Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 25/3/2015 07:41

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of Anglo Pacific, commented:

"The transformation strategy that was initiated approximately 18 months ago is now starting to bear fruit, as Anglo Pacific has a royalty portfolio that currently includes six producing royalties, with additional earlier stage assets, diversified for commodity and geography. Whilst the Narrabri royalty acquisition was executed after the year end, it was an undoubted highlight for the Company. We were particularly pleased by the confidence shown by investors in the accompanying fundraise.

While the mining sector continues to face challenges, we believe that this in itself brings opportunities for Anglo Pacific and we will assess opportunities that fit our criteria of enhancing value and growth to our shareholders. Our financial resources have been strengthened and we have capacity to deliver on our strategy to continue the positive diversification of our royalty portfolio away from coal and other bulk commodities, which should in turn support returns to shareholders. We are committed to a progressive dividend policy that is both affordable and appropriate. We approach 2015 with cautious optimism and look forward to building on our recent progress."

[neilyb675] 25/3/2015 07:40

Coking coal price settlement for Q2 2015 of US$110/mt and thermal coal price settlement for the year to March 31, 2016 of US$70/mt. The higher than expected thermal coal price settlement is positive for both the Kestrel and Narrabri royalties. We continue to expect a recovery in both coking coal and thermal coal prices over the medium to long term

[buywell2] 24/3/2015 08:39

COAL price and demand are the problems

Here is a chart that shows how a company that depends upon it falls as they weaken


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



The blue line is the one in the aussie sand

If it goes it won't be pretty methinks

dyor

[quepassa] 24/3/2015 07:52

Post 7107.
The important bits:-

However, despite Australia taking the top exporter mantle, things are still looking bleak ahead for coal prices, particularly thermal coal.

Coal futures have fallen to near decade lows, following a short abortive rally.

The API2 2015 coal futures have fallen, dropping below US$60 for the first time since January 2006.

In the wake of this the ANZ Bank has dropped its forecast for Japanese contract prices from $75 per tonne to $70, while NAB has called $72.50, a significant drop from last year’s March price of $81.80 per tonne while most analysts are reporting the current levels as the market floor.

Prices may hurt even more as Chinese demand tapers off after

the country announced plans to reduce consumption levels by 160 million tonnes over the next five years.

Much of the coal market is looking to reduce output or sell off underperforming coal mines to address market oversupply and return strength to the coal price, even as Rio Tinto increases its saleable reserves at its massive hail Creek coal mine.





Not looking good in my view.
APF results soon will reveal all.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[buywell2] 24/3/2015 07:19

Latest data from China is bad

Means COAL looks a poor bet for some time

Aussie fixation on COAL could mean the $AUD likely to weaken quite a bit in coming years and their over inflated property market, dearest in the world .... set for a crash taking their banking sector with it

Recent chart lows could get retested



Early this am whilst u lot were in the sack


''The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.2 in March, compared with a final reading of 50.7 in February, data showed. A number less than 50 indicates a contraction.

Early manufacturing numbers from both Japan and China continue to be weak, which is a very bad sign for oil demand in the long run, analyst Daniel Ang at Phillip Futures said. "These two [countries] are primary regions for imports and a weaker figure puts demand push for oil on a weaker note," he said.

China's manufacturing numbers are at an 11-month low and the first signal of continued weakness in growth, which "comes as no surprise, given the clear downward momentum during the first two months of the year," Brian Jackson, China Economist at consulting firm IHS, said.

Oil prices are also under pressure due to rising U.S. oil supplies. Later Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly stockpile data.''

[christh] 24/3/2015 07:03

Australia slated to become largest coal exporter

24 March, 2015 Cole Latimer
Australia will resume its position as the world’s largest coal exporter, taking the title back from Indonesia.

In the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly, published by the Department of Industry, it highlights Australia’s continuing dominance of the sector, with the country predicted to move back into the top position by 2017.

This in spite of Australia currently being only the fifth largest coal producer.

Much of this will be supported by continued demand in Asia are the region continues its process of wider industrialisation and urbanisation.

This ‘underpins the positive outlook for Australian coal,” the Minerals Council of Australia said, “with our metallurgical coal and thermal coal playing an integral role in meeting steel making demand and the provision of affordable and reliable base load energy”.

Queensland has been leading much of this export push, having recorded a consistent series of record coal export levels.

The state saw almost 216 million tonnes exported in 2014, higher than previous guidance, and a consistent rate of growth from 168 million tonnes and 196 million tonnes in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Globally the metallurgical coal trade market is forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent to 316 million tonnes this year.

While China’s imports declined by around 16 per cent to 65 million tonnes last year, it is forecast to return to an increase, jumping by six per cent this year.

India has been filling the demand gap as its coking coal demands increased by 18 per cent to 44 million tonnes in 2014, and expected to continue this upwards trend at an average of 2.2 per cent annually to reach 57 million tonnes in 2020.

However, despite Australia taking the top exporter mantle, things are still looking bleak ahead for coal prices, particularly thermal coal.

Coal futures have fallen to near decade lows, following a short abortive rally.

The API2 2015 coal futures have fallen, dropping below US$60 for the first time since January 2006.

In the wake of this the ANZ Bank has dropped its forecast for Japanese contract prices from $75 per tonne to $70, while NAB has called $72.50, a significant drop from last year’s March price of $81.80 per tonne while most analysts are reporting the current levels as the market floor.

Prices may hurt even more as Chinese demand tapers off after

the country announced plans to reduce consumption levels by 160 million tonnes over the next five years.

Much of the coal market is looking to reduce output or sell off underperforming coal mines to address market oversupply and return strength to the coal price, even as Rio Tinto increases its saleable reserves at its massive hail Creek coal mine.

Anglo American has flagged the sale of two of its coal mines, Callide and Dartbrook, telling Australian Miningin terms of its broader coal portfolio everything is currently under review and the outcome of that review is still to be determined.

The move is part of a company-wide coal shakeup which will also see the review of South African operations.

According to Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani coal mines will be closed or suspended at a steady rate until reduced supply drives a price recovery, adding that globally they will most likely shut at a rate of around one every two to three weeks until the lack of supply finally affects price.

Glencore is operating in the same vein, having reduced output over Christmas by 15 million tonnes by temporarily closing operations.

According to the miner it was "a considered management decision given the current oversupply situation".

Glencore said this will reduce the need to push incremental sales in the weak commodity price environment.

“We don’t want to be the ones forcing the price down with oversupply,” Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg said earlier this month

The miner has also announced the possibility of closing its South African coal operations.
However it is not all bad news.
BREE said from 2016 the market balance is expected to tighten as more mines close and availability tightens.

This will result in contract prices rising to US$86 a tonne by 2019.

According to analysts the falling dollar is also likely to insulate margins in Australia.

“Modest productivity gains, the rapid fall in oil prices and currency devaluation in Australia and Russia will help lower costs. Therefore, Australian mines stand in a relatively strong position compared with higher cost suppliers – particularly those in the U.S.,” Wood Mackenzie said.

[quepassa] 23/3/2015 13:25

Bad news on BlackRock World Mining Investment Trust last Thursday after coming out with results showing a year of steep underperformance.

Apologies from the Chairman, senior departure, new manager appointed.

They seem to have imposed a very wise maximum investment of 3% of gross assets in any single royalty going forward to ensure diversification, after losing 6.8% on ill-fated London Mining.

According to the Week-End FT (page 3- Money Section) an analyst at Numis says "The credibility of the management team (has been) damaged by write-downs in the royalty investments."

The FT writes that BlackRock World Mining lost some 26% of its nav in 2014 against a 13% fall for the Euromoney World Mining index.

Not good for BlackRock. London Mining damages credibility. Fund manager leaves. Interesting new investment guidelines about max investment per situation and diversification.

Other players may be interested to take note of BlackRock's moves.

It will of course be interesting to compare and contrast APF's forthcoming results who also suffered a significant write-down on London Mining.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 16/3/2015 15:51

7102,7103,7104 - posts highly recommended, a proper investors contribution for fellow investors.

[christh] 16/3/2015 15:09

Coal gasification: The clean energy of the future?
By Richard Anderson Business reporter, BBC News
14 April 2014 Last updated at 00:10

[christh] 16/3/2015 15:06

Coal Ranks High in the Global Energy Mix
12 Feb. 2015


Is Clean Coal Possible?
The future of coal depends equally on technological innovations to make coal cleaner and policy-makers committed to improving energy efficiency, through mechanisms such as tax incentives and emissions trading.

Some of the innovative pollution control solutions for coal combustion (treating flue gases) can be retrofitted to existing coal-burning plants. R&D is also being conducted on cleaning up coal prior to combustion.

One of the leading clean coal technologies is called integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). By converting the coal into a gas or liquid, the process can improve combustion efficiency by 50%. It can also be used in specially adapted engines, in the same way as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
(See Close-Up: "Coal, Used in the Power Generation, Iron and Steel, and Petrochimical Industries").

hxxp://www.planete-energies.com/en/medias/explanations/coal-ranks-high-global-energy-mix

[christh] 16/3/2015 15:03

The future of coal in China, India, Australia, the US, EU, and UK
Mat Hope 16 Jul 2014, 13:00

Have reports of coal's demise been greatly exaggerated? It depends which part of the world you look at.

Global coal use has grown significantly over the last decade, with global demand increasing 60 per cent between 1990 and 2011, according to research body the International Energy Agency (IEA). With some countries implementing climate policies to limit the use of polluting fuels, some commentators are predicting coal's imminent demise.

That's probably premature. While some European countries are ramping up renewables, shutting coal plants and closing mines, other parts of the world are planning an extraction frenzy to feed emerging economies' seemingly insatiable energy demand.

Here's a quick guide to coal's prospects around the world.

hxxp://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/07/the-future-of-coal-in-china-india-the-us-eu-and-uk/

Coal and the UK's climate legislation are basically incompatible, barring large-scale carbon capture and storage. The UK has a legally binding commitment to reduce emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. As the power sector currently accounts for about 30 per cent of the country's emissions, a lot of the cuts will have to be made by switching to cleaner sources, like nuclear or renewables. EU legislation also requires the UK to ramp up renewables and phase out old coal power plants.

But as the data we've just discussed suggests, without international efforts to decarbonise, it's likely the coal that the UK or Europe would have used will still get burned somewhere. Coal's global future ultimately depends on whether policymakers implement stringent climate policy.

In summary, a range of projections suggest coal is not dead and is probably not going to die any time soon. For now, assessments of the coal industry's health rather depend on which part of the world is under the microscope.

[quepassa] 16/3/2015 14:58

Talking of subscription only and getting what you pay for, investors who subscribed to the recent Open Offer at 80p are now already under water.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 16/3/2015 13:40

"Anthracite prices continue to rise"
Coke and Anthracite Market Report


- it's subscription only but you get what you pay for

[rcturner2] 16/3/2015 13:25

UK coal consumption peaked in 1956 and has been falling ever since.

christh is just best ignored I think.

[rcturner2] 16/3/2015 13:24

UK coal use to fall to lowest level since industrial revolution

[jimbo55] 16/3/2015 13:07

christh,

That's quite a big statement. Do you not think that renewables will begin to take up a larger share - there have been some pretty stunning advancements in solar cells in recent years so I read.

It's also worth paying attention to the work of guys such as Diego Parilla, who predict more of a flattening of demand between different energy sources rather than everybody being in the oil-based energy camp for example.

Are you sure you're not thinking with a mindset that was more suited to the post-millenium "noughties" decade of booming commodity markets as China rose. China is having a few problems now if you haven't noticed - particularly with their real estate market. The World does change, and so does demand in commodity markets. Everything I read about coal currently points to a market suffering chronic over-supply. This is not likely to end any time in the immediate future.

I've heard equities described as an "up the staircase, down the elevator" type of investment in terms of how they tend to rise and fall. Commodities tend to behave in just the opposite manner, so we're currently in the "down the staircase" period of falling prices caused by chronic over-supply. I suspect that in the case of commodities such as coal and iron ore, we are years rather than months away from an "up the elevator" moment.

Just a few thoughts anyway. On a TA front though, APF's chart ain't looking the greatest. I'd say it's going to head lower. Happy for you guys if I'm proved wrong...

Cheers.

Jimbo

[christh] 16/3/2015 11:32

Coal will always be the prime matter for creating energy, a natural fuel,less toxic than any other type of fuel.
Although it emits carbon gas it can be be controlled and stopped from polluting
the atmosphere.
It will always be the cheapest form of energy to produce, cheapest to use, less process than oil/gas/nuclear and widely found in our planet.
At the end of the day the economics prevail.
If you want energy then you need to burn coal to run the power generators, the steel mills,for heating etc.
The demand for coal will grow not diminish.
That's it.Pure and simple explanation.

[quepassa] 16/3/2015 08:50

It will be interesting to see the outcome of Oxford University voting about pulling out of investments on coal.

According to the BBC web-site:-

QUOTE
It is part of a global movement for public organisations to divest from fossil fuels.

Glasgow University has done so, along with other organisations worldwide.

They include Stanford University, the British Medical Association, the World Council of Churches and the Rockefeller Brothers.

This month, members of the London Assembly urged the Mayor Boris Johnson to withdraw investments in coal, oil and gas.


It is said to be the fastest-growing divestment movement the world has seen as the public becomes increasingly aware that firms have discovered three times more fossil fuel than can be safely burned without excessive risk to the climate.

UNQUOTE

The full article online at BBC/news/health makes fascinating reading.




The growing reach and clout of the Green lobby about divestment from the polluting industries and high-carbon fuels is interesting and gathering momentum.

One wonders whether the growing ethics concerning the use of coal may at some point start having a real influence on the coal majors such as Rio, BHP and Anglo-American.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rcturner2] 13/3/2015 17:11

Maybe concentrate more on your actual investment?

[neilyb675] 13/3/2015 15:50

You can't disapprove of this message twice.

[rcturner2] 13/3/2015 15:27

Looks to me as though this is heading below the placing price of 80p.

[neilyb675] 13/3/2015 10:13

7088 - highly recommended

[rcturner2] 13/3/2015 09:39

Backs up what I said about China's investment in green energy.

"China is now the world's biggest investor in renewable energy" says the BBC no less, so hardly ignorant.

[quepassa] 13/3/2015 09:34

The thing is that it is not my argument. Although I fully agree with it.

It's in the FT and it's what the IEA say.

I guess they don't understand economics either and their argument is totally invalid as well.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 13/3/2015 09:25

QuePassa 13 Mar'15 - 08:30 - 7086 of 7087

elementary, you do not understand economics!
People can not afford to pay exorbitant prices for electricity, neither the governments can rely on renewable energy to power the generators or produce enough
power to sustain and meet the demand of industry.
Coal demand will grow as it is cheaper than nuclear power,more efficient than
solar,wind,wave and any form of power generator.
Coal can be used anywhere and with the new technology can contain and reduce emissions as we do in this country.
The demand for power will never be met as more appliances are been made for the house, the industrial sector needs more power, more houses have been built
and especially in China.
So your argument is totally invalid.