Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 15:01

if there is an interested buyer for Bashirov's stock the MM's will want to keep it down to do the deal but, I'd suggest they'll need to do in the next 3 weeks

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 14:56

2M-odd buys (albeit perhaps a few disguised sells in there), and then the MMS drop it 10% on barely 100k in sells? LOL

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 14:50

It was December 2013 when the announced drill results from Gadiz (Gedabek North) that advised:
"..... The difference mineralogically includes zinc rich sphalarite in the gold enriched zones...."

So, maybe the 12 smaller flotation cells that "are available to produce Zinc & other metals" will be used to process ore from Gedabek North and extract the Zinc + anything else they find.
It's a useful addition to have on site & should help them gain ever greater understanding of which process methodology to apply to differing ore types .. and always the opportunity to sell the resultant metal

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 14:07

If the company's cash costs per oz should be dropping steadily (due to both technical and exchange rate reasons), I wonder whether it's worth them considering partially hedging the gold price? Do any of the long term holders here know whether the company has considered that?

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 13:50

That should be "shoo-in" Mattjos ;-)I think the share price is slightly stuck at the overhead down-line on the peaks from March time. I am not bothered - if the company continues to produce oodles of gold, at a steadily decreasing cost per oz, and ramps up the paydown of its debts, the share price will take care of itself IMO...GLA NAI

[captain_crash_and_burn] 22/9/2015 13:10

Great update, very surprised we haven't had more of a lift off as we have basically been given our whole christmas list really. Perhaps Mr B is selling in to the rise, can't wait till he is done. Market eniment towards miners can't be helping us today as well though I suppose.

Hopefully we will start to see a steady rise from now on, with the Q3 prod figures to give us the next news driven rise again in around a month. Reckon if we can squeeze out 18-20k oz's in Q3 the market should react favourably.

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 13:05

Bashirov must be down to his last 2m now. Let's hope that Cantor try to drop it down one day to allow an Insti to take the balance off him in one lot. Imagine they'd restrict it online but, you never know .. might get lucky on a fill.

There will be plenty here now waiting for a re-trace in the price to get aboard but, most of Bashirov's stock has gone to some fairly committed long term investors in the company (which I consider my self to be just one) & I'm not convinced any weakness at this level now will persist for long ... unless, as per above, it's an MM arranged shoe-in for an Institutional investor

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 12:56

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 12:56

Woo hoo - my 150k buy has finally shown up, and taken us over the 2M volume for the day! No applause necessary LOLI expect to see a 2M+ sell later today, or possibly delayed until tomorrow.NAI

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 12:53

I'll get on now and do the new thread this weekend :-)

[jbravo2] 22/9/2015 12:51

Absolutely matt, and for those who think they read that kind of thing all the time and are looking in for the first time cos we're up the leaderboard, here is a small recap as to why AAZ is different, IMO.


Current mkt cap c£6m
Only 112m shares in issue. Have NEVER issued more shares for cash. Chairman owns 30% and lends money to company if necessary instead. He wants to keep number of shares down. Will be easy to pay relatively large dividend per share relative to price today on this structure. 1p dividend is only £1.1m.

Revenue for 2015 will be c$85m. That's right. This isn't another pie in the sky exploration company. We produce. 70-75k oz this year. Will be top end of range or over if continue year so far.

Current cash costs under $750/oz.
Cash costs to fall further as the new flotation plant being commissioned.
Three plants will then be operational to process polymetallic nature of the ore.
New Gadir mine now producing ore. Roughly 9g/t.
Copper to be 2000t this year and over 3000t next year. Gold 80,000oz next year at least.
Profit for 2015 should be $15m. Plenty more than that in 2016.

Ordubad exploration continues. Heap leach to be the cheap option there.

Rock on!

[jbe81] 22/9/2015 12:33

Sp should be at least 10-15p given current market conditions and would still be cheap, current share price is just down to Bashirov selling. Q3 results in 3 weeks or so, should get back to a vaguely sensible valuation by then.

[yorgi] 22/9/2015 12:31

I posted pretty much the same Mattjos a few minutes ago, it could be double the present share price and it would still be cheap. The BOD have turned things around so unless something unforeseen cropped up then the only way for the share price from here is up in my view.

[mattjos] 22/9/2015 12:27

still stupidly, stupidly cheap despite the rise today.

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 12:13

Fibmeister I don't plan selling until any until the share price has 2 digits, and even then it might need to actually start with a 2... If you see what I mean...My 150k buy still hasn't shown up, naughty MMS... LOL

[fibmeister] 22/9/2015 12:09

fair point JB. doesnt change overall picture - strong dollar weak commodities weak EM currencies. only commodity or at least one of the very few which has been resilient in the light of strong dollar is gold.

re inflation, yes; look at brazil a prime example. however their economy is in a big mess (i.e. not just commodity-dependant but also corruption and lack of strategic planning at the top plus pile loads of debt).

for AAZ inflation not much of an impact given revenue is in $USD. high inflation (10%+) though might start impacting as workers seek higher wages given they spend portion of their earnings on imported goods.

in d meantime enjoy d rise!

@cyber - do not sell for a quick 5-10% now coz we will go back down to 5p :)))

[jbravo2] 22/9/2015 11:55

Oh and I just meant to post about the manat.
Fib, you were talking about the manat remaining weak. The manat is a fixed currency. It doesn't float freely. The only way it will gain enough strength to be revalued higher again is for oil to go up. Azerbaijan budget is so reliant on oil and all the talk is of another devaluation (being strongly denied) rather than an appreciation vs dollar. Good for AAZ but guess it'll lead to inflation in the country at some point.

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 11:53

Believe it or not I have taken one more buy of 150k at 5.45p... going to sit back now and let it roll... hopefully we will all have a happy Xmas...GLA NAI

[yorgi] 22/9/2015 11:52

If he is below 3m shares Brasso then that will not take much clearing as todays news gradually is taken on board by a wider number of investors.

[brasso3] 22/9/2015 11:46

Looks like that last 100k trade was the straw that broke the camels back! :)

We know Bashirov is below 3% (3m shares) so a nice 3m volume day should help clear him out.

[yorgi] 22/9/2015 11:43

If AAZ was sitting at 10p in the order of £11m market cap it would still be cheap.

[yorgi] 22/9/2015 11:34

Clear turnaround precisely Cyberbub :-)

If one takes a view of six months plus in my view we will look back at this as being the turning point where recovery begins and we have now seen the bottom.

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 11:29

Meanwhile we are heading for a 3-year high on volume today...Off to look back at some more posts now. Thanks for all your help fellers, this seems like a good board...

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 11:26

Well IMO the market looks forward... The results today show a clear turnaround, and once Bashirov is out then we can hope that next year's output/debt reduction will start to be priced in... especially if good progress is maintained over the next quarter...Key thing for me is that the gold price stays reasonably firm...NAI

[fibmeister] 22/9/2015 11:21

read through the RNS again
y-o-y costs comparisons look good.
$USD expected to remain relatively strong, so expect EM currencies incl. Azeri manat to remain weak - good for AAZ cost base. obviously strong dollar limits gold price but hey ho you cannot win all fronts i guess.

as Brasso just mentioned decent debt reduction over the coming quarters looks a real possibility. fingers crossed for no glitches.

seems prod'n numbers for Q3 will be slightly less than Q2 but still over 18k ounces.... not bad at all.

anyways i see share price reacting gradually to these developments - given current macro siutation & negative industry sentiment i still see 8p to be achievable within next few months.