Amstrad Share Discussion Threads

[brando69] 25/6/2007 16:50

i am tempted now, but with it edging down through 3 year lows, i'd want to see how it reacts first. only a fool or a desperado would try to call the bottom

[weatherman] 25/6/2007 16:47

The shorters are exploiting the lack of news flow - it would be good if AMT provided the market with regular updates so that shorters were denied these opportunities.

Last time AMT went below 120p, within a few months it was over 200p. With some good news the same will happen.

[brando69] 25/6/2007 16:43

investors who bought in in high 100s or 200s thinking this was a safe isa investment must be raging.

meanwhile sir alan and his new protege plan to build the most expensive office in london.

talk about fiddling when rome burns

LOL

[guru11] 25/6/2007 16:07

Amstrad made eps of 9p at the half way stage and according to Digitlook full year eps are forecasted at 12.53p making a pe of 9.5. Next year Digitlook forecasts eps of 17.51 giving a pe on 119p of 6.8, not much different to Alba.
We've seen almost way trading of late, and it looks like it could go lower in the short term, until we get an announcement in which case the price could go up just as fast. The worry is although it has cash and is making a profit, is the future products, but then Sir Alan has always come up with what the market wanted in the past. He is obviously no fool, and I can see him delivering again, but a lot does hang on the association with Sky, who could find someone else.

[darrin1471] 25/6/2007 16:00

16.8% return would take 6 years to return the £68m.
Unfortunately the Hong Kong Amstrad International business only sells cd and cassette players. The emailer revenues are falling rapidly.
Both businesses will be dead ducks within five years unless they reinvent themselves as new businesses.
That leaves the one trick pony stb business. This business could continue to earn loads of money or would be valuable to a company like Cisco S/A who are under represented in satellite stbs.

There is no doubt that Sir Alan has achieved excellent stb gross margins in the past but there is no evidence that he has tried to expand this stb business outside News Corp. The only place he could sell his existing stbs would be to News Corp operations in Australia and New Zealand. Any other satellite or cable stb would require significant R&D investment.
I have speculated before that AMT may be making a Hybrid/Freeview MPEG4 stb for Sky. This sort of stb would have a wide market across Europe but would also require a long term strategy and investment.

[brando69] 25/6/2007 15:57

and there we have it: 118....hmmmm

[spob] 25/6/2007 15:22

Apprentice sets out to smash rental record

Hugo Duncan, Evening Standard
19 June 2007, 9:06am

Sir Alan Sugar and his new 'apprentice' Simon Ambrose are planning to build London's most expensive office.


The entrepreneur is weighing up a £100m-plus bid for the north-east corner of St James's Square through Amsprop, the property firm Ambrose joined last week after Sugar named him winner of hit TV show The Apprentice.


It is one of the most exclusive areas in London and a favourite of cash-rich hedge funds, investment boutiques and private-equity houses as they vie for the most prestigious offices in the capital.


After the site is redeveloped, it is expected to smash the world record for commercial rent set at nearby 77 Grosvenor Street, where Icelandic investment bank FL Group recently agreed to pay a staggering £120 per square foot.


Property sources said its location makes it one of the most important office developments for years. It will challenge other new West End sites including a seven-storey development overlooking Hyde Park at 49 Park Lane, next to the Dorchester Hotel.


Sugar, who has a fortune of about £830m, is among the front-runners in the race for the 80,000 sq ft St James's Square site, having looked around last week, but will face stiff competition from British and foreign investors.


He made his name selling electrical goods through Amstrad, but most of his wealth now comes from Amsprop. The firm, run by his son Daniel, already owns a number of properties in Mayfair and is also thought to be interested in Tiffany & Co's landmark jewellery store at 25 Old Bond Street.

Hermes Real Estate put the St James's Square site up for sale earlier this month. Planning consent has been granted to knock down and replace 8 St James's Square and 7 Apple Tree Yardwhile Grade II-listed 7 St James's Square will be refurbished.


Prices in Mayfair and St James's have rocketed in recent years amid booming demand and tight supply. Planning laws and space constraints limit the number of new buildings coming on to the market, which has helped make London the most expensive city in the world to do business, with rentals in the capital far outstripping what firms pay in New York or Tokyo.


Sugar chose Ambrose, 27, to join Amsprop in the final of The Apprentice last week. He beat favourite Kristina Grimes and will now train as a surveyor while working for the firm. Among his tasks will be a hotel and golf development near Stansted airport.

[jtcod] 25/6/2007 15:17

darrin
I am convinced the only reason they haven't is because they chose not to drop their margins. In this respect his business is not unlike mine. I won't compromise on margins and would rather walk away from business than not get what I consider a fair return for my labour. That's always been my business philisophy and I suspect it is his too.

If he lost his main contracts altogether then there is always that option.

[jtcod] 25/6/2007 15:13

I think a £68m invested at 16.8% return and possibly more as HD takes off, I'd say that was a pretty good pension investment if he no-longer had to worry about LSE requirements and could take a back seat with his son running things. Don't forget that a private AMT may well make up to £1m pa more when releived of it's city costs.

[brando69] 25/6/2007 15:11

he could always rebrand the company as a 24/7 reality tv vehicle... a corporate version of big brother.

[darrin1471] 25/6/2007 15:09

JTC: HD market is not yet as big as the PVR market and AMT never found a market for PVRs outside News Corp's Sky and Sky Italia.

[darrin1471] 25/6/2007 15:04

Sir Alan did quite a few interviews when the apprentice ended and I gained the impression that he did not like the way corporate UK was moving. He reminiscenced about the old days when he could do a deal in a boardroom with the boss and without the solicitors and the accountants. By using low gearing to invest in a range of commercial property, Sir Alan appears to be preparing for retirement.
What would Sir Alan then do with Amstrad? Maximize profits then sell?

[brando69] 25/6/2007 15:03

giving the 32p special divi was the worst thing ti could have done. signalled to the market that it had absolutely nothing better to do with the cash.

[jtcod] 25/6/2007 14:58

Hi Camb
Obviously, I would if I could.;-)

I don't know what everyone is worrying about. It ain't going bust because it has £28m in cash. The probability of the new product launch not happening at some time soon is almost non-existent imo and if they lost contracts because of delays, the HD market is so big potentially that I am sure they could find new contracts if they were prepared to sacrifice some margin.

The price may drop but I'm looking at the business and I see precious little real world risk here at this price.

As ever all IMHO.

[cambium] 25/6/2007 14:52

JT, Can you lend me the 25 million, :o)

[jtcod] 25/6/2007 14:49

For £68m AMS could bid £1.60 per share for the remaining shares and it would cost him £68m after back to back arrangements on the current £28m cash holdings.

His current cut of income from AMT on a concensus fwd earnings of £16m would be £4.55m, meaning a £68m investment would return £11.45m pre tax or 16.8% return. Try finding that in a company that would still have zero gearing. They are about to enter a new age of HD stb sales also. IMO such a move would make sound business sense.

[recruiter] 25/6/2007 14:47

the old addage of let the trend be your friend seems to speak out here, otherwise these do seem incredibly cheap.

[weatherman] 25/6/2007 14:46

If trading is not going to plan do they have to make a statement ?

Bearing in mind that AMT already has nearly 10p in the bag at the interim, then even if it has made nothing in the past 6 months, it has to be good value at these levels does it not?.

[jtcod] 25/6/2007 14:37

I wouldn't blame Sir Alan if he made a bid for the remaining shares in AMT and took it private at these levels. He's got the cash to do it following the sale of his share of Spurs recently.

On a straight ROE there are far worse places to park his cash.

Strip out the cash and they are on a fwd PE of about 6.

[brando69] 25/6/2007 14:37

they are on a lower p/e than that are they not? where do you take your figure from?

[guru11] 25/6/2007 14:31

brando69 - yep just keeps going one way, but then look at the ratio of sells to buys - 9:1 and after last Fridays bad ratio too. On a pe of 10 now currently and that is if they only make 3p eps in the second half, so it could be lower. My guess is they will make 14p eps giving a pe of 8.7.

Surely there must come a time when it reaches good value.

But the concerning factor is - although it is making profit - what is in the pipeline to maintain those profits and how soon are the new products going to come out!

When it goes back up, it could go back up radically.

[brando69] 25/6/2007 14:19

and down we go again... should be at my target of 118 by the end of the week, if not before

[guru11] 25/6/2007 08:55

house prices are already at unaffordable levels for new starters, what is crippling business is business rates, transport costs, and ken livingstone who thinks that everyone has deep unlimited pockets. jobs are more difficult to find when you add up the unemployed claiming benefit, the unemployed who cant claim benefit, and the people on incapacity benefit, probably 4.4m as a whole.

back to amt though, what is slowing amt is although they are making profit, products in the pipeline appear a little way off. maybe we have reached the bottom here now.

[mike24] 25/6/2007 08:37

the effects of inflation is crippling UK companies,
97 Brown there will be no more boom & bust cycles
we will not allow house prices to rise to unaffordable levels
05 Brown the housing wealth we have created since coming to power blah blah
i'm out off commercial prop, the risks look to high

brando now look wot yer done to the share price

[guru11] 23/6/2007 22:56

Some good posts by brondo69 -

If someone wants to win the Apprentice then mentioning the share price fall or his son's competance in running Amstrad, may not be too diplomatic. However Alan Sugar could point out that Alba to has also fallen.

17 to 1 in favour of the falls on Friday is a bit worrying.

The question is how long can it keep falling, as said above it could fall further but one who shorts AMT now could be making an unwise decision, as sooner or later it will bounce. The other question is what is in the pipeline - in this high tech business - to justify a share price rise. It did make £10m profit half way and it has £28m in cash, but where is it going? One to watch certainly.