Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[celeritas] 31/5/2016 20:35

The state will take Chovdar back and in doing so tidy up loose ends for someone else to run it.
They could do with an experienced miner, maybe already in the country running the very same geology giving Chovdar every chance.
I wonder who's in mind.

[wrighty46] 31/5/2016 20:09

Bounced off 1200 very positive in the short term. GLA

[brasso3] 31/5/2016 19:45

Gold coming back a bit now at $1217.

[zhockey] 31/5/2016 17:45

Historically no news has meant no news, and not sure what the relevance to the weather is. I would like to see an agressive drill plan, circa 50000m. I imagine capex has been focused on production which is perfectly understandable, but at some point they will have to look at proving up future reserves for processing.

[jeanesy] 31/5/2016 17:29

I wrote to Bill Morgan asking why we have heard no news on exploration/drilling despite being told way back that news on this was hoped to be released before the snows came- last winter- so far i've heard nothing back. The company has been very quiet for a long time now - I wonder why??!!

[zhockey] 31/5/2016 16:50

I'm content with the PSA but would like AAZ to get drilling and add more reserves.

[catsick] 31/5/2016 16:38

I must say in all these news stories about the chovdar debacle its nice to see aaz held up as the paragon of virtue with an inferior deal and very transparent operation, I would hope at some point they can use all this to negotiate a better psa ...

[zhockey] 31/5/2016 11:39

Exactly, capital flows are the direct cause, follow the money! I expect the next gold leg up will coincide with an equities sell off. One could argue that equities should suffer when rates up as they have risen in a period of record low rates with debt funded buy-backs being an important factor as is search for yield. Gold however has suffered during a period of low rates, so I'm not buying the rates up, gold down paradigm.

What happened when rates went up in Dec? Equities tanked and gold went up 20%

[2sporrans] 31/5/2016 11:12

zhockey

Not disputing your technical contention; just believe other determinants also contribute substantially.
The simplest technical argument is one of reversion to mean trend; maybe what we'll see here and the [rising] 200 day ma support holds firm.

Another thought: Equities did not sell off on expectation of US Summer rate rise; they actually surged up, pretty much globally.
Change in investor sentiment [and more 'risk on'] or a pre-ordained eddy in a greater cycle?

Anyway, if AAZ price is chiselled down a tad further, expect I'll add.

[zhockey] 31/5/2016 10:56

2sporrans,

I am not sure it's that clear cut, gold was looking weak from the momment the poor nfp number failed to have an impact and that was sometime before a June rate hike was lauded.

Cycle theory suggests that news and fundementals are anecdotal to a preordained under current. I'm not an evangelical follower of this but it does seem appropriate IMO when looking at the current gold price behaviour.

[2sporrans] 31/5/2016 08:56

zhockey

Basically concur with your appraisal/prediction for POG, though think recent surge in US base rates summer rise expectations etc is more than noise; for sure it explains most of the concurrent rise in the $.
The 5 month rally is overwhelmingly driven by ETF buying after all and hence very US centric as well as prone to volatility.
For sure, lots of other reasons for ongoing correction.
E.g. Bankrupt Venezuelan Gov't fire selling of reserves is very significant.

Although physical buying been subdued at these prices [mainly Asian driven]it is still ongoing. From Chinese [40% of physical buying] perspective , maybe a pushback in the renimbi price from recent highs will kick in, especially if $<->CNY appreciation continues.
See here for gold prices in Renimbi and other currencies:

hxxp://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Whatever, with AAZs healthy [$500/oz] operational margins on gold, another $50-oz off the POG doesn't exactly knacker its business model, as you've said enough times.

[jimbowen30] 30/5/2016 20:37

Worth a listen on gold....

[jeanesy] 30/5/2016 09:17

POG falling again. It doesnt look like 1200 is going to hold. We are likely to get cheaper again here!

[mattjos] 28/5/2016 19:09

Another $2.5 off the debt .. EV to mkt cap still daft

[jbravo2] 28/5/2016 12:29

Nothing wrong with your sums except I expect April already exceeded 6000oz with the gold from flotation.
I'm afraid that won't be sitting in the bank though. We had to pay ATB the quarterly payment last week. That's $2.5m. Choice not involved there.
I'd expect to start to see some spending on the SAG mill and detox plant taking place soon too.

[brasso3] 28/5/2016 08:37

I expect May will yield around 6000oz gold at an average price of $1260.

6000oz x 0.87 x ($1260 - $700) = $2.92m profit.

April production made around $2.6m so AAZs bank balance must be looking healthy at present. At the end of H1 AAZ could have around $7m in the bank if they choose not to pay down any debt.

[zhockey] 27/5/2016 22:48

Jeanesy,

It should be no surprise that gold has and is falling. When it failed to break 1300 it was clear to me that there would be a consolidation and the 200 SMA is a likely target. We might see 1400 this year but to think gold will just go up and up without consolidation is pure moonshine.

All the association with fed raising rates is just noise, gold naturally wants to correct and will do so whatever the news. I think we might see a bounce here back to 1250 but be prepared for it to got sub 1200 in June.

I agree with you on exploration, it would be nice to have a full summary of progress and what the strategy is going forward.

[jeanesy] 27/5/2016 21:41

We were told along time ago that there was going to be the possibility of re-negotiating the loan - so why have we not heard anything? The last time i raised this i was told this would not happen because of the fall of the manat. Well the manat has been relatively strong recently and has moved fro 1.6 to 1.48 so perhaps there will be more reason now to try and re-negotiate it . Also i was disappointed to hear nothing about new targets or drilling news as again we were promised news on that too before the snows came- well its a long time since then!! Some news here is well over due !!

[celeritas] 27/5/2016 20:40

Gold is all over the place. It went from 1200 to 1300 then back again. It could go to 1100 or back to 1300 or even 1400.
All depends on your timescale.
Aazis seriously undervalued anyway, had it been 30p I'd be thinking maybe sell but at 10p plus the possibility of a major deal.

[jeanesy] 27/5/2016 19:37

The fall from grace of the POG has been pretty dramatic. Every day the price has fallen recently. 1200 looks likely to be broken early next week. So much for those who said we would be breaking 1400 ! We have fallen $100 dollars in no time at all- the next stop is. Just when it looked like things here were looking up too !!

[bleepy] 27/5/2016 13:18

Reza and aaz must have been royally miffed when the ownership,terms and conditions attached to Chovdar were revealed.

The preferential psa, tax and labour laws given to Chovdar should at the very least provide grounds for the renegotiation of aaz's terms and conditions.

The Azer govn must be seen to be squeaky clean going forward. It must also reflect the favourable terms behind closed doors should apply to all,therefore, a compromise seen to address the difference would be expected.

[ferries5] 27/5/2016 12:02

Some sort of political deal has been done regarding the Aimroc assets. Not sure with whom, the female journalist who worked for the anti corruption newspaper that printed the story about who actually owned them has just been released from prison and given probation instead.

[bleepy] 27/5/2016 11:22

Consolidation/manipulation always a means toward an end.

The irony being the satisfied and content become greedier with no end or moral in sight.

Justice and balance will out and the scales are favouring China to redress.

Always leave some for others as often their need is far greater than yours.