Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[sir buns up knealing] 13/3/2017 09:44

Well, it is a confusing start to the week on the markets. ANTO should head up more to close that 780 gap but as its already 20+ points north it may stall. The only clear plan is for me to add more shorts on Barc if it gets into the mid 230s. US interest rate hike maybe in the price and the reaction to A50 is unpredictable, though volatility this week seems assured.

Another small irritant this morning is the Barc COMP spreadsheet is wrong: the numbers and placings in the Q2 and season columns that is. Though I'm not bothered myself, it is only a fun game after-all.

Indeed, I think it would be a good outcome if brainbox soi won this season. It would sort of validate his prowess with real share dealing. No bitter rivalry from me that some others believe is the case. If he is indeed triumphant I will be the first to send him a gift.

Anyway, I'm preoccupied with my new hobby of collecting exotic and useful pets:

hxxp://www.thailandsnakes.com/venomous/

IMHO,

SBK

[sir buns up knealing] 11/3/2017 19:53

Thanks Jack for the COMP posting, though it will probably result in extra, eye-popping stress by next Friday. All iii posts are being read and notes taken of the good guys and those deserving of my vengeance. Lot of work for me to do with the latter when I get back in.

As for the markets this week and for the foreseeable future: there are just too many wild news events and such uncertainty with everything, and with imbeciles driving the bus, one cannot make rational choices. Best to err on the side of caution. Pessimists are seldom disappointed.

IMHO,

Regards,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 11/3/2017 13:13

Hi SBK,

No problem. I've also posted your effusive congratulations to Callun from yesterday, naturally quoting in full. Looks to have gone down well. ;o)

A potentially massive week ahead. ANTO year results on 14th. Brexit possibly triggered on same day & good chance of US rate rises a day later. Will be interesting to see any effect US rate rises have on copper & related miners like ANTO.

Despite all that, JD feeling slightly more self-confident after a veritable battering here in recent months, largely thanks to more success via trading real shares. Latest being BT (VG gains there booked) & seeing active buys in VOD steadily rising.

Only question is whether to also take something from VOD before Brexit triggered, or hang on a bit closer to VOD's 214 gap. Will see how Monday goes before deciding. - Regards.

[sir buns up knealing] 11/3/2017 12:31

Hello out there that nice Mr Jackdawsson,

229.25 Please.

+/- an allowance for U/T deviant deviation.

TIA,

IMHO,

SBK

[damp seaweed] 10/3/2017 21:10

SBK,
I heard a rumour that some Trumpeters are going to make a bid for the iii BP crew.
Maybe you will be allowed back ;)



ps Who are your new friends, they seem very spirited

[chinese investor] 10/3/2017 21:02

Eight years of continual entertainment.
I've loved every minute.

[professor pettigrew] 10/3/2017 19:51

Unlike you, I have the balls and the honesty to tell it like it is.

I've never known such a vile creep as you and your friend "michaels".

Toe-rags the pair of you.

But YOU WILL be found out.

I give you my word.

[professor pettigrew] 10/3/2017 19:49

Awwwwwhhhh - what's the matter CI?

Frightened I'll expose you for the filth you really are?

Don't worry chum.

We'll have that pint one day you always promised. With "michaels" maybe?

[chinese investor] 10/3/2017 19:24

Please don't respond to Professor Pettigrew.

[jackdawsson] 10/3/2017 18:49

Hi Damps,

Thanks. Much agree re reasons behind added risks with leverage. I'm also mindful that it's not my forte trading extreme volatility with SBs. I need to stick with stocks easier to predict & only that way can I match my success with real shares.

Had a decent run with UKX since 6th Jan, but also have shorts there underwater. Originally I had a VG run with ANTO, too, but have since handed back a significant hit & now cumulative holding costs.

I've answered your query more specifically on iii re my ANTO shorts (see FAO: Damps) as that's where my ANTO trading is posted. Unfortunately, my ANTO shorts opened much lower than 730. I closed my last ANTO longs at those levels after I opened the shorts.

What happened? ANTO closed only 531.50 on 4th November. By 11th November, open was 750. Well over 200 pts price movement in a week! I got badly caught out, then settled my perennial ANTO longs, which previously also gave me a false sense of security. - Then Trump happened.

Had to fund my account to trade again, as with UKX.

It’s all been a nightmare at times. Seriously. The only fortunate thing: I tend to stake much lower when going short as a natural predisposition from a heightened awareness of added risks of shorting. - All the best!

[damp seaweed] 10/3/2017 14:50

Hi Jack,
Can I ask at what level you have these ANTO shorts. I had it in my my mind that it was at the 730ish level and that they were originally hedges against your long positions ?
I guess I'm wrong on that, it was certainly the level that Soi and I made the original bad call, and 'allegedly' dragged SBK into the foolish trade.

I here what you are saying about going leveraged long near the high of 900. It is certainly true that had it not been for such duff earlier short calls, I would have held onto my additional shorts from the 890-900 area much longer.
I think the simple fact is that it is all too easy to trade with leverage and take disproportionately larger positions than you would with real shares.
These days are I'm very mindful of that and only take CFD positions of a similar size to that which I would with real share purchases. However that is not always easy to figure out when taking Index positions as the underlying stake size is not apparent. Fortunately, generally, the movements are not as violent.

[jackdawsson] 09/3/2017 21:46

Hi SBK,

As you know, I’m in deep. When I get out, or closer to an acceptable hit, I’m done with gambling via leverage on more volatile, less predictable sectors like miners. Simply not worth the hassle or stress.

You mention Rhino from iii, I'd also add Ricky who's recently been well hammered with spread-bets on other miners.

IMO, if one is lucky enough to again buy real shares in stocks like ANTO at well below recent highs, one sits tight for higher targets. Same if using leveraged longs. That at least seems a fairly rational approach.

But shorting, buying near L/T highs & hedging in these sectors is fraught with risk, unless one has very deep pockets. It can soon get out of control.

I’m even seeing an element of this lack of control with the best traders, though in the opposite direction now. Just adding more & more positions without much discipline, just to see paper losses grow. It all seems avoidable risk-taking, regardless of size of one's account.

But take your position. 868 SB long recently. Frankly, would you have bought at that level with real shares, so near L/T highs, if not for trying to hedge a 736 short? Speaking plainly, you surely wouldn’t.

My own balls-up with this has been considerably greater & only now I'm seeing some relief, without taking anything for granted. I'd feel marginally more confident about my shorts, especially when copper strikes are ended, if not that ANTO's results on 14th really can go either way. So it goes.

For much later, I'm mindful that ANTO has also left a few gaps well below 700. Some of those gaps I'm marking down for possible final exits at acceptable hits.

Regards & GL. - Another busy day out tomorrow so catch up later.

[sir buns up knealing] 09/3/2017 19:22

Many ANTO punters will be perplexed at the strong 754 support today.

The answer is: me. 754.2 is my lowest position - short! I have held it for some six weeks. Just before then I had a losing position of 736 and foolishly re-entered to claw back points. This was the launchpad to 9 quid.

Today, I tried to give ANTO a rest. But I knew that it would not breach much below 754 as I have practiced this before - see above posts. So I went long at 755 after the late dip. Any reasonable person would assume that it would roam back up to at least 760 by the close. It didn't so I scratched the trade. This is my new strategy. Watch for a 50/50 chance of success when the share price is flat-lining. If it starts to trend against me against me I'll get out quick, not even bothering to get down to a stop position. If ever it goes my way, unlikely as that seems, I'll let it run. The irony is now that if I had done nothing for 6 weeks I would be in a break even position, rather than 100+ points down!

Commiserations to Rhino on his similar bad times. Just as useful to hear from others' bad calls as well as the good ones. Which reminds me to start shorting BP and Shell or wait until they hit the bottom.

Anyway, I see that on lap 4 of 5 I'm still 3rd in the week and leader for the Barc COMP season. Wouldn't it be great if I could do the double? I'd be the Barcelona of the Barc COMP.

Finally, it is tough trading ANTO. I have thought about starting a career in blackmail, protection and extortion which is easier. I may start with, say, 50 quid a week from soi to allow him to win the COMP and another tenner a week for ticking all his posts on iii when I get back in.

Regards to all ANTO addicts.

IMHO,

SBK

[jackdawsson] 08/3/2017 19:54

SBK,

Well played, but if I was you I'd consider doing a quick screen-grab of Comp tracker before tomorrow's open. Omens for mid-week leaders remaining so by Friday's close are fairly remote if going by previous trends. You'll not see SBK positioned first again for a very long time, IMHO.

Main thing here: copper still dropping, $2.59+ as I write, & associated miners likely to follow soon.

If not for variables of ANTO's results on 14th March, I'd be even more confident of some ANTO shorts recovering sooner than later. But as it is, caution remains a byword here.



Regards & GL.

[doug stamper] 08/3/2017 14:13

I could not be sure yesterday.

I hold the theory of a short term 20% retrace from recent 900p high.

Dollar rns will dominate the week ahead so had to close. Results pending too.

imho dyor

[sir buns up knealing] 08/3/2017 11:03

Well Mr Stamper,

A bit of a bounce this morning Its now either headed to 820 or 750. But don't ask me which, I haven't a clue. I'm in defensive mode trying to minimize my errors with this on a daily basis. I guess this is not a lonely position to be in?

IMHO,

SBK

[sir buns up knealing] 07/3/2017 19:57

That is what I call a nursery rhyme crime...

One these heads should be yours Mr Stamper:

hxxps://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/a0/a5/fe/a0a5fe5da10d4010cbb70cbcd93cc0c4.jpg

IMHO,

SBK

[doug stamper] 07/3/2017 15:14

Closed short.
Wait for the bounce.720?

[doug stamper] 07/3/2017 14:28

If you go down to the woods today
You're sure of a big surprise.
If you go down to the woods today
You'd better go in disguise!
For every bear that ever there was
Will gather there for certain,
Because today's the day the
Teddy Bears have their picnic.
Picnic time for Teddy Bears
The little Teddy Bears are having
A lovely time today.
Watch them, catch them unawares,
And see them picnic on their holiday!

[jackdawsson] 07/3/2017 08:58

SBK,

IMO, some people may be mistaken in thinking that recent lower growth targets from China were all priced in. Since that report on Sunday, mining sector & copper certainly seems weaker. I still think some gaps below may be fillable sooner than later, though of course I could be wrong & it takes longer. - Regards & GL.