Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 19:58

Celeretas, nothing to do with a big seller, the company have disappointed time and time again and spent a fortune on an AL plant that cannot economically deal with Sulphide ore.

They are cheap as they need to find a lot more Oxide ore and the market is sceptical.

[mattjos] 08/6/2017 15:46

only 7.5k online now Cel.

lefrene .. welcome. I have tried to put as much as I can into the thread header but, if you do have any questions at all, please fire away. This has always been a terrific thread and all investors who frequent it have always been generous and willing to share anything/everything they know / have observed about the company & its management.

The seller (Bashirov) that beat the price down to 4p was a forced seller at the time

[celeritas] 08/6/2017 15:24

Hi lef, nice to see you here. The company was beaten down by a large seller which is why you are seeing it so cheap but with a bit of luck it will be recognised at some point hopefully very soon as a Jorc resource statement cant be far off. Plus theres always the chance of bagging a new licence from the old Aimroc assets.
Its aim so still a risk as all aim co's are.


It can be quite illiquid at times like today when you can only buy 15k online but generally unless you are buying/selling 100k at a time you'll be fine.

[lefrene] 08/6/2017 15:08

Cel, this is a very differently run company to AL's Moni, I don't think I have ever seen such a comprehensive set of accounts ever. The only thing I'm not sure of is the exact nature of the deal they have with the Azeri government. Corporation tax at 32% and a separate $10.2 million set aside. But other than that it looks like all the grief and pain have been gone through here, in production, decent profits, paying down debts and nice fat tax deductible losses still to be used ($19 million). Should be a case of onwards and upwards.

[celeritas] 08/6/2017 14:14

Same here, 15k available. Looks like I might have to move my limit buy.

[mattjos] 08/6/2017 13:09

stock tightening up now after several days of 50k available online at 17.4

Cant get quoted for anything larger than 15k online but, am bid near mid-price for 50k to sell

[el_duderino_7885] 08/6/2017 12:09

No gold has to finish outside its downtrend from 2011 on the monthly 2 months in a row to confirm the new uptrend.

It's well on the way to doing this. I've been saying for some time it would likely top around $1,300 and then dip back down to retest the downtrend from 2011, kiss it one more time before the next move up.

Dollar is also well due a bounce. Massively oversold short term.

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 11:13

Well that's the long term resistance, if that breaks I think we'll see 8p tested.

[mattjos] 08/6/2017 10:34

yes, that's a fair point zhockey .. however my last EW chart for this nailed the recent 15.5 low for W2 & between 15.0 & 15.5 was the level at which I Bed'n'ISA'd this year's full allowance so, it is not always retrospective.

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 10:27

I'm still waiting for the $4000 Matt predicted.

The only accurate EW analysis I have seen is one that was drawn retrospectively:)

[jbravo2] 08/6/2017 10:17

Of course it does to you zh.
You're seeking confirmation just as matt does for his $1500.
I said in Jan that I thought we'd have 1200-1250 this year. So far so good even if its not a very brave or exciting prediction.

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 10:04

Matt, looks to me like gold could have double topped. Has to convincingly break through 1300 to confirm an a new uptrend.

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 10:01

Redtrend, April was a long time ago, maybe you could read my posts since then.

[mattjos] 08/6/2017 10:00

I have faith in the company management & do not believe that they would have halted mining in this fashion and moved all the plant to Ugur unless it was, as they have repeatedly said, a 'significant' new resource.
Reza has $3.8m of his own cash on the line here, in addition to his shareholding ... with that in mind, I refuse to accept that he & Stephen Westhead are acting in some unplanned or irrational fashion by moving to Ugur with such vigour.

Gold is trending higher than the $1,200 price point assumed by the company in its forward projections. Later this year we should be producing at over $1,300/oz and all this nonsense will be behind us.

The AGM will be interesting this year!

[mattjos] 08/6/2017 09:51

The Big CAPEX on the plant is mainly behind us at this stage.

I don't see the AL plant as in any way a waste ... quite the opposite.

Heap, Agitation, Flotation & SART + a small, as yet unused additional flotation facility ... we've got all that we need to exploit the varying ore types in the vicinity of Gedabek & we've now got experience of running them all in varying combinations.

The stage is exceptionally well set, I would suggest

[jbravo2] 08/6/2017 09:41

@zh
Yes you're right $20m may be slightly optimistic. I've got $22m as most likely but time will tell.
True we've got lower gold production, probably a roughly similar gold price, but we've got higher copper production, a higher copper price, the electricity plant cost reduction and probably a better exchange rate $/manat for the yearly average.

I also partially agree with you re the plant.
Yes the AL plant has been expensive for its apparent benefits thus far. Of course it may be extremely advantageous in the future depending on the resources found and it has also yet to be demonstrated that we really need a $50m flotation plant as well.
The benefit of the millions of tonnes of rock heading to the tailings rather than needing heap leach space is probably one of the main advantages.

[redtrend] 08/6/2017 09:36

Not sure how you can say $20m debt is bit optimistic when you were stating $32m profit this year in only mid April... That would imply no debt at all.


zhockey - 18 Apr 2017 - 10:13:18

Let's not forget that 55k oz should yield about $32M in profit this year. So we could see 80k next year with very little debt left. That would be 32p free cash flow per share, 10p dividend?

[bleepy] 08/6/2017 09:18

Processing operations

To increase gold recoveries and production, in 2013 the Group constructed an agitation leaching plant. Compared to heap leaching, agitation leaching can deliver higher recoveries of gold without long leaching cycles. Heap leach pads also require considerable space for their construction and due to the topology of the Gedabek site, this was a constraint.

The capacity of the agitation leaching plant was increased in 2016 by the installation of a second semi-autogenous grinding (“SAG”) mill.

The ore at Gedabek is polymetallic containing significant amounts of copper. Initially, the SART processing plant was constructed to recover some of the copper as a copper and precious metal concentrate. However, to further exploit the high copper content of the Group’s ore reserves, the Group constructed a floatation plant whose function is primarily to produce copper concentrate containing gold and silver as by-products. The floatation plant commenced production in November 2015. It operated throughout 2016 processing tailings from the agitation leaching plant.

In February 2017, it was reconfigured to treat freshly crushed and milled ore.
The floatation plant has the flexibilty to be configured for various methods
of operation. It is able to process the Company’s stockpiles of high copper content ore. It can also treat ore feed to, or tailings from, the agitation leaching plant. In such configurations, the plant will be an integral part of the agitation leaching plant.

[zhockey] 08/6/2017 08:51

JBravo, $20M debt by year end, that's a bit optimistic?

Oh where they would be now if they spent $50M on a sulphide plant rather than the AL white elephant.

[mattjos] 07/6/2017 22:31

we have our own competent person on-board now so, should not have to wait as long as we have had to in the past for Gedabek JORC.

I actually think the stacked sulphide ore gives us a greater sense of predictability for the foreseeable future ... we know its make-up (that's why its been stacked in the first instance) & we have optimised the plant to process this ore for the next 6 months.

This should give us a relatively stable and predictable production profile whilst we bring on Ugur and more objectively plan extraction at Gadir and Gedabek.

Personally, I think this is THE most exciting period in the history of the company.

I believe that end 2018 and we might need to expand the plant again to punch through the 100koz equivalent threshold. That will be a nice problem to deal with.

Ugur JORC first though ... let's see if they can add more flesh to the bones by the AGM

[brasso3] 07/6/2017 21:30

The problem for most investors is that the predictable part of AAZs business has been temporarily taken away. We can no longer rely on the production figures of 2016 and the quoted AISC to look forward into 2017. We need some good exploration results in the next few months which will not impact production/ revenues until early 2018.

[jeanesy] 07/6/2017 19:47

Exactly unionhall, the above posts say it all.. when.. when.. once ..it is not a forgone conclusion and price will only rise if more gold is found etc. The market here says it all .. confidence is low and will be until such time the company produces some news to get excited about.. in the mean time i fully expect this to drift lower still if the pog weakens.

[unionhall] 07/6/2017 17:57

Only if those explorations return very good results.

This is not a foregone conclusion.

[bleepy] 07/6/2017 16:43

Once the new tunnelling and further exploration of Gadir is complete even more will get it.

Once the further exploration of Gedabek open is complete more still will get it.

Once results of exploration at Bittibulag is announced more will get it.

Once the resource/reserve estimates are known for the above then everybody will get it.

Combine with previous post the present share price is ridiculously low as mentioned earlier.

[jbravo2] 07/6/2017 12:31

We're at the same point as last year.
The company is massively undervalued but confidence is low.

Last year it was due to a concern that the company might not even survive magnified by a forced seller who had driven the share price to all time lows.

This year the doubts are about the long term future of the company. Does it have enough gold? Is it good enough quality? How much copper is there? What price can they get it all produced for?

Once the H1 results are in a few more people will get it.
Once they realise despite the low Q1 production all the debts continued to be paid on time a few more people will get it.
Once the AGM is cleared a few more will get it.
Once the resource is produced for Ugur a few more on top of all those will get it.
Once the reserve is produced a few more.
Once the results for Q3 are in a few more.
etc etc.

This won't stay valued at under £20m when its going to produce $80m in revenue this year.
When its debt is going to be $20m by year end.
When its assets are over $80m.
When it has the plant it does. In the place it does. With resources all around.

All is very well set for the future.