Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 23:25

Brasso, at 34p (seems a long time ago now) I sold the rest of my 19's and said it was going to close the gap @ 3.5p and would buy back then. (Yea, I missed 80p but, that was merely the opening Act)
I did just that & since that day, it has behaved perfectly. That was 3 years ago, approx.! It formed a basing pattern which virtually but, critically, did not quite erase most of the Stage 1 rise (very typical) & importantly did not form a new low.
Since then, it's behaved perfectly. Now that timescale likely does not suit most people but, it does me.
We have clearly moved beyond the basing stage now & beyond two critical long term chart down trend points of resistance. As each has cleared, the buying has intensified.
It's a fascinating process to observe, witnessing selling beget selling and then, after time, buying beget buying.
Am quite happy to hold and watch and wait and see if 240 is ultimately reached. By then the first two dividends will cover all the buy costs

[zhockey] 17/6/2016 23:07

Terropol,

The bookmakers odds are just too clear at this stage. This is sign of where people are putting their money and it's categorically IN

Either way I think the gold link is way way overblown. If the UK does vote out the hot money may trade up gold a bit but it will fall back to it's cycle soon enough.

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 22:43

For those kind of multiples it would require a mega surge in gold beyond $2000.

I am interested to know why they are so confident about the target of 73,000 - 77,000oz for 2016 given the poor Q1.

-- Gold production target for the year to 31 December 2016 ("FY 2016") is a total of between 73,000 ounces and 77,000 ounces (which includes approximately 4,000 ounces to 5,000 ounces of production from the flotation plant)

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:36

At 4p, this was simply a question of whether it would go up 30x or 60x. For me, either is still entirely possible

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:32

Brasso, I remain (perhaps) ultra-bullish on gold and believe it will hit over $4,000 in the next 2 years. So far (last 7 months) it has behaved perfectly to a long term, EW, Stage 3 advance.As long as that pattern remains intact & the shorter term chart reinforces that longer term target then, the patterns printed should take place

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 22:26

I thought those normally form over longer periods of time. Is a few days enough for the handle confirmation?

Not an expert but happy to hear your thoughts?

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:26

Still averaged under 5.9p for my holding and now willing to take it over 6p average

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:23

C&H Brasso.Anything now under 15p, I will continue to snap up

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 22:18

Have you seen something in the charts Matt?

[terropol] 17/6/2016 22:13

Zhockey, I think we will be voting out on the 23rd.
I have spoken to many people about it....most of them by a big margin said they are voting OUT.

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:12

I'll go for $1,373 by Thursday close

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 22:07

$1298 on my screen Matt.

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 22:00

Daily close over $1,293 on gold. Game on!

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 21:27

I had forgot about Resourceful!

I bet he is kicking himself now!

If he had any real shares to sell that is! :)

He claimed to have 1m shares and sold out at 7p. Would have been worth £150k this week.

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 21:25

I'll take $1,363 intra-day by market close Thursday Brasso

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 21:23

Broker must be sat on draft note right now, ready to release if we vote out.Wonder if Resourceful is happy with his money back at 5.5p here?

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 21:23

Matt

I have already taken $1350. You will have to guess something different!

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 21:20

$1,350 before our vote for sure

[mattjos] 17/6/2016 21:15

Gold chart looking like a lovely C&H ..... about to break

[zhockey] 17/6/2016 21:14

If the UK votes remain, which I'm 99.9% sure will be the case, then gold will sell off a bit on the algo trade but not massively IMO as I do not think this is really driving gold's undercurrent. The bookmakers still have remain at over 60% despite the recent drift and the property owning middle class will drive this one home. A remain win should not come as a surprise, indeed remain would be negative for the dollar, the way I see this playing out is very similar to the last couple of days.

The whole brexit / gold thing is completely overblown in my view and another fine example of cycles having to have "news" items associated with them.

[jbe81] 17/6/2016 21:12

Gold rebounded well, could see 20p next week

[brasso3] 17/6/2016 19:35

Yesterday the market clearly anticipated a delay to the EU referendum. Today that does not seem to be the case. I do not think a delay would help either side anyway.

If the vote remain wins then maybe gold will settle in the low $1200s for a while. Last year AAZs CFO said that AAZ was comfortable with gold down to $1000/ oz. Last year AAZs operating costs were just above $700/ oz. With the second Manat devaluation we should expect costs in 2016 to be closer to $600/ oz. Therefore AAZ will survive with gold as low as $900 IMO.

There is probably going to be enough cash by July/ August to fund an additional flotation plant without further debt.

[jeanesy] 17/6/2016 18:07

If we vote to stay in Europe then what will happen to POG ?

[2sporrans] 17/6/2016 17:04

Thanks zhockey

"How do you see the inflation/deflation landscape playing out?"

Back around 2009-11, I thought we'd end up with global inflation.
In part, because Governments afflicted with high Debt:GDP problems, seemed hell bent on inflating the debt away; no surprise there.
Also, I thought we would see the rise and rise of new consumers in the developing world, who would increasingly [out] compete with the developed nation ones, especially for scarce resources, be that commodities or capital.

What the last few years are telling me:
1. Just about everywhere is slowing; this seems to be continuing into 2017.
2. Surprising commodity surpluses emerging.
3. Technical progress still rapid but not [seemingly] augmenting labour productivity overall which has remained stagnant. [explains much of low pay increases for all but a few.]
4. No evidence of increasing inflation - beyond financial assets and remuneration/wealth for the top 1% - in the developed world and only a few 'hot spots' in developing [India biggest].

All in all, looks like Europe [incl. UK] is going rather Japanese with the US only a rung further up the growth/inflation ladder.
A lot of developing economies continue to slow up as commodity/derived-product surpluses ongoing and manufacturing capital moves to ever cheaper labour; e.g from E. Seaboard China -> West-Inland China, Vietnam, Bangladesh......or the cheap labour is migrating to the money.
China is pursuing transition to more services/consumer driven economy but will take over a decade to turn around.

Stagflation?
Well, I'm certainly with you on the stagnation part, at least as far as Europe-UK goes.
Inflation?
Not convinced we are going to see much any time soon.
Looks like ongoing household/company debt reduction + de-leverage and fiscal austerity are Trumping QE+ZIRP; plus commodity production still exhibits considerable over capacity.

Looking at what seems to be the biggest single commodity 'story' of the past year or so: The oil-gas glut.
Thing that surprised me most was the lack of growth 'dividend' in economies that are high energy consumers but low production.
Like Europe/Japan but also say manufacturing Asia e.g. Korea...Taiwan.
I expected this to be lagged by several months.....but where is it now?
And oil/gas prices have already recovered a fair bit from Q1 2016 lows.
Was there a growth dividend and it just got cancelled out by other deteriorating fundamentals?
Where does this leave us?