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[tpaulbeaumont] 14/8/2012 08:39

hmmm, thing is theres hardly anyone in Australia and wages are huge relative to US/peripheral europe

[tpaulbeaumont] 13/8/2012 09:01

The financial sectors market caps show that [...] Australian banks are larger than Eurozone banks.

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/8/2012 10:21

Dr Doom warns of tough times ahead


NOTED international contrarian Marc Faber has turned his gaze of doom on Australia, warning of tough times ahead for the nation as China slows faster than expected and the domestic "housing bubble" bursts.

In an exclusive interview with The Australian, Dr Faber -- the editor and publisher of the The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report -- warned that a downturn in commodity prices as China slowed would have damaging consequences for the mining industry and economy of Australia.

The proposed mining developments in Australia that were not postponed could struggle to be profitable as metals prices eased, Dr Faber warned.

"The problem with Australia is not only exports to China and the weakening prices for industrial commodities, it is also a lot of household debt and a housing market that is essentially very expensive," Dr Faber said.

Weakness creeping into the resources industry could affect demand for property, deflating real estate prices.

"Frequently a bubble pops without a catalyst, it just pops because the demand weakens, and the demand weakens when assets are overpriced because of affordability reasons," he said. "I think in some regions of Australia there is plenty of supply and diminished demand. I think that this alone will lead to lower (housing) prices."...

[tpaulbeaumont] 09/8/2012 09:28

China
CPI y/y 1.8% V 1.7% exp
PPI y/y -2.9% V -2.5% exp

Barclays immediately cuts China 2012 GDP growth forecast from 8.1% to 7.9%, while HSBC insists on 8.5-9.0%

[tpaulbeaumont] 05/8/2012 10:32

BoP until you drop
For the first time since 1998 more money leaves China than enters it
Aug 4th 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

[tpaulbeaumont] 02/8/2012 09:20

NB: The chinese love pig, they consume half the worlds pork

[tpaulbeaumont] 02/8/2012 09:15

A peak may be in sight for commodity prices
Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition



[...]
More factors suggest that metal intensity might waver, according to UBS. Returns on fixed capital formation-buildings, roads, other infrastructure, plant and machinery-are waning. The bank says that a frenzy of investment after the credit crisis of 2008, when total bank loans doubled in three years, led to seven years of infrastructure spending in a mere three years. Many of the projects were either premature (subway stations standing lonely in bleak landscapes waiting for a town to arrive), not terribly productive (motorways in the hinterland rather than between the biggest cities) or not needed at all.

That investment splurge means that infrastructure spending may have peaked already. The upshot, according to Julien Garran of UBS, is that supply has now caught up with demand for coal and nickel, and will do so for copper next year and iron ore in 2014. Mining companies have spent heavily trying to adjust to China's hunger for minerals. Citigroup says they are poised for more capital expenditure in the next five years than in the past 20 years combined. But if it is true that China's appetite is less ravenous than expected, then investment will fall too. Big projects due to start in the next three years are locked in, but beyond that all are up for grabs.

Even if the supercycle is drawing to an end, China will still be a huge market with enormous influence over prices. But the sheen may be fading, as on a lump of steel left out in the rain.

[buywell2] 30/7/2012 11:02

For anyone thinking of buying in Australia or NZ .... wait 4 years min

A property bubble has occured in both countries and even worse in China ... In Oz owning 2 or 3 homes for many families is now the norm .... thus the rental market is very competitive (cheap) if you know where to look and bargain hard.

The property bubble in the USA has popped , property prices have dropped circa 50% in Florida since 2006 , however in Oz the picture is different

Long term real house prices





Real House Price Indices from 1986-Now






A cold wind is likely to blow soon however as China slows and India also ... the bubble in housing could pop soon , the bubble in the UK always followed the USA by circa 1 year , only the commodity trade kept OZ apart , the commodity boom is turning into a bust , from the above you can deduce a 35% drop is coming and the $ASD and $NZ retrench V the $USD .... take care


Here Japan crash is included the AUS drop has only just started

[corrientes] 05/7/2012 18:35

I'm going to Oz next February. Will the $A strengthen even more against £,and I suppose that depends on the China position, where conflicting views abound ? Problem is, can you trust any numbers coming out of China, not that we should feel superior in any way about our own economic data.