Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 23/4/2015 20:33

There you go QP here is the chart you prefer. Thanks for the link.

I hear what you say about prices, but looking at the cost curves, Kestrel and Narrabri look fairly well placed. I'll leave it at that.

[quepassa] 23/4/2015 17:28

No. I don't think you comprehend again.

Whilst the global demand for fuels will undoubtedly rise into the future. The part played by coal in that growth will be static at best.

You must also take into account the large number of new coal mines which are constantly being brought on stream in the Far East, India and elsewhere which are increasingly making other mines in the developed world significantly less viable. Remember that the UK once had a coal industry -the biggest in the world.

Using your flawed logic, we'd still be digging more and more coal from the UK nowadays. But what has happened? The UK coal industry is history. That will happen elsewhere.

I do not particularly like the colourful graph from BP about future consumption growth as it is hard to see actual percentage growth in concrete figures and numbers. I don't think it gives a particularly clear, precise or accurate view.

I think the information given by Exxon is clearer. See the graph below from Exxon Mobil ( largest oilco in the world - bigger than BP ). They forecast out to 2040 rather than 2035.

Look at and read the growth rates forecast by Exxon for coal compared to other fuels. Coal is in a sad way. Exxon forecast growth for coal at a paltry 0.1%pa compared for example to gas at 1.6%pa or solar/renewable at 5.8%pa:-



and click on the section headed " Global demand by fuel" to take you to the table/graph.


Yes, coal will be used, but it is ex-growth. The new mines in the developing worlds are making it a very tough and over-competitive market. The mining majors already have in place advanced plans for hiving off legacy coal mines, including Rio who are the main operator at Kestrel.

The outlook for 1)coal demand and in particular 2) COAL PRICES are bleak as there is so much new and cheap capacity of this overly abundant anti-Green and disliked commodity.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP.

[neilyb675] 23/4/2015 15:45

25/06/15 ex div

[christh] 23/4/2015 15:43

will this chart shut up QP?

He can not deny that.

APF will still be getting royalties from Kestrel and the new aquisition beyond
2035!
So dividends will be paid until then, off course if we are still alive!

[piedro] 23/4/2015 15:05

Great chart Stevie.

Can you post it on the other board?

TIA.

[rrr] 23/4/2015 10:38

Interesting posts, thank you, rrr

[stevie blunder] 23/4/2015 10:17

Like Piedro says, coal will be around for a while. If you do believe in new technology radically changing the future, you could just as well say that Carbon Capture and storage will make coal more usable.

[piedro] 23/4/2015 07:38

correct ....
but still in 2035, coal will be 27%
hence no hurry

[christh] 23/4/2015 07:36

RNS Number : 0539L
Anglo Pacific Group PLC
23 April 2015

Kestrel update and 2016 guidance
--------------------------------------------------------
Anglo Pacific Group PLC ("Anglo Pacific" or the "Company") (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) is pleased to provide an update on its Kestrel royalty following the Q1 2015 operational update by Rio Tinto on April 21, 2015.

Rio Tinto announced production from the Kestrel Mine of 1.017 Mt of hard coking coal and 0.118 Mt of thermal coal for Q1 2015. Production rates at Kestrel are improving following the long wall ramp up as total production at the mine during Q1 2015 was 147% higher than Q4 2014 and 30% higher than Q1 2014. The Kestrel Mine production rate is expected to reach full production within the next 9 to 15 months as the mine continues to ramp up.

Rio Tinto's Q1 Kestrel production update indicates that production tonnes on Anglo Pacific's royalty lands continue to be in line with guidance for 2015.

The Company estimates that Rio Tinto will mine between 60% and 65% of total production within Anglo Pacific's royalty lands during 2016.

[quepassa] 23/4/2015 07:06

Thank you for the interesting link.

Yes, but did you read and heed the last two sentences?

Copied below for ease of reference:-


Quote

Dudley said it’s inevitable that natural gas will win that horse race, also highlighting the fact that natural gas is the cleanest, lowest emissions fuel of the three.

He said that natural gas emissions were half of coal, and oil is somewhere in between the two.

Unquote


That is why, according to your source, the prospects for coal are not at all positive. Coal is the legacy energy.

The outlooks for gas and oil are far better.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 23/4/2015 06:33

Not everyone is worried ....

BP’s Bob Dudley: No shift to renewables any time soon
Bob Dudley, the CEO of BP, has said that the planet is far away from being run solely on renewable energy power, during a Q&A session at the IHS Ceraweek conference in Houston.
...
He pointed that if one surveys on the percentage of renewable supply to the world energy mix, one would get an incorrect answer.
“You get an answer where people believe more than 20 percent of the energy is supplied by renewables. And the real answer is about three (percent) today. And it will move fast, but not fast enough for some,” he explained. ....


... or in a hurry

[quepassa] 21/4/2015 12:11

You never did respond to the question (post 7144) of:


Have you been saying the price would go up for three years and has it?



So, what's your answer then?

Your silence speaks volumes.


QP

[christh] 21/4/2015 11:41

rrr 21 Apr'15 - 09:45 - 7173 of 7173

Are you trying to upset QuePassa?

LOL

[rrr] 21/4/2015 09:45

RNS today:

[christh] 21/4/2015 07:19

* Higher first quarter coal production was primarily
driven by improved production rates at Kestrel South
following the longwall ramp-up, increased semi-soft
production at Mount Thorley and Warkworth and higher
thermal production at Hail Creek.

Extract from Rio Tintos 1Quarter results released today.

[quepassa] 21/4/2015 07:05

I am sure they are. But what are they!
QP

[piedro] 20/4/2015 20:42

My credentials are impeccable I believe

LOL :-)

[quepassa] 20/4/2015 18:16

I think you are quite wrong.

Your unverified/unattributed source shows an average price $65.82 for coal with a 3% increase from previous quarter. What is your source?

My verified source (indexmundi) shows an Average price of US$64.95 which is down 1.28%.

Monthly declines in price since Sep 2014 are reported as follows.


Sep 2014 $70.65 -
Oct 2014 68.26 -3.38 %
Nov 2014 67.02 -1.82 %
Dec 2014 66.90 -0.18 %
Jan 2015 66.54 -0.54 %
Feb 2015 65.79 -1.13 %
Mar 2015 64.95 -1.28 %


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP


ps. Don't you need to be over 18 to sign an AGM voting form?

[piedro] 20/4/2015 17:38

... you continue to be misled with incomplete research

DYOR means just that - 1st hand or 2nd hand information
is more precise than reporter spiel ...


... published elsewhere

[neilyb675] 20/4/2015 17:35

just filled in my AGM voting form, off to post them in a minutes......QuePassa have you done yours ??? Ooops I forgot you don't have a position here !!!

[piedro] 20/4/2015 16:21

Coking coal price settlement for Q2 2015 of US$110/mt and thermal coal price settlement for the year to March 31, 2016 of US$70/mt. The higher than expected thermal coal price settlement is positive for both the Kestrel and Narrabri royalties. We continue to expect a recovery in both coking coal and thermal coal prices over the medium to long term
RNS Number : 3955I
25 March 2015

- edited

[jimbo55] 20/4/2015 11:19

Chris,

If China is importing more iron ore than ever before, why has the spot price fallen through the floor over the last 12 months?

I also read today that Australia's iron ore majors are only some 33% of the way into the production ramp up that was anticipated to be required to meet that former record demand. Wonder what that will do for the iron ore price over the next 12 months as they complete the remaining 67% - which they surely will if they desire to both maintain margin and put their weaker competitors out of business.

Piedro, re. Japanese demand for coking coal, are they going to be buying at a premium to spot? I'd expect the spot price to continue to suffer due to weaker Chinese steel production, so unless Japan have committed to buying Kestral coal at a previously agreed premium to spot, I'd expect APFs Kestral related royalty income to suffer in due course.

Cheers.

Jimbo

[christh] 20/4/2015 07:55

Jimbo55 18 Apr'15 - 05:29 - 7161 of 7162
APF has other royalties as well such as Vanadium.

Uses
------------
About 80% of the vanadium produced is used as a steel additive. Vanadium-steel alloys are very tough and are used for armour plate, axles, tools, piston rods and crankshafts. Less than 1% of vanadium, and as little chromium, makes steel shock resistant and vibration resistant. Vanadium alloys are used in nuclear reactors because of vanadium’s low neutron-absorbing properties.

Vanadium(V) oxide is used as a pigment for ceramics and glass, as a catalyst and in producing superconducting magnets.
----------------------------------------------------

The company said will get higher royalties from the coal mining of Kestrel mine
until 2017 ,starting from the 2nd quarter 2015.
Also the new aquisition will add to the royalties so the revenue and profits will rise year upon year.
China is importing more iron ore than ever before.
RIO,BHP and VALE have been shipping iron ore,tonnes and tonnes at record levels to China so the demand is there.
So to create Steel and other grades of strong Steel they need coking coal
which again they will have to import great quantities.
The results in August will show that.(It might be a trading statement before that).
The share price will be very much higher by Xmas, close to 150p by my calculations.

DYOR