nearly identical, so it looks like somebody has just rolled over a short position of 2,500 shares.

It's good to find out that isn't the case, as I don't really like shorters, although I have shorted Torotrak myself in the past. To be honest, I think Antonov would be lucky to get $10 million dollars out of Toyota.

If Antonov lose the German case, I can imagine the shares being hit a little, but with the hammering they have had, the downside is hopefully limited.

I recently read that Nanjing might not have the facilities to build transmissions themsleves for their MGs. That is possibly the explanation for Antonov going with Great Wall after Nanjing bought Antonov's partner Powertrain Limited. Great Wall are planning to produce their own small cars. So it is conceivable that Great Wall will make transmissions both for their own small cars, and for Nanjing.

The next few months should be very interesting for Antonov.

===

Good luck with your investment!

[wikroberts] 24/7/2006 09:47

crystalclear, you are wrong. the first trade was mine and it was a buy, so would seems to be the one that followed...

[crystalclear] 24/7/2006 09:28

Looks like somebody has just rolled over a short position of 2,500 shares.

With a market capitalization of £12m the potential fall is quite small.

http://english.epochtimes.com/news/6-4-11/40308.html
Toyota Moves to Become No 1. Car Maker in the World
....
However, Toyota is involved in two court battles with Antonov, an engineering firm listed on the London Stock Exchange with a research and development facility in France. Antonov alleges that Toyota's second generation Prius infringes one of its transmission patents. If Toyota loses the battles it could be forced to pay up over $200 million in royalties.
....

I don't envisage $200m myself.
But if my short speculation is correct, then with Toyota and Great Wall Motors decisions due soon, somebody is playing a dangerous game, (unless they know the outcomes of both decisions in advance).


A £12m company $200m richer in a month or so would sure sting a shorter, even if it's only 2,500 shares!

[crystalclear] 23/7/2006 02:10

Antonov supercharger performance



A lap of the Zandvoort grand prix circuit in a 1.8L Daewoo.

[crystalclear] 23/7/2006 02:08

Price drop.

This seems to be overdone. Antonov is constantly raising money to invest in R&D and a recent announcement of a debt for equity conversion plus mention of possible future funding requirements was taken my the press (and subsequently by the markets) as some sort of financial crisis. In the sense that Antonov has regularly been low on funds and raised money, the current funding position is better than it has often been in the past.

MG Rover.

I believe Antonov were working with Powertrain Limited on the 6-speed 5th generation Antonov Automatic Drive (AAD), and the Dual Clutch Antonov transmission (DCA). However the works started with the AAD. SAIC I believe have a preference for the dual clutch Antonov transmission, which can only powershift between odd and even gears (like the VW dual clutch transmissions). That basically leaves Nanjing as a reasonable target for the AAD, which Antonov invented first and put money into developing for production.

I don't believe Nanjing have the facilities to put the transmission into production. Great Wall Motors possibly do. So Antonov would like to get Great Wall Motors to produce the transmission. The advantage for Great Wall Motors is that they could possibly use it in the small cars they are developing too.

Whether Great Wall Motors are having doubts, or are just in a process of due diligence is hard to tell from the outside. That concern has possibly spooked investors, as Antonov have announced a three month delay in Great Wall's decision. This seems to have delayed a payment by Great Wall Motors, and while that shouldn't - as far as I know - affect Antonov's finances much in the long term; maybe the payment falls in a different accounting period and will make the company look worse in the next published results.

Toyota.

The result of the court case is due shortly. Weak investors that cannot afford to take a hit if Antonov lose the case might be partially or completely reducing their holdings. I am unaware of the size of typical punitive damages, but some press articles indicate that Antonov could be awarded an amount significantly exceeding its current market capitalization. So that is a possible plus, for the stronger shareholders that can afford to run the risk.
My persoanl belief is that the downside risk is minimal as the share have already recently taken a beating, and I don't think possible Toyota royalties are currently included in Antonov's share price to any real extent.

Superchargers.

Another negative effect on sentiment is the Antonov supercharger. Many investors (including myself) believed that GM (or more correctly its subsidiary Wheel to Wheel) had developed a supercharger kit for sale to the public. It now appears they developed it for a publicity run, and that the first real applications will be the Hummer H3, and another vehicle who's name escapes me at the moment.

Although not important in the overall scheme of things, it seems to have upset a few private investors. The real importance of the supercharger however, is in the potential for downsizing engines and to demonstrate that the AMM is a commercial product. Antonov have had an enquiry (not an order) for 100,000 suprchargers, presumably with downsizing in mind. AMMs used as accessory drives can save about 4% on a vehicles fuel I believe, and this is another large potential market, in view of the importance to manufacturers of improving their MPG, both on paper and in the real world, due to petrol prices.


Honda.

Many people are forgetting Honda, since it takes three years or so from contract to production. The contract was signed in February 2002. Production is now overdue. I believe it is now too late for Honda to bring out an AMM based car gearbox. That means their potential applications are maybe superchargers, and front end accessory drives. My bet would be an Antonov based front end accessory drive, which Honda might call Integrated Motor Assist. Their current offerings mean that the air-con, water and oil pumps turn off when the engine turns off at traffic lights; or electric pumps etc need to be used.

I believe Honda will produce something.

[holmespaul] 22/7/2006 18:11

Does anyone know why the share price keeps going down? not in the know, but does the Rover deal affect Antonov?

[crystalclear] 20/7/2006 01:39

Nanjing to start production in Longbridge: announcement to be made at the British Motor Show