Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[christh] 28/1/2016 09:22

coal will be in demand for ever and pricing will change.
commoditiy prices will increase as well as oil.
China has seen most of its coal mines closed down and will have to import coal to power the generators, the furnaces, warm the houses.

[rcturner2] 28/1/2016 08:18

chris, your year end prediction for 2015 was 200p.

You are a moron who thinks that because you have bought a share, that company is the best thing ever and all news is good news.

[spectoacc] 28/1/2016 08:17

7p this year, I'd imagine 6p next with the move from 4p to 3p. They're still looking for new coal royalties to buy too, hmm. Maybe that's what justifies the high expenses.

[christh] 28/1/2016 08:05

Still paying a dividend 7p a year .
improvements in royalties, debt decreased.

[spectoacc] 28/1/2016 07:41

A typical APF t/s this morning - "Everything going great/production targets exceeded/royalties pouring in/reducing the dividend/writing down c.$30m/have a nice day".

A bit too proud of this line too:
"Operating costs, excluding share based payments, will be less than GBP4.0m, a significant reduction on the GBP4.9m equivalent in 2014"

They're a royalty company, how do they manage to spend that much?

Continue to hold but glad I bought cheap..

[jimbo55] 20/1/2016 21:25

On the China front, some of you may find the following interesting:



A summary is here:

hxxp://www.businessinsider.com.au/mark-harts-calls-for-further-yuan-devaluation-2016-1?r=US&IR=T

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 16:26

Fully concur.

Total overcapacity.

Everything was geared to a never-ending 15%pa blue-skies growth rate for China. Too many ships were built. Too many coal mines were opened. Too many new oil wells. Too much steel plant

This massive overcapacity against a sputtering market is driving prices to the floor.

There will be some significant corporate casualties to come.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[emeraldzebra] 20/1/2016 15:30

Quepassa - you make an interesting contribution with ref to the BFI (maybe you saw 'Newsnight' on Tuesday evening.) - However - i can tell you - as an ex shipbroker myself - that charter levels only tell you a small part of the story - since SO MANY vessels - including Capes, Panamaxes and Handymaxes have hit the water SINCE 2008. (Many owners got VERY greedy and over ordered tonnage from 2003 when the boom started and many of the ships hit the water just as the Chinese slow - down took hold.). There is plenty of iron ore, coal, and grain moving around the globe at present - but there are also a f++k of a lot more boats available for hire !

[jimbo55] 20/1/2016 13:48

What Quepassa has posted about miners going all out to produce more coal (in an attempt to maintain margins) also applies to Iron Ore. The World is currently in a state of oversupply in both. This will pass, but not until a lot of mid-small cap mining juniors go out of business. There has not been anywhere near enough pain in either sector due to mine shutdowns for a bottom to be in yet. Have a look at comments made by both myself and Quepassa last May to see who has been proved to have been correct.

Personally, I am looking for the following this year to be convinced a bottom is looming in the Natural Resources space:

1. A full blown implosion of junk bonds belonging to beleaguered shale oil producers.

2. A large player in the Iron Ore mining space to go out of business. Fortescue mining would fit the bill.

3. A major commidities brokerage such as Trafigura or Glencore to go under.

I read China is currently awash in (over-produced) surplus steel. This does not bode well for either iron ore or coking coal prices in the immediate future...

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 08:10

Baltic Dry Index hits all-time record lows.

Considered a pre-eminent financial barometer of supply/demand for global trade in bulk dry commodities such as coal.

150,000 tonne cargo ships can now be chartered for $2,700 per day compared to $200,000++ per day in 2007/8.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[djgrantb] 19/1/2016 11:52

No it was just haven't seen any of your diatribe on here since before Christmas, well I suppose you've broken the silence.

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 11:49

Beware what you wish upon others. Fate has a strange way of working.

[djgrantb] 19/1/2016 11:41

Quepassahombre, I've been looking for your obituary in the Times...

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 11:38

Whilst it is true that production has increased at Kestrel and Narrabri, this seems to be more than offset by steep price falls in the underlying commodity.

That is why it is useful not just to have output figures but income projections.

Not just UK steel plant is being closed, it now seems that Chinese steel plant are also being forced to close down.

This goes to the heart of the matter.

The miners are digging so much coal in an attempt to maintain income levels, that the coal prices are getting more and more hammered.

No different to what is happening with oil. Too much supply against sputtering demand.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[djgrantb] 19/1/2016 11:10

Kestrel figures from RIO were good, should bolster sp?.

[gavapentin] 08/1/2016 11:33

Held up quite well given the circumstances!

[buywell3] 06/1/2016 23:03

APF chart continues to underperform

China slowdown to continue

Posts from PMO threads ....



buywell3 - 27 Aug 2015 - 03:31:44 - 5544 of 7572
Yes a mugs rally is in prospect for a few days

Whatever this reaches on any lift

Divide it by 2 and that will be my call when WTIC OIL drops to $35




buywell3 7 Sep'15 - 16:40 - 49 of 78 0 2 edit

What do mean bids

Most like this POS are holding massive Net Debt

They are strapped for cash

Zippo ... Nada .... Zilch .... enough for the tea club but no chocolate biscuits any more , only plain ones.
Cash preservation is the name of the game

Companies like RKH that have been recent buyers outside of the Falklands NOTE

Need a check up from the neck up

Prices will keep falling and that cash will be needed to SURVIVE

[christh] 18/12/2015 06:09

Wollongong Coal to restart Wongawilli mining

18 December, 2015 Cole Latimer

Top stories of 2015
New coal mine jobs in Lake Macquarie

Wongawilli Colliery will restart mining after it was given approvals for a time extension modification, creating 110 jobs.

The mine entered care and maintnance in August last year following a series of misadventures and falling coal prices.

Wongawilli's future was first put in doubt following the burial of a longwall shearer at the site after a roof collapse, which hampered production and reduced the need for a number of operational workers on site.

[christh] 17/12/2015 06:20

New jobs in Moranbah as Isaac Plains set to reopen
17 December, 2015 Ben Hagemann

Stanmore Coal is edging closer to re-opening the Isaac Plains mine near Moranbah, with 150 job opportunities soon to come for local workers.

With the opening scheduled for February 2016, Stanmore Coal has not specified whether the mine will require FIFO workers.

read more here

[christh] 17/12/2015 06:13

Hay Point's third coal berth opens

17 December, 2015 Ben Hagemann

BHP has marked a new milestone in their coal sector expansion as BMA opened the new third berth at the Hay Point coal export terminal yesterday.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk attended the official opening ceremony with BHP coal president Mike Henry and Mitsubishi Corporation COO for the mineral resources investment division Rick Tanaka.

The premier said coal exports had reached a record 219 million tonnes last financial year thanks to such investments.

“I want to thank BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi for their confidence in the Queensland coal export market and their contribution to the Queensland economy, despite coal prices having declined markedly in recent years,” she said.

more on

[illiswilgig] 15/12/2015 13:03

I'd be honoured to be referred to as I'llswigIt (rather than IllswiGit!).

With regard to capital destruction APF seems to meet it's industry benchmark. ie if I read it right Anglo American is down from its peak of 3300p to 280p - over 90% destruction and maybe Glencore might be even higher? That's not to excuse current management but rather to point out on a totally unscientific poll of two that they are rather average on current performance. It's easy to criticise oneself (and other PI's) for being caught in APF, but surely the professionals who are invested (often pension funds)in the like of Anglo should have known better? Just kidding :-)

hic

[quepassa] 15/12/2015 08:33

Good response.

I am teetotal but don't let me get between you and your homebrewing. It does sound truly delicious and clearly hits the mark.

Your Sunday post did seem somewhat merry.

Would you mind terribly if we amicably referred to you as "I'll Swig It" going forward rather than illiswilgig?



Another factor to consider with the dividend is how many shares the management collectively own and the effect that this may or may not have in influencing any dividend policy.

I personally remain amazed just how many investors seem not just accepting of the recent Company and management performance but wish to praise it.

The negative returns /losses on shareholder capital are both great and shocking in my opinion. If this were a performance-based hedge-fund, investors would have likely pulled all their money out a long-time ago and the fund would most probably have been forced to close down if investor capital had been diminished at such a fast rate of knots.

Best wishes.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[illiswilgig] 15/12/2015 07:38

QP - yes indeed. I rather thought that somebody might pick up on that. If only I was good at judging when to sell a share.

In hindsight it all seems so clear now. Learned a useful lesson from this one - and come the next commodities cycle I hope to put it to good use, in about a decades time give or take.

Meanwhilst my point stands. I don't see much downside from here and the divi (not without it's risk) keeps me off the streets.

When I say not without its risks - it's actually the primary risk I see with this share. I am always more than a little suspicious of companies that keep paying uncovered dividends. Either they are supremely confident and the drop in income is temporary or they are supremely confident and they don't have a clue. By and large they don't have a clue or are the kind of management that enjoy taking big risks with money that doesn't belong to them. I always find it quite hard to tell the difference and it's this risk that is currently preventing me from loading up with more shares.

And yes, my homebrew is marvellous stuff but given my local microbrewer actually sends people to me to ask about homebrewing it's probably not the same stuff you fondly remember for doing such funny things (I used to brew that as well).

cheers

[quepassa] 14/12/2015 07:38

Homebrew can do funny things.

A few years ago your original 40p investment had risen almost ten-fold to around 380p. Now it's almost back to 40p again.

If that's an addled cause for celebration, your homebrew must be marvellous stuff.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP