Antisoma Share Discussion Threads

[wilba] 02/2/2011 20:42

UK bio's were tipped as " having thier best year". Mega Lol. OXB, ASM to name a few. Can anyone add some more car crashes???

[the_doctor2] 02/2/2011 13:45

Ora will possibly use it to float something into IMO. That makes the most sense.
Will it give any return for investors here? Not much, if any IMO.

[the_doctor2] 02/2/2011 13:44

'if this turns around and goes for half decent price'

There is nothing there to turn it around!??


You perhaps need to note that many 'experts' invest in something like ASM as part of a wider portfolio. They expect failures, but if enough come out positive, they'll make a profit.

[cumnor] 02/2/2011 13:38

Interesting to see what they genuises at Invesco, having sold loads at what appears rockbottom prices, will say to their clients if this turns around and goes for half decent price, as I suspect it will. Will heads roll? I doubt it, which is one reason I do my own sipp and have done an awaful lot better than the clowns who managed my previous investments. After a while you realise the 'experts' have less of a clue than yourself, which is not saying a lot. imo dyorimo

[mothtoaflame] 02/2/2011 13:33

The other question this latest set back raises is what does this do for ivestor confidence in the rest of the UK Biotech sector - will it be even harder for start ups to get funding, or existing companies to raise further cash?

[the_doctor2] 02/2/2011 13:27

cumnor - so you mean that ASM is just going to fritter its cash away on attempts into new projects??
That puts the downside at way lower than cash!

[cumnor] 02/2/2011 13:25

What would you guys say to investing in a new biotech, has twenty plus million in cash, few more to come in, is a world leader in mono-clonal antibody technology, has partners, patents and the staff to go with it, has a number of products in development will be tightly run and has tax losses to boot. And is only valued at two thirds of cash level. Now I reckon it will make a good morsel for someone in the pharma industry, particularly as this field is on the up. Welcome to asm. (During the bio/internet boom of 2001 this on this news alone would have been valued at 50p a share imo. I'm in just above 2. dyor imo

[tempramental] 02/2/2011 13:12

means that Ora have bought 40 - 60 million shares recently

[tempramental] 02/2/2011 13:11

well someone is interested/ sees some value here

Ora ( Guernsey) has bought 10% of co.

[freddie ferret] 02/2/2011 11:52

I believe the company may have had the possibility of the current disaster at the back of its mind for some time. Phase 3's have a habit of failing. Given this I believe they will already have worked out contingency plans for how the company will operate in the future.
I do genuinely think this is underpriced, we know little of what the company has already planned and worked out.

[the_doctor2] 02/2/2011 08:46

'How many companies would love to reverse into or buy out a shell that had £13 million cash in the bank'

sure, but they're unlikely to pay much of any premium

I'm just saying a) be sure to take all liabilities from the cash level
b) bear in mind that spending will continue to some extent
and c) that there will be winding up costs - average workers will probably get next to nothing, but making directors redundant can cost a chunk.... all eroding that cash level down

I'm not saying this is overpriced, just that it may not rise at all, so why bother?

[pwhite73] 02/2/2011 08:35

the_doctor2

The idea that it costs millions to wind down a company is a complete myth. By time 95% of most companies are due to be wound down they have no money left.

Even if we take your scenario of 2p the shares are still worth buying because 2p is equivalent to £13 million cash. How many companies would love to reverse into or buy out a shell that had £13 million cash in the bank that was cleared of all liabilities.

[duncandisorderly] 02/2/2011 08:29

I phoned the company who informed me of a few products they still had going on.Seeing that the market cap is soooooooooooo low it would only take the introduction of a few jv's to add on 50% if not 100% to the market cap.
If this was done on favourable terms a good ceo would get them to pay for all the costs,who knowns,just an idea.

[wilba] 02/2/2011 08:18

All priced in. Flatline............

[the_doctor2] 02/2/2011 08:16

duncan - care to tell me what this company has that'll send the share price the other way??

cash doesnt support that PWhite, because you have to take into account how much of that cash will be spend in paying off liabilities, making staff redundant, covering existing pay of the scaled down business and any banker's fees for selling the company.
I'll be much closer to 2p - so, where's the upside potential??

[pwhite73] 02/2/2011 08:06

The cash supports a shareprice of 3.7p. Interim results to 31 December 2010 should be out this month. I suspect a new strategy as to how they intend to move forward will be announced.

In these hard pressed times I find it impossible to believe the company is not being looked at primarily for its cash position.

[duncandisorderly] 01/2/2011 16:53

Doctor Doom's off again I see.If he's not in I suggest you buy as it always goes the opposite way,lol.

[the_doctor2] 01/2/2011 16:16

'breaking upwards now in the last hour.'

ajmace
this isnt going to be going anywhere, seriously

[clubman] 01/2/2011 16:09

Antisoma plc
Holdings in Antisoma





Holdings in Antisoma plc

Invesco Limited sold big chunk today.

Before 31,733,372 | After 8,810,000

[ajmace] 01/2/2011 15:47

breaking upwards now in the last hour....

[the_doctor2] 01/2/2011 09:32

BookieBuster - if you're going to start from June 2010, then you need to use the June 2010 cash figure, not the Dec 2010 cash


'The intellectual property associated with this drug is worth about £10 million despite its eventual failure'

PWhite73
only if others are infringing it and want to pay for licenses or if they think the drugs can be reborn
The IP could now be worth zero
Why should it be any more for drugs that dont work?

[pwhite73] 31/1/2011 23:02

People are only comparing the current cash balance to the shareprice. The finals announced to 30 June 2010 showed the company had total assests of £87 million.

AS1413 failed at Phase III not a Phase I or Phase II. Phase III is the final stage before FDA approval. The intellectual property associated with this drug is worth about £10 million despite its eventual failure. A wealth of important scientific information has been collated over the course of the years the drug has been in developement. It is information that would save other companies in the same field tens of millions of dollars and would further progress their own products.

Even with the failure of its three lead drugs Antisoma's intellectual property is valued at about £25 million.

[bookiebuster] 31/1/2011 21:11

Naturally cash burn will decrease

They spent nearly £4m a month in 2010 and have £23m left. There will likely be around £11-12m left after £8m payables (at June 2010) and £3-4m estimated restructuring costs

If they reduce forward overheads to £1m/month they can survive to the end of the year
Reducing it further to £0.8m/month will last 14 months. Either way its borrowed time

[newswseller] 31/1/2011 20:20

With these two projects now cancelled, the cash outflow will dramatically decrease though.

When a small company like this is conducting Phase II and Phase III clincial trials they have to outsource all the work and this is very expensive.

They would have paid millions to a CRO to carry out the data management and reporting side of things.

They would have paid another company to carry out the site monitoring, then you have to reimburse the sites for their participation.

Plus they would be reimbursing the subjects for participation in the trial, this could be anywhere from £1500 - £10k each.

Then theres the cost of manufacturing the drugs for the trials.


So stripping all of this out means cash burn will decrease considerably.