Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 08/7/2015 09:42

Good to see a sensible post with some proper speadsheet calculations. - Albeit that most figures are understandably assumptions.

You have in many ways hit the nail on the head, regarding their largest royalty, being Kestrel. Thank you for that.


Personally, my opinion is that your volume figures are optimistic. However, let us for sake of argument work with your figures.

Your Kestrel forecasts show income of DOLLARS $4.9m for 2015. And DOLLARS $12.75m for 2016.

Anglo Pacific have some 170million shares in issue.

This is their Dividend Policy "In the the medium term, the Board is committed to a minimum annual total dividend of 8p subject to, amongst other things, the level of adjusted earnings, proceeds from the disposals of non-core assets and prospective investment opportunities. ".

That means a potential minimum Dividend of STERLING £13.6m (170m x 8p) for 2015

That's before normal business overheads such as salaries/bonuses, interest etc etc.

The royalties from elsewhere hardly look likely in my opinion to be able to bridge the enormous gulf between your projected Kestrel income figures and a potential dividend of £13.6million plus a few million for normal overheads/salaries.

There is a big difference between your projected 2015 DOLLAR $4.9million from royalty income at Kestrel and a potential 2015 dividend of STERLING £13.6million.

Where will the difference come from?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 07/7/2015 13:54

Here is a quick, conservative IMHO, calculation of the Kestrel royalty
ramp-up ...

Estimated APF royalties from the Kestrel Mine
[based on Coking:Thermal coal = 80%]
YEAR........APF coal......MT....$/MT......Value.....%....Royalty
2014... 20% of 2.7MT... 0.54.... 110.... $59.4m... 4.5... $2.67m
2015... 50% of 3.5MT... 1.75..... 80... $140.0m... 3.5... $4.90m
2016... 90% of 4.5MT... 4.05..... 90... $364.5m... 3.5.. $12.75m
2017... 92% of 5.3MT... 4.88..... 90... $438.8m... 3.5.. $15.54m
- © Piedro 2015

[neilyb675] 05/7/2015 13:15

QuePassa
3 Jul'15 - 17:30 - 7406 of 7409 0 1 (Filtered)
QuePassa
3 Jul'15 - 18:21 - 7408 of 7409 0 2 (Filtered)

[bhoddhisattva] 05/7/2015 09:31

What always puzzles me is when a poster who claims to be disinterested starts posting so much that one must assume they are invested in some way - short or long.

Yet they profess to be disinterested, no holding, not short - move along, nothing to see.

But they produce a half page post - cogent though it maybe - that makes one stop, think twice and wonder.

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 17:30

You never did answer the question in 7329.

Here's another puzzler for you which you won't answer.

You just wrote the following:- "Ask yourself, why did the ceo bought shares with his own money last week? Directors do not throw their money away!"

Look at this RNS from a year ago, June 2014. Did they get it right then?

QUOTE

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the "Company") (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) announces that it received notification on June 3, 2014 of the following transactions by connected persons of Mr. Julian Treger and Mr. Michael Blyth, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Company respectively.

On June 3, 2014, Kings Chapel International Limited, in which Mr. Treger has a beneficial interest, bought 75,000 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company ("Shares") at a price of GBP1.84 per Share.

UNQUOTE

come on mousey, what's your answer to that one?

QP

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 16:27

Neilyb is so BORINGLY STUPID that he thinks losing half his money in a year is a good deal.

He's TOO THICK to understand



QP

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 16:24

You are a mouse.

-Get back into your hole!

Post 7329 refers.


QP



ps.maths is another one of your many failings.

What happens if the share falls another 50% like it did last year?

The Directors don't always get it right. If they did, how come they bought a royalty in London Mining which went bust?

You need to take care if you blindly put your money on Director's dealings without thinking about it.

You never did answer the question in 7329.

Here's another puzzler for you which you won't answer.

You just wrote the following:- "Ask yourself, why did the ceo bought shares with his own money last week? Directors do not throw their money away!"

Look at this RNS from a year ago, June 2014. Did they get it right then?

QUOTE

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the "Company") (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) announces that it received notification on June 3, 2014 of the following transactions by connected persons of Mr. Julian Treger and Mr. Michael Blyth, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Company respectively.

On June 3, 2014, Kings Chapel International Limited, in which Mr. Treger has a beneficial interest, bought 75,000 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company ("Shares") at a price of GBP1.84 per Share.

UNQUOTE

come on mousey, what's your answer to that one?

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 16:13

Director buys have been happening a lot it seems ......cos we are undervalued.

29/06/2015 14:00 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group PLC Director's Share Dealings
18/06/2015 14:00 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group PLC Director's Share Dealings
15/06/2015 15:36 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group PLC Director's Share Dealings
10/06/2015 14:06 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group PLC Director's Share Dealings

[christh] 03/7/2015 16:10

QP,
blabbering babboon.
You buy for the long term, forget the current price.
If you have £100 in the bank you will get 30p interst if you are lucky!
If you have £100 worth of shares at 85p you get 8p per share that is
100 shares x 0.08=£8

so check again!

Ignore the current price as it flactuates, and may I remind you APF is a royalty company not a mining stock as others.

Ask yourself, why did the ceo bought shares with his own money last week?
Directors do not throw their money away!

Enough said!

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 15:12

Neilyb is so BORINGLY STUPID that he thinks losing half his money in a year is a good deal.

He's too thick to understand



QP

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 15:08

Do you understand apps ?

Do you need it spelling out like a 3 year old would ??

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 15:05

Neilyb is so BORINGLY STUPID that he thinks losing half his money in a year is a good deal.

He's too thick to understand



QP

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 15:04

You would need to know apps to make such a 50% loss claim. Remember decent investors buy in chunks, buy into weakness and reinvest dividends. Hope you learn something from this QP/RCT.

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 14:55

Well said.
He's too thick to understand.
QP

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 14:50

This guy is so BORINGLY STUPID that he thinks losing half his money in a year is a good deal.




QP

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 14:42

QP mentally ill.

Does not understand cyclical investments, and does not understand long term investment approach.

[quepassa] 03/7/2015 14:31

A year ago the share price of APF was 180p.

Today it is 85/86p bid.

Anyone who has held APF for the last twelve months has lost more than half their capital.

If you had £100 invested in APF 12 months ago, it is today worth less than £50.

That is dire performance in my opinion.

If you are happy with that performance on your portfolio, then stick with it.

However, the recent reduction in coal prices will undoubtedly hit coal royalties for six.

We saw what happened to Peabody Energy when they recently released their statement. The share price fell 25% in one day because of lowered income partly associated with their Australian seaborne coal interests.

In terms of the late 1980's didn't the UK still have some coal mines in the late 80's as well?

What happened to those?

Production is shifting away from Australia because of transportation costs.


Seems also that Queensland are taking also a massive hit on royalties as well.

If Queensland take a hit on royalties - as did Peabody- it seems highly likely to me that other coal investors will also be sharing the same pain.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 14:05

Bolador - excellent post.

[bolador] 03/7/2015 10:46

Interesting IEA forecast on coal posted by Piedro. And the rest of the world ?
Commodity markets are cyclical,there is nothing odd to see here, business as usual, move along.

Temporary lower demand, lower stock prices, opportunity knocks. That's what the boys and girls think at APF and I am along for the ride. Hopefully getting 7% pa whilst I wait.

I think it was in the late 1980's when oil traded at $10bbl and the Economist was looking for $5. Que Passa indeed.

[neilyb675] 03/7/2015 10:27

QP.....will be back later, getting his meds from the chemist IMVHPO.

[christh] 03/7/2015 10:09

that screwd up QP's blabbering on coal out of the water.

COAL FOREVER!