Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 15/1/2016 18:47

Mattjos your post 1095. You suggest $39M gross profit. Have you knocked off the Govt's share of the gold, and the sustaining capex?

[brasso3] 15/1/2016 18:45

"2016 costs will be significantly below $736"

"In Q4 some contribution from the flotation plant"

"In 2016 with the flotation plant coming onstream significant cash cost reduction"

"$9 - $10m in capital expenditure in 2015"

"comfortable with servicing that level of debt"

"looking at re-financing at a lower interest rate"

[mattjos] 15/1/2016 18:35

There was a HELLUVA lot more intimated at and not revealed in the interview than the casual observer might take in.It's hard not to warm to Bill. He projects a conservative yet, quietly confident persona that is sure of his numbers.Reza & the company have done really very well to attract and recruit him .. & that goes for many of their key personnel.That's a reflection on Reza himself, in my opinion ... I tip my hat to the chap. Much harder to achieve than most people might believe.I listened to that and it merely reinforced my belief there is something big afoot that is not yet in the domain of the market

[brasso3] 15/1/2016 18:35

£250 - £500m market cap.
£50m+ revenue.
P/E 10.
2 - 5m oz gold reserves

If you take away the debt and increase the reserves AAZ would be in that region.

[on target] 15/1/2016 18:22

Definition of mid-tier gold producer anyone?

[wrighty46] 15/1/2016 17:02

Yup one of the best bb's on advfn, cheers all.

[philo124] 15/1/2016 16:20

Great posts , thanks a lot.

[mattjos] 15/1/2016 16:13

header updated with the new production chart & link. Thanks Brasso

[brasso3] 15/1/2016 16:13

If they managed 18,000oz silver for a quarter with the flotation plant starting up with teething problems and only reaching 80% of capcity I would expect more. I think 25,000oz per quarter could be possible going forward.

[mattjos] 15/1/2016 16:05

Going back to my post 5/10/15:

Mattjos - 03 Oct 2015 - 23:43:50 - 264 of 1095
H1 produced 35,938oz Au, spread over 181 days = 198oz/day ave.

From the HY results: Production 1/1/15 - 13/9/15 was 50,779oz
50,779-35,938 = 14,841oz produced 1/7/15 to 13/9/15
That also equates to 198oz Au per day over the 75 days so, that seems a reasonable average daily run rate to presume for the remainder of the year.

14/9/15 to 31/12/15 = 109 days
109 x 198oz = 21,582oz
50,779 + 21,582 = 72,361oz for the FY

Pro-Rata, for Q3 it looks like it will be circa: ((14,841+(17*198))= 18,207oz

So, I don't think they will quite beat their previous record as flotation is not due to start until after the Q end.

Yes, I appreciate the Heaps will drop off once the weather closes in thus affecting Q4 but, we'll have the Flotation plant to help offset that.
It seems they first plan to run the flotation plant solely on the tailings from the Agitation plant. This should increase the overall Au recovery rate and significantly increase the Cu production. By starting it up this way they can ensure the process is working correctly without incurring any additional costs of having to run the grinding mills.
At what point they start processing the stacked sulphide ore remains to be confirmed .. presumably once they are happy with the performance of the circuit from the conditioning tanks onwards.

Flotation is supposed to help them increase the recovery rate of the Au & also the Cu.
They have said they are targeting an additional 5,000oz from the flotation for the FY. Spread over the 92 days of 1/10/15 to 31/12/15 that would be 54oz per day .. a 27% increase giving ave. daily combined output of 198+54=252oz / day.

If that is achieved & can be maintained across a FY, that gives a FY production target of 91,980oz Au with Copper concentrate in the region of 5,500t

Knock off 10% for holidays and down time & FY 2016 should be 83koz Au + 5,000t Cu concentrate.

83,000 * (1,100-750) = $29m
5,000 * $2,000 = $10m

(There is one factor though that we cannot yet predict ... if Flotation increases recoveries of Au & Cu from the Agitation Plant then, to what extent will it reduce output from the SART plant? The SART plant did run before Agitation was introduced so I assume it still has a role to play using the liquids from the Heap leaches but, from memory, I believe the SART plant had a capacity greater than the heap leaches alone could supply).

I've made no allowance for the silver and (we believe) future Zn and/or Mo output or, for any exploration / expansion upside.

Although this is operational in an emerging market, it has a natural currency hedge with local input costs in AZN and output in US$.
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FY15 came in 72,032 oz ... .so they fractionally missed my projection by 329oz - probably due to temperatures in Q4.

It looks safe to assume average 200oz Au per day average for FY16, giving 73,000oz Au this year as a minimum.

The big growth looks to be coming from the Copper & Silver, if Q4 is anything to go by. They could be doing 70k+oz in Silver this year.

Debt should drop by 25-30% this year .. possibly more, subject to what impact the Manat devaluation will have.

[cyberbub] 15/1/2016 09:50

Well I am trying to be conservative, I also think it could be higher, possibly substantially higher, but there is an undeniable risk over metal prices...

[philo124] 15/1/2016 09:46

Thought slightly higher, thanks. Hope they make paying down debt their priority this year, as well as output maximisation. A 10% rise in commodity prices wouldn't go amiss either.

[cyberbub] 15/1/2016 09:03

$10-11M after govt share, sustaining capital etc

[philo124] 15/1/2016 08:29

Could we have the price of silver and copper charts in the header please.
The fall in the local currency vs the dollar is equivalent to an increase in the price of metals produced.

Anyone like to have a stab at 2016 free cash flow to AAZ net of govt share?

[cyberbub] 15/1/2016 08:21

It all sounds very positive but we are still on a p/e of less than 1... sigh...

[brasso3] 15/1/2016 04:17

I was out on business yesterday so could not post.

-The silver production a real surprise and I was not expecting this.
-Copper should now come in at 400 - 500t per quarter.
-Gold steady now at 16,000 - 18,000oz per quarter.
-AAZ are no longer susceptible to the seasonal declines due to multi processing.
-Reza and Amsterdam bank happy to roll over payments as they see we are out of the woods.
-Really high gold content from Gadir.
-2015 Q4 was our largest combined production (Au, Ag, Cu) on record!
-The Manat devaluation still missed by most outside of this thread.

[brasso3] 15/1/2016 04:12

Matt

You have mail:-

[bleepy] 14/1/2016 23:24

Thanks Mattjos , with the floatation plant ramped upto 75% - 80% of design capacity already, zinc processing must be on the agenda near term.

Vaziri as usual, under promising and over delivering. share price won't be languishing at these levels for much longer.

Dividend this year hmm!!

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 22:44

dont forget the other flotation plant is waiting there for the zinc bleepy. should be opportunity to start that up later this year. Can they re-process the flotation tailings for this?

[bleepy] 14/1/2016 22:42

Mention of zinc impurities, how much and can it be streamed profitably.

[mattjos] 14/1/2016 22:34

bleepy ..yes, the silver improvement really caught my eye yet, share price Angel commented on the copper. Seems odd.
I guess no one but the company quite knows how the combined Agitation with Ammonia & then Flotation secondary processing of these tailings is working out.
There will inevitably be an iterative improvement process as they fine tune it.

Next week will give us the Jan production figures & (very good point Terropol) maybe they will simply slide in the implications of the Manat devaluation rather then crow about it.

[zhockey] 14/1/2016 22:32

ILTL, yes.

[terropol] 14/1/2016 22:13

OnTarget, AAZ is the AZ government partner....I am sure the government would rather keep the manat devaluation off the headlines... ( just my idea)

The more time this shareprice keeps low, the more time we have to add to our position...

When we push up we will all say "Why did we not buy more"

We need gold price to keep up...then we are on a no looser!