Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 01/10/2016 10:06

I'm working on a base line of seeing the debt reduce by $1m / month now. On current exchange rates of £1:$1.3, Call it £750k per month.At that rate of debt repayment, the share price should be increasing by minimum of a ha'penny every month, rising as the overall interest payable also comes down.Might not seem that exciting but, it's a 37% growth rate in the share price per year!Next year, with the economies of the electrical supply & the water processing, that rate of debt repayment should further accelerate.Anything else in terms of new assets, discovery of new resources, increase in price of gold is as yet unknown but, could have a significantly greater impact on mkt cap.Hold & buy on any weakness, would seem a sensible stance to me.

[pixi] 01/10/2016 07:49

I think AAZ is off most people's radar, which is fine by me. It must be making lots of money over the costs of getting it out of the ground with pog over $1300 and if it gets to $1400 this year, even better!

[brasso3] 01/10/2016 06:36

Lets hope they can get near 19,000oz for Q3 in 2 weeks time. I think 18,000oz is probably realistic if September was a decent month. With an average gold price of $1320 and production costs at $546 the production profits should look very good.

Revenue - 18,000 x 0.87 x $1320 = $20.6m

Profit - 18,000 x 0.87 x ($1320 - $546) = $12.1m

Should see them pay another $5m - $6m off the debt for quarter.

[jeanesy] 30/9/2016 19:56

Sorry jbe81 but POG appears to be moving in the opposite direction again. At least we moved up a bit today. Hopefully not too long to wait for the drilling results !

[andrewsr] 30/9/2016 16:23

They'll kick it into the long grass along with every other financial problem.

[philo124] 30/9/2016 16:07

Think Deutsche will get resolved over the weekend.

[jbe81] 30/9/2016 09:13

Should be a good day for gold

[bumpa33] 30/9/2016 08:14

been a long time coming but Deutsche now surely on the brink...?

[celeritas] 29/9/2016 15:47

I'm sure the government want Chovdar running as soon as possible. Why would you want a potential gold mine, pardon the pun, wasting away with no-one producing from it, never mind the workers who he'll want paid up and with new jobs even if its just to keep them quiet.

AAZ have learnt a hell of a lot in removing the gold from different ores, that expertise could be transferred to Chovdar with the added benefit of a reporting company rather than what Chovdar had before.

[zhockey] 29/9/2016 15:39

But with those hirings that JB mentioned and the recent tenders, it would seem that Azergold are gearing up to run the mine independently.

I mean if you are going to outsource then HR and Medical would be top of the list.

[cannonfodd3r] 29/9/2016 14:56

I think you are reading too much into the difference between state ran and presidents company personally. They need it "producing" again so they can offload the unsold gold to recoup costs but where it goes from there is anyone's guess!

[jbravo2] 29/9/2016 14:17

I think you're a bit behind the times cannon.
The owners of AIMROC (presumed to have been largely the president and family) have had their money. AIMROC's assets were bought by AzerGold (a state company) using the states money for an undisclosed sum.
AzerGold now own Chovdar.
AAZ stated at the AGM they would be interested in helping with Chovdar but yes of course they wouldn't take on the debt to get access to it. That bit of course you're correct about. It was suggested perhaps we could help mine on a fee/oz or a % royalty. We would in effect be contractors on that model. Time will tell.
You're right on another point though, don't count on it til we're signed up as we tried to get in on Chovdar years ago and were passed over for AIMROC. Now we know much of what its ownership structure was thats no great surprise.

[zhockey] 29/9/2016 14:13

Significant = 100k or 1M oz?

[mattjos] 29/9/2016 14:01

Added research link to header:
Mineral resources of Azerbaijan.

Worth a read

[cannonfodd3r] 29/9/2016 13:51

There is no point factoring in Chovdar at this stage. Chovdar was run in such a dodgy way they never managed to sell the gold which they produced which I don't need to go back into. Focus has to be getting the mine back up and running legitimately so that they can sell this gold to recoup some of the set up costs. The setup costs were huge though and I'm almost certain that AIMC have spoken to azergold about taking it on but not agreed terms. There is no way they will take on the debt and I'm sure the president wants all his money back so it's at stake mate. I'd be more concerned if they did jump in on it!

What might come is running it for a management fee or a reduction of PSA, or additional resource which the govt hold and I'm sure AIMC WOULD LOVE TO GET HOLD OF.

The only certain is that Reza isn't stupid and the country is skint! Make of that what you will!

[mattjos] 29/9/2016 13:49

they said at the AGM that they were well on with data analysis from Bittibulag & felt it had significant potential.

[jbravo2] 29/9/2016 12:14

The silence from AzerGold is deafening.

The thing they will want above all else is to get Chovdar up and running again asap. Clearly that is how they can then pay to develop the rest of their properties. I'm surprised we haven't heard anything but am not unduly worried because of two things.


1. As zhockey says relying on anything from here is foolish. It's a reality only when RNS'ed. There is enough here to justify a higher price without anything more than is owned already.
2. There are signs of activity at AzerGold. AzerGold have been busy appointing. They have a head of legal, deputy of legal, head of procurement, head of HR, head of project management, head of geology, head of finance. All of these people started in July and August. It is entirely sensible that any negotiations can only happen in earnest once these people were appointed. So far no-one appointed that makes me think they are definitely going to run Chovdar themselves. It is of course a clear possibility but we employ most of the experts in the country, logic says they'd have to nick a fair few of our employees. I'm comfortable we're still in the game to be involved.

That meeting with the president just keeps cropping up in my mind. He asked for that meeting. He didn't want to know where dunkin' donuts was.

[zhockey] 29/9/2016 11:51

That has all been based on aimroc speculation, I have always had the view that we should believe this when we see an RNS.

Looking at the share price I would think there is zero pricing in of additional licences, and zero pricing in of exploration prospects.

[jbe81] 29/9/2016 11:42

IF we do get such a license I would expect a massive rise here, but a few people here have been convinced we would get such a license for over a year and nothing yet. Even without it AAZ is extremely undervalued

[celeritas] 29/9/2016 11:08

Good idea Mattjos, I don't think people have an idea of the scale.

[mattjos] 29/9/2016 11:04

have put into header satellite map link on Google maps to the Gedabek mine ... zoom in/out and you get a sense of just how small an area they are currently concentrated on relative to the size of the property

[celeritas] 29/9/2016 10:55

If aaz get a big licence then I expect the share price will go on a mad rush with stock very hard to get hold of.

[zhockey] 29/9/2016 10:45

Sorry JB I should pay more attention, only read the last paragraph in haste.

Another point, if AAZ are looking to build more mines and associated plant we could be looking at significant capex in the next few years, $100 to $200m? Therefore I see the psa potentially staying at 87% out to 2022 at least.

[celeritas] 29/9/2016 10:04

Yep, drilling must be close to completion for the year, I expect the data is already being worked on. Bear in mind this still only covers a fraction of the Gedabey.
Drilling isnt the only way to add to resources, hopefully we can gain one or more of those licenses. Plenty of news to come I'd say.