Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[edmondj] 17/9/2015 08:02

How many examples are there though, of brokers capitulating to downgrade in a trough? They just have their fingers in the wind albeit they dress as if offering superior insight.

Also the "commodities supercycle" was really just a stock/fund promoters' concept, a nearer-term cycle has kicked in!

No position in APF.

[buywell3] 17/9/2015 07:53

The chart confirms that the market does not currently like APF

Any positive posters here think they know better

[quepassa] 17/9/2015 07:38

Each to his own.



Yesterday 16th. September.

FINNCAP issues broker note and DOWNGRADES its recommendation on APF from BUY to HOLD.


FINNCAP also SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE AGAIN their PRICE TARGET from 110p to 79p.


In January 2015, FinnCap were at a PRICE TARGET of 158p on APF. In March it was reduced to 110p. Now 79p.

I do not have access to the full FinnCap update. Anyone care to post it?

This DOWNGRADE and REDUCTION in TARGET PRICE by FinnCap to just 79p is bad news for the share price in my opinion.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[trade112] 16/9/2015 15:56

I agree QuePassa,
Don't buy Glencore shares, buy APF.

[quepassa] 15/9/2015 19:31

or perhaps just some self-serving blurb from the MCA

[piedro] 15/9/2015 16:58

Perhaps it is a question of the quality {of the thermal coal}...

'... This energy transition occurring in Asia is good news for demand for high quality Australian coal ...'

For example, the Narrabri Mine is in New South Wales

[quepassa] 15/9/2015 16:03

Very different to the findings of The State of Queensland when they recently significantly downgraded their income forecasts for coal royalties.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 15/9/2015 15:36

ASIA MAKES LARGE SCALE SHIFT TO MODERN COAL POWERED GENERATION
Sep 14 2015
Greg Evans
'... The findings of this report will be of great disappointment to critics of the coal industry, as we continue to see growing demand for affordable base load energy and particularly in Asia. The IEA has estimated an additional 1 billion tonnes of coal will be used in 2019 compared with today. ...'

[buywell3] 07/9/2015 16:40

I think recent buyers have been very brave going V the market and commodities

I repeat

The chart is hanging in there , but there is a big chance it could slide to the downside on more bad news from China


macd looks ready to fall

[neilyb675] 04/9/2015 20:15

7545 - excellent post, highly recommended.

[hyden] 04/9/2015 18:03

I am also encouraged by recent announcements and I think that the dividend, whilst currently uncovered, is safe in the short term at least.

[hyden] 04/9/2015 18:02

Thanks, Chris. I am rather inclined to agree with that article and I think that patient investors buying in now, when there is blood on the streets, will be treated to a healthy return in a few years time. I think a 3 - 5 year time horizon is what is needed here. :-)

[christh] 04/9/2015 14:34

Anglo Pacific Group PLC
CEO Julian Treger explains to The Northern Miner how Anglo Pacific has 'turned the corner'
04 September 2015 12:14


For Anglo Pacific Group (TSX: APY; LSE: APF), royalty income in the first half surpassed all of the royalty income earned last year. And while the company posted an after-tax loss for the six months ended June 30, it was a much smaller one than a year earlier.

“We’ve turned the corner and have ever-stronger growth ahead of us, until at least 2017,” Julian Treger, the company’s president and CEO, said in an interview from London.

The group has seen higher royalty revenue despite a decline in commodity prices, and is keeping costs under control, he said, adding the trend suggests 2014 should be the low point for Anglo Pacific’s royalty income.

In the first half of 2015, royalty income surged to £3.8 million in a 48% increase from the £2.6 million Anglo Pacific posted in the same period last year, while after-tax losses fell from £23 million to £8.8 million.

Higher royalties were largely driven by new sources of income acquired in the last 18 months from Whitehaven Coal’s (US-OTC: WHITF; ASX: WHC) Narrabri North coal mine in New South Wales, Australia, and Largo Resources’ (TSXV: LGO; US-OTC: LGORF) Maracas vanadium mine in Brazil.

Narrabri produced 4.9 million tonnes of coal, up from 2.4 million tonnes in the same period of 2014, exceeding Anglo Pacific’s estimates at the time it acquired the royalty for US$65 million in February. The acquisition was completed in March, but Anglo Pacific received royalty income starting from Jan. 1.

In Brazil, Maracas continued its production ramp-up during the period, and achieved record monthly production of 487 tonnes of vanadium in May — the highest level since production started in August 2014. Anglo Pacific acquired a 2% net smelter return royalty on all mineral products sold from Maracas for US$22 million in June 2014.

Meanwhile, Anglo Pacific benefitted from strong royalty income from Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RIO; LSE: RIO) Kestrel mine in Queensland, Australia, which produces hard coking coal and thermal coal. Kestrel churned out 2.3 million tonnes in the first half of 2015, in a 42% increase from the 1.6 million tonnes it produced in the same period in 2014.

Based on Rio Tinto’s production forecasts for Kestrel, 50–55% of total production this year will be within Anglo Pacific’s royalty paying lands — most of which will accrue in the second half of the year — and Treger expects this will increase to 60–65% in 2016 and to 90% in 2017. “That should bake in a lot of growth,” he says, despite lower commodity prices.

“The first six months of 2015 have been encouraging ... and the outlook for the remainder of 2015 is equally encouraging,” Treger says.

As a royalty company, he adds, Anglo Pacific is shielded from some of the worst effects of the current downturn. “We’re not immune to that, and our royalty income would have been higher if prices were better, but we’re better positioned than some of the other companies,” he says, adding that Anglo Pacific has benefitted in some jurisdictions from the U.S. dollar’s appreciation against local currencies.
He says the flip side of the downturn is that “almost all companies are needy of funding — other than perhaps BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto — so we’ll be trying to see if we can engage with some of the higher-quality counterparties to see if we can provide funding for them and alleviate their stressed balance sheets.

“We have very little debt and a much less risky income line compared to the mining companies, so we’re not squeezed as much when commodity prices decline,” he continues. “Being a royalty company is a more resilient model in these circumstances.”;

Anglo Pacific ended the first half with £1.2-million net cash and a £16.2-million undrawn revolving credit facility.
Analysts at Investec Securities in the U.K. say that the financial results showed “good improvement” and “an encouraging earnings outlook.”

Looking ahead, Treger says the company is “keen to do more” acquisitions, but will take a disciplined apporach.

He says that “it’s easy to spend money in the sector, as we all know. We think there will be more opportunities given we are effectively a financier to a distressed sector, and people will see our royalties as quite an attractive funding mechanism, compared to the alternatives they have.”

Despite the gloomy outlook for coal, Treger emphasizes that Anglo Pacific’s royalties are on “high-quality clean coal with less impurities” that not only command a premium, but will be sought after and valuable as a percentage of global energy production, as countries grapple with meeting pollution controls.

“The world isn’t going to move away from coal,” he says. “If you have high-quality premium coal that will be increasingly valuable, while sulphurus and dirty coal will be increasingly taxed. If you have the right type of coal you should be fine.”


Narrabri, for instance, produces low ash (12%), low sulphur (0.5%), low phosphorus, high-energy export thermal coal and mid-volatile pulverized coal injection coal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM
Anglo Pacific Group PLC Investor Relations

[neilyb675] 03/9/2015 11:38

GM forms received, filled in and posted.

[quepassa] 03/9/2015 09:59

This is an extract from a recent article about APF on page 52 of The Investors Chronicle, current edition of 28th August.


" But any near-term recovery in the group's share price looks unlikely, with investor sentiment towards the mining industry moving from bad to worse ".


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[buywell3] 01/9/2015 07:15

Is buying a commodity share for its dividend in the current market a good reason to buy ?

Chartwise APF looks at best fragile

The big sideways move of late is being held due to someone buying

How long will they do so in the face of a Global slowdown ?

China is going to bring one about despite what market bulls say ... wake up and look at the facts


''China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index for August fell to 49.7, from 50.0 in July, marking its lowest level since August 2012. A number below 50.0 implies a contraction of the industry.

Separately, the Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, fell to a final reading of 47.3 in August from 47.8 in July, the lowest point in more than six years, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit Ltd. said Tuesday.

Reinforcing the idea that the regional economies are getting caught up in China's economic malaise, manufacturing data from Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam also showed declines for August on Tuesday.''

[neilyb675] 26/8/2015 14:17

The Board has declared an interim dividend for 2015 of 4.00p per share, maintaining the 2014 final dividend per share. The dividend will be paid on February 4, 2016 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on November 27, 2015. The shares will be quoted ex-dividend in London on November 26, 2015 and in Canada on November 25, 2015.

[neilyb675] 26/8/2015 14:14

"The first six months of 2015 have been encouraging. Income has increased significantly and royalty income in the first half of the year is now ahead of what we received for the whole of 2014. This increase is largely driven by new sources of income from Narrabri and Maracás, which further demonstrates the progress we are making on executing our strategy of adding to, and diversifying, our royalty income.



The outlook for the remainder of 2015 is equally encouraging, with Narrabri running significantly ahead of our production estimates at the time of acquisition and the latest Kestrel forecasts from Rio Tinto continuing to suggest 70-75% of production within our lands in H2 15. Both outcomes should allow us to report much higher royalty income for 2015 as a whole, despite the fall in commodity prices experienced in the year to date."

[ftseproactive] 26/8/2015 13:01

Anglo Pacific CEO Julian Treger speaks to Proactive ....

[bolador] 26/8/2015 11:31

APF unch on figs as expected,4p div as expected.All good news.
Company still clearing up old kitchen sink as expected.
Making progress in very heavy bear market.Well done.

some posters never change,the rest move on.

[christh] 26/8/2015 07:54

Royalties increasing, more cash flowing in by so many projects.
Kestrel rising in the next quarter, Narrabri paying well.
Dividend 4p .

well done

[quepassa] 26/8/2015 07:34

Maximum sugar-coating,

Maximum positive spin,

All so glowingly positive.

But another loss.

This time £8.8million.

Dividend nowhere near being covered again.

There is in my view a gulf between the positive spin which frequently accompanies APF figures and the hard figures.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[gavapentin] 25/8/2015 14:37

P - I presume you have already calculated your version.
Your smile would suggest positivity