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|Coking coal prices to remain high
September 26, 2016News Cole Latimer
Coking coal volatility is off the cards, with prices likely to remain high after recent rallies, Goldman Sachs believe.
China’s recent plans to dramatically slash its coal output by reducing its mining and steel sectors has driven metallurgical coal’s price through the roof, seeing the spot price double to more than US$205 per tonne.
In January it declared it would not approve any new coal mines for the next three years, in a bid to cut growing stockpiles, as well as increase its alternative energy supplies.
The country also plans to reduce national output by around 60 million tons in 2016, and around 500 million tonnes of coal over the next 3 to 5 years, with the Shanxi province slashing around 100 million tonnes of production alone by 2020.
In March China’s government then stated it would lay off close to two million workers in its coal and steel industry to help cut market oversupply.
An official at China’s human resources and social security ministry said the nation’s industries expect to cut around 1.8 million workers as it seeks to reduce capacity, and address the growing stockpiles in the country.
This plan to slash the country’s coal and steel workforce came only days after Chinese coal companies pushed the government to set a price floor for coal to protect against bankruptcy and stem job cuts.
Additionally, the government has taken further steps to reduce output, cutting operating days from 330 to 276 per year.
The country’s decision first began to make an impact in May this year, with early forecasts of a minimum 20% increase in coking coal prices.
China’s continued action has made investment banks and funds even more bullish on coal’s future, with recent Goldman Sachs notes raising the 2017 contract prices forecast by 64% to US$135 per tonne and its 2018 estimates by 47% to US$125 per tonne; this is extremely bullish compared to current third quarter prices of US$92.50, according to Bloomberg.
The note explained the changes come on the back of a different operating environment.
“We see upside risks if current policies remain unchanged going into next year and the resulting shortage overwhelms the ability of producers in Australia and the U.S. to respond,” Goldman Sachs stated.
Macquarie Group also followed suit, raising its fourth quarter predictions by
84%, and 2017 first quarter forecast by 56%.
|Good post QP.|
keep it up!
|Great insight as ever, served up with a dash of patronisation ;)
Good luck QP|
|You will recall that you said your spoon had hit the floor with mouth aghast when I wrote post 721 on 24th. March this year on the bulletin board titled "Coal or a Brighter Future" when the share price was at its very lowest of about 55p.
You attention is drawn particularly to my last sentence of that post since when I have not posted.
However these are my latest and most recent thoughts to stimulate the bulletin board discussion:-
BY NOW, APF should be sitting on some significant and as-yet-unrealised upward re-valuations in their coking coal portfolio royalties since the near vertical price surge in coking coal this year.
And similarly on some other non-coal holdings as well.
Soon the cycle is likely to begin again of big upwards revaluations which will drive up NAV and drive up the share price in tandem.
Whether you love coal or not, the recent multi-year perfect storm for this commodity has now passed.
As a stock, APF are lagging the pack.
Teck Resources of Canada has increased from C$3.5 in June to c$18 - an increase of 500% in anticipation, compared to APF's 100% increase. The other royalty streamers have had huge increases in stock prices.
Dividend cover will also soon be substantially improved which make it a magnet for yield hunters in a yield starved investment world.
Although the long-term outlook for coal remains resolutely in decline, in the short term the demand for coking coal is great given recent events such as the unprecedented restriction on Chinese mines.
This share is likely to play catch-up with the market and with its peer group of royalty companies pretty quickly and likely has a lot further to run upwards.
ALL IMO. DYOR.
|Ahhh, that's more like it.
Feel there's much more to come.|
|looks like he's jetted off over here...
|Agreed - WHERE IS QP??
It's all gone a bit quiet.
That said, QP called it all the way down|
|What has happened to QuePassa It needs some de-ramping in APF to even up the advance in the share price since he (or she) seems to have gone quiet. I have held these for many years and collected great dividends to add to my income but he (she) did have me worried about dividend sustainability but I held. It did come close though. Still think there is more to come from GFRD and like companies able to benefit from house building and major projects to stimulate the economy. GFRD just finished a bypass in South Devon ahead of time, in budget and with minimum disruption. First time I have ever "ramped" but I was impressed. Holding. DYOR.|
|about time! :-)|
|Why isn't this higher already?
Coal prices are going bananas.|
|Couple of snippets :
Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 40% fall in trade in thermal coal if the temperature of the world rises by only 2 degrees Celsius from an estimated 900 million tonnes for 2016 to 527 million tonnes by 2035.
"If we had eggs, we could have ham and eggs. If we had ham." Pardon my scepticism.
But back in the real world:
The price for premium coking coal exported from Australia, the world’s biggest shipper of the commodity, jumped to $158.40 a metric ton Tuesday, according to the Steel Index, a price information provider. That was up 4.1% from Monday and more than double the $78 a ton sellers were getting for their coal at the start of this year. Tuesday’s price was the highest since March 18, 2013, when the commodity traded a little over $159 a ton.
|(seams)get it coal prices are on the way up 18 month high|
|That was another reason to invest, Neilyb675. I like to be in good company ;-))|
|You are amongst other wise investors Mr Lord Gnome sir.|
|Joined you with a few this morning. Invested mainly for the income, but with a good chance of further share price recovery as well.|
|Where is the bear?
Is he now a bull?|
|Investors Chronic cover the latest results, nothing we don't know, except the comment that Peel Hunt reckon the dividend will be covered 1.5 times in 2017, and we should be set for 7-8 years of near 100% Kestrel mining on APF land.|
|Very bullish. Buy n hold fellas.|
|Strong US Dollar should strengthen the revenue/profit as APF is being paid in US$.
(See Chairmans speech, results day)
It should be over 100p by now.|
|SB - I did wonder about the possibility of a lag in the sp; it will be interesting to see how the share price performs over the next week or two|
maybe there is more to come. :)
also the rise may not be sustained and tho the spot price is rising Kestrel probably sells a lot under contract and you will see that there is a lag in the way contract prices respond. But I agree that if Kestrel could get 120$ / ton and 90% is from APF land things start to look rosier, APF was around 180p last time coking coal was this price.
In the conference call with the interims the question was asked about how much coal Narrabri sells into the spot and how much under contract. They couldn't answer because Whitehaven don't release that information. Glad I'm not an analyst!|
|SB - that's quite a significant rise in coal prices - I'm surprised that the APF share price hasn't risen more than it has|
|I'll second that|