Amstrad Share Discussion Threads

[brown trousers] 01/6/2007 13:12

jt look at yer blog

[jtcod] 01/6/2007 12:44

Short to medium term holding darrin, unless something better came along that is ISAble.

Of course the thing that no-one has mentioned yet is only 13 mths to the Olympics, which should drive more HD sales next year also.

If the share price drops further, I may raise my stake but I don't think it will. This is already down to a fwd PE of 6.5 (net of cash) against a new significant product launch and Sky+ waiving subscription charge, that looks too far to me. I think the last guidance by the company on timing will prove correct.

Only time will tell though.

[darrin1471] 01/6/2007 12:08

JTC: What time period are expecting to hold for?
I expected AMT to fall a little faster and further than it has over the last year. I think there is still the potential to fall another 15-20% before a 12-24 month recovery to £2-£2.50.
Potential downside risks are:
Only 4 weeks of deliveries left for the full year and still no sign of an HD-DVR. These volumes were not going to be significant this year but a further delay adds costs and uncertainties.
I have speculated that AMT's new DVR in the "final stages of development" is a Hybrid Sky MPEG4 Broadband/Freeview DVR. Sky have not had the regulatory go ahead for this product as Sky channels would be lost to basic Freeview subscribers. If Sky are unable to use MPEG4 then this products development and potential could be constrained.
Pace have this year started using a single chip for its stbs. This will result in price deflation of 25%+ in their MPEG HD-DVR for DirecTV this year. How will this affect AMT? Are AMT ready to run with a single chip or will this be in development, resulting in delays and lost sales.
These three issues are only potential issues and may never be an problem.

Sky's news about the removal of Sky+ fees and their introduction of push VoD and broadband VoD should at least double the demand for Sky+ stbs unless there are single chip issues as aforementioned.

I do not hold AMT yet, so from a personnel point of view I hope AMT has bad news for the next few months so that I can buy in at a lower price. I do hold Pace (PIC) who are on a long overdue run at the moment. I will continue to assess the upside between these two investments and balance my holdings accordingly. Both AMT and PIC look likely to cash in over the next few years on pay-TV and hybrid IPTV.

[cambium] 01/6/2007 10:16

JT, you certainly added a spike to the volume chart.

[garfield31] 01/6/2007 09:55

JTC Thanks for that

[jtcod] 01/6/2007 09:43

Garf
RE: DWN
Not sure if you were asking me but I have just looked and the 5 year Balance sheet picture is one of the worst I have seen. 5yrs of negative equity and that's including the 'thin air' of intangibles. £23m debt and insufficient assets to secure = High Risk imo

[garfield31] 01/6/2007 09:35

Thanks for last post. Now 137.2 on phone purchase. Have had these on potential list of income shares. Do you have view on DWN which looking at to increase for income and protection against correction?

[jtcod] 01/6/2007 09:05

Have bought approx. 250k shares in various transactions today mainly 136p. The stock is well oversold imo.

[darrin1471] 22/5/2007 10:14

Sky is abolishing the £10 per month fee for Sky+ from July 1st. Good news for stb suppliers as this is designed to stimulate demand.

Less than 6 weeks until the end of the financial year and no sign of any HD-DVR yet

[darrin1471] 16/5/2007 14:48

Ofcom has asked Sky for more information on its DTT pay-TV plans, pushing back the start of the media regulator's official consultation on the proposals.
This delay deals a serious blow to Sky's hopes of launching the pay-TV service this summer in time for the start of the Premiership football season in August


Sky need a new stb for this service

[h4rsh2] 08/5/2007 17:16

AMT 's like a yoyo, climbs asthe day progresses and falls in the
last couple of hours of trading...

[iwillbe] 05/5/2007 22:29

anybody know when there are any trading statements due in the near future...

[8042juwils] 27/4/2007 13:20

mike24 - oops sorry - must buy at top range in future. what was i thinking of - lol

[h4rsh2] 25/4/2007 13:23

got in this one ,already rising hoping to get out 155 ish short term.

[8042juwils] 23/4/2007 16:40

Funny old share this one. I bought nearly 22,000 shares last week and still haven't seen the deals anywhere. The share price also at times bears no sembalance to the bid and offer on line

[darrin1471] 20/4/2007 08:19

danski. Worth a further look. DYOR. More than a one trick pony, but stbs look to be the most important product going forward. 2008 onwards looks better but it depends upon Amstrads products and Sky's plans. Like their products, Amstrad is not a long term holding.
Price drop has taken longer than I expected against a rising market and may fall further before positive news surfaces and reverses the trend.

[danski] 19/4/2007 23:42

i am tempted to look further at this as an unloved company who are basically strong on fundamentals.


but what does the future hold? are they maybe too much of a one-trick pony?

[darrin1471] 19/4/2007 14:52

I love the Apprentice and swearing chefs. Viewing figures show I am not the only one. Both hosts show passion for their industry and are far more successful than you or I. They are no where near perfect or ideal but what I find amazing often is the naivety of the entrepreneurs and the apprentices.

AMT weakness today may be due to Freeview's announcement of Playback which is a Freeview Sky+ service.


AMT's sales may indirectly benefit from Playback.

[netcurtains] 19/4/2007 13:40

who are you calling a stonking Short ?
moderator!!!
Sort this out.. There is nothing wrong with being small!

[mike24] 19/4/2007 11:33

blair our record on inflation is superb,

er thanks tony my kids pension fund on initial highly leveraged investment has jumped 200%
in last six months hedging inflation, I tell the kids this is not as
good as it sounds, the purchasing power of the pound
in your pocket to-day will be worth 10p in 30yrs time, they say lets cash the chips in, pay the 40% tax and run,
I say don,t sell, the 40% payable will eventually
have capitol apreciation again, plus the leveraged
amount will have depreciated in real terms 05/06/07 by maybe as much as 10% yr,
beyond 07 the real rate of inflation should equal the cost of borrowing=free money,the equity can then used to buy some bargains, the downside is, these gains are someone else's loses,(pensions & savings)
but don't take my advise, listen to the experts,

china's growth in last 13wks 11.1%= a compounded rate over 52wks would be
nearly 50% growth (inflation) that hedge fund geezer on the box summed it
up nicely, the cake is only so big it's all about them getting a bigger slice,
which the rest of us have to pay for, and what has private equity done for
debenhams, a very dejected workforce there, do they really want to hear
about the UK's rich list?

[power] 19/4/2007 10:44

BBC . Why would they waste time featuring a loser who doesnt appear interested in digging himself out. Maybe he gets more from filming than he earns from his rotting company.
Why are the Brits amused by ignorant louts like swearing chefs and Sugar's intolerant unaceptable behaviour ? I suppose it fits with the footballer spectators norm.

[power] 19/4/2007 10:38

It's a rubbish stock as Ive pointed out before. Nothing but a stonking Short .

[8042juwils] 18/4/2007 15:01

quiet little bb this !