Ashoka India Equity Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[deanowls] 10/4/2015 00:56

Apologies Pico, no offence actually meant to you, it's probably more frustration that this doesn't move, last updates have been decent but despite the stock market being at highs nothing has really moved this share in over a year. I wouldn't mind trading it but there is no movement and once dealing fees are taken into account I struggle to see the attraction.

[picobird] 09/4/2015 15:15

Hello deanowls
There is a vast cross section of peeps on this board. We have persons who already know the technical depth of Anite & those who throw a fit about it when it is mentioned & prefer just to look at the share price
Someone mentioned a while back ( might have been Werty but would not swear to it ) that a little trading along the way is a bit of a plus. Anyway it was what had been going through my mind for a little while.
We all have own own strategies & the fact is I had forgotten that we hold shares to make money. Really referring here to pocket money rather than paper profits. Nice to have both !

Was going to mention the news today of the Metis project of which Anite forms a part. They were due to report this month anyway so I gave it a miss.

Got to admit that price watching is rather time consuming but I am close to quietening down on the trading ( for a bit ). Times to just hold, but at the same time evaluating holdings change weekly. Sorry if my posts are TOSH but to me the whole scene of investing / semi trading is very serious. If there is a quid to be made I will chase it now, before - I just watched !
Might be an idea to filter me if I have become a PITA_ LOL.

At the end of the day I need the DOSH despite the TOSH.
Looking at your post I note your concern. My strategy is a little more complicated than you think but at the same time fairly straightforward.
Each to their own. No more to be said.

[deanowls] 09/4/2015 13:42

Pico, you've gone from telling everyone what is happening to Anite (quite useful and informative) to talking a load of ballacks, long term, short term, it's done nothing, it's doing nothing there's no real movement but now your trading it like some financial ninja.

Tosh

[picobird] 09/4/2015 08:55

Hi Werty
Thanks very much for your hard work on these TA charts. Before I saw them I was looking very carefully last night at the usual charts including candlestick.
Been waiting to come back into Anite this week at the right price full whack as it were on my long term portfolio. Like you I feel that the present levels are a sensible entry point bearing in mind that we are in the final trading month.
Cannot see the trend line being broken for support although you have drawn it to exclude 83p. Should it happen which is unlikely I will come in again with my smaller portfolio fund.
My system is working for me & will only work if you know the companies inside out, so it could not be used by the majority of semi traders. For now the theory remains in a beta stage & will not be revealed. In all fairness semi traders should make the effort to master TA first before developing their own trading tools.
For those who want a course in TA there is one on special offer of $24 reduced from $1395 on Sharepickers.com. I find the site amusing just to listen to. The guy who runs it pulls in many informed people on his podcasts, but again not to be taken too seriously.

As you said Werty the Bull Flag is a little overdone. Will be interesting to see what happens - plenty of sideways movement right now.

[werty5] 09/4/2015 02:24

My last chart shows the longer term weekly chart over a 3 year period to perhaps get a bigger picture of what is going on.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



As you can see from the chart the downward trend was broken in about May/June 2014 sorry but dates are not easy to read using ADVFN charts but I have marked the area with a circle. After the downtrend was broken AIE's share price seems to be trending between about 75p and 95p working on the theory that this trend might continue if your not invested yet but are looking to get in around 75p might be a good area you could look to make a cool 20% profit minus costs by buying in here and selling again at about 90p. If I do decide to sell out it would be in the 75p area that would interest me again. However after all that we do have the next statement issued shortly and after the last positive statement I think I will hold until it has been issued. Oh to have that crystal ball or be Dr Who.

[werty5] 09/4/2015 02:02

The next chart shows the bullflag that Picobird mentioned in a previous post this chart has been posted using candles because i think it shows the flag pattern better.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



My thoughts are that the pullback is a bit too steep and long to be a genuine bullflag but charting is a bit subjective and that is my opinion and Picobird has his.

[werty5] 09/4/2015 01:50

my thoughts on the charts sorry has taken a bit longer to post than I was intending.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



First chart shows recent price history the reason I took the trade is I liked the sound of the bullish nature of the most recent statement, I was also looking to buy in to catch the upward trend marked by the diagonal line. As you can see the trend failed marked by the circle so things have started off a bit shaky for me. I am now focused on the area marked by the horizontal line and would like to see a bounce before this area. If this area is breached I will probably look to see how near we are to the next statement but would have to consider pulling my funds once again. Lesson I have learned from this is it would probably have been better to wait to see if there was a bounce from the trend line before jumping the gun but hey hindsight is easy.

[picobird] 02/4/2015 04:46

Year end 30/04/2015. Update last year was 12/05/2014 - second week of May then ?
I must admit that I seem to have rewritten the law of physics, or at least bent it to include a functional parallel universe (in figurative terms). I think a new chapter should be added to the trading manuals in the form of an algebraic algorithym which is not fixed to a single point in time.
Anyway, it works for me which is the main thing.
GLA

& No - I am not Dr Who !

[deanowls] 01/4/2015 20:28

Pico, on the chart above i can see only two times that it has risen above the 83 support in the last year, neither of which would have made me much in percentage terms. I cant see much to trade with, qpp well theres another story!

I do think that it is bottoming out and that there are better things around the corner, when is the next update due?

[rathlindri] 01/4/2015 18:44

Interesting strategy pico. How do you know when the share price is going to drop so that you can sell (before the drop) and then "benefit from any negatives" by presumably buying back in at a lower price?? Sounds great but surely there is just as much chance you'll get it wrong as get it right?

Crystal ball?

[picobird] 01/4/2015 16:31

It is rather amazing as you have said. The important thing is that the informed investors benefit from any negatives.
I have to admit that I trade back into Anite at these prices. The trick is to trade out prior to any drop & to buy in when the drop takes place. That might sound like smoke & mirrors but it works for me. It is the only way of holding this share - to make a bit on the side.
I make sure that price movements in both directions are covered.
Trading that way acts as a sweetener to holding the share. You could say ' a little bit of what you fancy (money) does you good '. It keeps me happy whatever the price does.
83p is the support level.
At the end of the day it is a winning company, just a matter of developing one's own strategy in holding the shares.


Quindell looks interesting at the moment, wonder what's going to happen ?
It is not a share that I would touch with a barge pole although those brave punters who have will probably do well from it !

[nomdeplume] 01/4/2015 16:01

Tatsfield, I agree. However, it's the end of the tax year and this sometimes affects share price I'm prepared to wait and see what the share price is in a couple of weeks.

[tatsfield] 01/4/2015 15:36

The attitudes of "investors" makes me weep. Anite makes a highly productive and innovative acquisition and the market drops the share price They bought something that will make them extra profit and consolidate their position in an increasing domination of their sector, but you'd think that the announcement was about all the directors buying themselves Ferraris at the shareholders' expense. As I've said before, Anite's share price will only rise when the market thinks they are about to declare a huge dividend that they can buy into quickly before payout day!

Because of this, it is entirely possible that Anite may be a bad investment but it's a strange world where a company does everything that it needs to do to advance to the top of the tree and it is still seen as a bad investment by the market which means that in absolute terms, it is! I still have some profit margin to play with and intend to stick around for a while in the forlorn hope that the red braces brigade may yet see a profit to be made and carry my investment with them.

[salpara111] 31/3/2015 17:03

Yep!
I am annoyed at myself in that I looked over ETO while it was still a small cap about 18 months ago but decided not to take the plunge and then watched the share price rise over 50%!
I only bought ETO recently and am pretty happy with holding that for the foreseeable future.
I bought Merlin for the same sort of reasons about a year ago and have made quite a handsome return but am now looking at exiting.....not because I have gone negative on the business but I suspect it will probably trade sideways for a while as events catch up with the large recent run up in the share price

[werty5] 31/3/2015 15:39

At least Pepper pig has your back Salpara.

[salpara111] 31/3/2015 12:47

I have no axe to grind against Anite, I make a living out of investing so I have to be ruthless in how I run my portfolio.
My one golden rule is....at the first sign of trouble GET OUT!
I dont know why I ignored my own mantra when I invested here. I suspect it was because I could not see another opportunity to place the money in at the time.
I have nothing against Anite in particular, if you are a professional investor you have to accept that sometimes you make a mistake, it is what you do when you make that mistake that separates the professionals from the amateurs.
You can go to any one of literally hundreds of small cap message boards to read the banal chatter of private investors who can't bring themselves to accept that they have made a bad investment and as such are going to wait until they lose their entire investment rather than take a loss and move on.
Some day I might invest in Anite again but clearly the last 2 years have been a catastrophe for anyone holding.

[werty5] 30/3/2015 20:08

Hi Pico I will take a more detailed look at the charts perhaps tomorrow and let you know how I see it working out in regards to breakouts and bull flags etc.. I often find that charts can be read by seeing what you want to see it is a trap that I have fallen into a few times so I am always a little bit weary of publishing too much info. On the other hand I know if I get it very wrong you won't hold it against me.

[werty5] 30/3/2015 19:58

I know this sounds a bit like sitting on the fence but I understand both point of views. Pico obviously knows a lot more about the business that Anite is in than most and I include myself in the not very clued up category so perhaps he can see the grand plan and knows it is worth waiting for, however I would question the wisdom of holding Anite all the way to the bottom waiting for a bounce but just because it is not my style doesn't make it wrong if it suits him. On the other hand both Rath and Salpara obviously have lost money on the share which leaves a bitter taste in the mouth which I can understand as I have been there more than once myself but don't close your mind to Anite making a recovery which is likely to happen at some point even if it isn't now because you will then feel bitter you lost money but also bitter you were not there for the recovery. The point is everybody is different and the view you take on the direction that the share will travel will vary. I will let you know how I trade shares which may or may not be helpfully. I will first of all look at the company fundamentals how cheap is it to buy, what was the last trading statement like and what are it's future prospects etc...... next I look at the charts what is happening with the recent trends? when I look at trends I look in multiple time frames as what is happening in the short term trend might be different to the longer term. I also look for possible resistance and support lines Then I ask myself is there any prospect to earn at least 20% out of the share? If I don't think the prospect of earning at least 20% is there I would probably pass. The last thing I look for is a good position to place my stop loss. The next part is probably were I differ from most I try to forget about how much money i could make and focus on how much I could lose, how do I do this? I look at the total amount held in my trading account and work out what 1% of that total is this is my risk amount in other words where I have positioned my stop loss I will only buy enough shares which if hit will only lose me 1% or less of my total account. I also enter a share with the hope that the price will do what I think given the trend lines support and resistance areas but I am more than aware that the opposite might happen and the share could hit my stop loss. If stop loss is hit I will wait and observe the share to see when the next opportunity presents itself and try again, you see because of my 1% loss policy and the fact I am looking for shares with plenty of potential upside I can attempt buying in and getting it wrong several times and still eventually be on a winner. Sorry to bore you half to death but I have always found it interesting how people trade. BTW none of the ideas above are my own but are only what I have learned through speaking to others.

[picobird] 30/3/2015 17:18

Well as you said the market calls the tune. Today, 550k came in as 'buys' & 165k as 'sells'.
Longer term the markets adjusted due to consolidation within the Anite' market. You cannot blame the company for that. In fact it is diversifying within a very healthy market for it's products at the moment with no clouds on the horizon (as per last IMS).
Unless you live in cloud cuckoo land prices never rise in a straight line. Life has it's up's & down's as do share prices.
As for the company being a 'Turkey' you had best notify the institutions holding this companies shares.
Enjoy your Merc.

While I am on the subject of the company doing well, in my own humble opinion the BOD are doing a darn good job steering the company. I cannot comment on their Long Term Incentive plan, that I leave to the Institutions who normally monitor the matter & request adjustments.

[salpara111] 30/3/2015 16:56

I dont pass judgement on Anite, nor do the mostly clueless brokers! the market does!
Winning awards does not pay my Mercedes Lease!
A rising share price and dividends do that!
Yes it has dropped 1p today on top of the 75.5 pence it has shed over the last 2 years!
If it looks like a Turkey and gobbles like one then guess what....It is a Turkey!

[picobird] 30/3/2015 16:26

rathlindri
As a matter of interest are you intending to buy back in ?
I believe you are a non holder at the moment.
There is nothing wrong with the share or company. Neither is there anything wrong with the werty5 TA theory.
Whatever you are invested in good luck to you. I am very happy with my holding in Anite as I know the companies that I invest in have good fundamentals, as indeed do the brokers !

It has to be said Salpara111 that in all honesty you never did get to grips with what Anite were actually doing. You once criticised the cost of the channel emulator as being a non starter when in fact it has opened many doors for Anite. Not only that but it won an award for being innovative.
TBH I do not think you are the right person to pass judgment on a company like Anite. Best leave that to the brokers who at least understand what the company is doing on the tech side.

Having just looked at the current share price I see it has dropped 1p today, so why all the drama ?

werty5
Your theory looks spot on with the support level today 85.5p.
As a matter of interest how do interpret a bull flag for the stock on the pattern of the last few weeks in your own opinion. I thought it was forming before the markets fell back in the middle of last week.
It looks promising for a breakout in my own opinion.

[rathlindri] 30/3/2015 14:30

Best of luck with it werty5, hope it comes good for you, a nice honest summary of your reasons why also.

[werty5] 30/3/2015 13:39

Salpara agree always best to leave anything with a profit waning alone because most of the time they seem to come in 3's. I have dipped my toe back into Anite because of the recent more upbeat statement and because of what the chart seemed to show although the jury is still out on the chart I would say it is possible that finally better days might be ahead. Stop loss is set tight and if triggered could be back to the drawing board but going to give it a chance.

[salpara111] 30/3/2015 13:16

Just saw this on the losers list today.
I see that Pico is still cheerleading...... as I said before I hope Anites' PR agency is paying you good money!
Their last couple of statements have been pretty positive but the share price is unable to gain any traction.
Still glad I took my loss last year as I would be in a bigger loss position now.
I kept them on my watch list and very nearly bought in after the last positive statement but as the old saying goes....once bitten twice shy!
Some day they will regain traction but really this was an object lesson for me in terms of hanging onto a failing company.
I very nearly sold at a 10% loss when it spiked in Jan 14 but decided to hold only to sell out for a much larger loss several months later.
LESSON - Profit warnings never come on their own, sell on the first warning even if that means taking a loss.

[rathlindri] 30/3/2015 12:12

another "tree shake"