Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 10/9/2010 18:34

philou100

Thank you very much for posting above. very interesting.

Like woracle says AEP is way undervalued and should be twice todays price given
the potential.

[woracle] 10/9/2010 18:06

Yes bargain and even cheaper if the useless analyst could be bothered to get the figures of the competitors right...AEP mature acreage is 34.7K ha as opposed to 28.1K in the report, and FFB over 600K rather than 500K. Being housebroker, he's just bigging up his client Asian Plantations, the one I personally wouldn't touch with a barge pole amongst the London ones.

[philou100] 10/9/2010 09:29

AEP: it's a bargain
see:



comparison with the peers: pg 16

[hvs] 09/9/2010 10:03

Is there going to be another assault on £ 6.00 and Breakout ?

[hvs] 30/8/2010 12:29

lol !!!

U have got it spot on.

One thing is for sure though CPO will cross USD 1000 over the next twelve months. You cannot curtail demand from Africa, India and China.

[woracle] 27/8/2010 08:40

LOL Shanklin, u finally discovered the industry's famous Mr Mistry. He could be spot on or not.. After a few years of reading his reports, you will come to the conclusion that his forecasts of short term trends in CPO are about 50/50 at best. Same as an average chimp with a pin ;)

This quote shows how good he is. LOL
"He revised his forecast for growth to 500,000 tons from 1 million tons for 2010."

[woracle] 27/8/2010 05:00

So thats a few weeks CPO to shift as usual or maybe even bought a bit more fertilizer before it goes up. Pretty much in-line with last year and revenue growth. Nothing significant or worth getting excited about either way really ...

[philou100] 26/8/2010 16:57

H1 report:
see : inventories : 8.366K (usd)!!!!

[woracle] 26/8/2010 14:17

So Liberty Square is the seller. Wonder who the buyer is...

[woracle] 23/8/2010 17:08

Probably Roditi selling to Liberty Square again..

[simon42] 23/8/2010 16:35

I would have expected more of a spike considering the lack of liquidity. Maybe there's plenty of stock available or a prearranged swap?

[spaceparallax] 23/8/2010 16:31

indeed, a tidy sum

[woracle] 23/8/2010 16:25

Wow, two 250K buys in the last few minutes. You don't see that very often in such an illiquid stock as AEP !

[woracle] 20/8/2010 13:17

Shanklin, some of the acreage at Tasik is older than 25 years and the program to start re-planting these should have started 2 or 3 years ago but the yields stayed surprisingly good for old trees so they delayed that, so gradual loss of this mature acreage has been expected for last 2 or 3 years now, hence the ramp up in plantings last 2 years especially and going foreward. I agree they are behind schedule this year but if u know about the wet weather in Asia this year, its out of their control. But in the grand scheme of things, 3 or 4K behind over a 50K 5 year plan wont concern them that much. I mean.. oil companies ever reach their targets as planned !

You have to look back in the old reports to see the age and analyse the yield of their various plantations. There is a massive variation..depending primarily on age of acreage and local soil conditions.

[shanklin] 20/8/2010 12:58

woracle

Thank you for your reply

The only negative aspect I can really see here is that planted acreage has not increased significantly over the last year. There seem to be two aspects to this:
- For this year at least, they seem to have reduced their aspirations in terms of new planting from the circa 10k ha p.a. they had been targeting going forward. This may just be due to exceptional weather conditions and they do at least still seem to be ramping this up year-on-year?.
- Although they don't explicitly state it, they appear to have "lost" some of their mature acreage... ...perhaps it was so old that it had ceased to be productive.

On this latter point, I guess its worth commenting that not all mature acreage is equal, depending as it does on the weather, soil and age of the trees with, AIUI, older trees gradually becoming less productive.

On the plus side, weather conditions permitting, everything still seems to be heading in the right direction and AEP appears to be cheap compared with other listed palm oil producers.

[woracle] 20/8/2010 12:42

Shanklin, the new mill won't have a direct impact on profits per se. But without it, they would need to utilise 3rd party mill and that adds to cost. Its just needed to handle the ever growing FFBs in that area. Their strategy has always been to build new mills ahead of production growth. Also, any spare capacity in the mill can be used to process brought in FFBs.

Simon, look back at statements as far back as u like. Its just their reporting style to say profits and cash flow will be satisfactory regardless. Also they tend to warn of every possible negative thats out of their control... CPO, weather, fertiliser costs, currency etc. If you been around long enough here, u will know today''s statement is par for the course.

[lobby ludd] 20/8/2010 12:38

They say the appreciation in the Indonesian rupiah is responsible (in part) for 'rising revenues and operating profit', then for 'rising operating costs'.
How can that be ?

[simon42] 20/8/2010 09:51

These results dont set the world on fire. A steady eddie statement. I think a couple of negatives in there as well. However, solid outlook and business as usual. They also believe Palm oil prices won't rise in the Autumn which is a bit of a dampner.

[shanklin] 20/8/2010 09:06

Any idea how much impact this new mill will have on profits?

[woracle] 20/8/2010 08:53

Really quiet reaction is the norm here, year after year. The lack of traders here is what makes it a great ltbh share for a SIPP. The bad weather in Indo and low yields this year are very well documented. Just think.. 34K ha in production with potential for 140K in next 7 years. What rating an oiler with that kind of "proven reserves" to come on stream, developed from cash flow alone.

[westcountryboy] 20/8/2010 08:35

I think AEP tends to move with the CPO price to some extent, so these results would be more or less anticipated. Anyway, things continue to move in the right direction. Note the slight falling behind in new planting, owing to poor weather, but let's hope that is made up over the rest of the year.

[andysburns] 20/8/2010 08:22

really quiet reaction to the results which is a bit suprising given the strong results and the recent upwards trend in AEP and other Palm oil producers. I guess I will never really understand the vagueries of the market!!

[andysburns] 20/8/2010 07:25

results out this morning - as ususal no notice of the exact date but I can forgive that if they continue to issue good ones!!

Anglo-Eastern Plantations PLC
("AEP" or the "Group")

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2010

Anglo-Eastern Plantations PLC, which owns approximately 141,000 hectares of
plantation land, primarily in Indonesia, is pleased to announce the interims
results for the six months to 30 June 2010.

Financial Highlights
� Revenue of $77.9m (H1 2009: $57.4m)
� Operating profit for the period was $26.1m ( H1 2009: $23.5m)
� Profit before tax increased to $26.7m from $24.0m in the first half of
2009
� Basic earnings per share were 42.0cts (H1 2009: 35.6cts)
� Net cash at 30 June 2010 was $27.1m compared with $36.8m at the year end
and $24.6m at 30 June 2009

Commercial Highlights
� The market average price for crude palm oil for the period was $805/mt
compared to an average of $650/mt for the first half of 2009
� Total own crop production was 266,190 mt a decline of 6% the same period
last year

[hvs] 18/8/2010 18:58

Yes it was shanklin.

Yup our time will come.