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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amstrad | AMT | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 149.50 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 149.50 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 31/7/2007 09:22 by pierre oreilly Your posts are never usually that short Darrin - what happened? Why no more comments on the relative merits of AMT vs PIC?Having read the RNS, it looks like SKY did a good job of knocking AMT's price (by dealying contracts etc) in order to try to buy it on the cheap. 150p, although a great price relative to yesterday, isn't so great relative to the last year. Bearing in mind the cash AMT holds, the still very low valuation, the fact that SKY would have awarded contracts to buy AMT's stuff, then I think, at 150p, AMT is too cheap and that SKY are getting too much of a bargain (and that is obviously what SKY is good at). No pleasing some eh? |
Posted at 26/6/2007 12:46 by darrin1471 8 of the last 11 buy signals on Britishbulls have been wrong.Total volume has only been 500k in the last 5 days, so unless it's Sky or Amt employees are selling then it is unlikely to be any significant bad news out there apart from Amt missing the HD-DVR delivery target. Amt are at the lows of Sept 05 and could fall a little further this time as some of the cash pile has been paid out as a special dividend. Alba has suffered a similar fall over the last 5 days. |
Posted at 15/6/2007 13:14 by yotter My view is this:1. The market does not like AMT. 2. Alan Sugar should get off the telly and back into AMT. I feel a short could be the answer here. imho, dyor, nai etc PS: I used to hold a good number of AMT shares and sold after the special dividend for a good overall profit (lost on the bargain, but gained more through the dividend). |
Posted at 13/6/2007 16:03 by darrin1471 Sky is unlikely to dump AMT. AMT do not have the best stbs (see contingencies in last annual results) but they have a great gross margin which indicates they can produce the lowest cost stb, which drives down the price Sky pays to their other suppliers.AMT has the Hong Kong hifi design business and the revenue from the emailer phone. Both have good gross margins. IMHO. The loss of the Sky contract would halve the current value of AMT. |
Posted at 03/6/2007 16:42 by darrin1471 JTCod: I am happy to work together on AMT. I follow stbs and their customers as this is an exciting area to be in as the internet and television merge. There are a lot of big companies fighting to supply the technology and the content to consumers all over the world.I hope you have the time to look deeper into AMT and maybe PIC in order to see the potential of both companies and why the difference in market cap can be justified and in my opinion, likely to grow. "every financial fact says that AMT should be valued on a higher market cap than PIC" Based upon recent historical results, dividends and balance sheet. Yes AMT should have a higher mkt cap than PIC. PIC's "fwd earnings are lower than AMT". That is what the brokers are saying, but their figures are wrong. PIC are issuing a year end trading statement tomorrow in which turnover will be revealed to be considerably above the £340m-£360m forecast. My guess is £425m but I would be happy with £400m and it could be over £450m. My figures would require a broker upgrade. If the brokers are correct then I will shut up and do better research next time. PIC profits will not match turnover this year because of low gross margins on new high volume products. PIC expect to rectify this during the 7 month financial year ending Dec 2007 and reap the full benefits during 2008. Their target is gross margins above 20%. If PIC achieve this and maintain turnover above £400m then 2008 profits start at £30m and 22% on £450m would result in £50m profits. With the best customer portfolio for pay-TV stbs in the world PIC warrants a higher p/e ratio based on growth opportunities and as a potential takeover target. Another few areas of concern I have for AMT, but have not looked into fully are: Service revenues from the emailer appear to contribute around 30% of the profits to AMT through Amserve. These revenues dropped 20% in the last six months. This trend is likely to continue. Amstrad international products appear to be all audio CD based. Surely this also has to be a shrinking business. Possible import duties on advanced stbs could hit AMT harder and erode their enviable gross margins as Pace and Thomson both have EU manufacturing capacity unlike AMT. |
Posted at 03/6/2007 15:37 by jtcod sueI doubt it in the short term. Possibly in another 24 months perhaps, if the HD-PVR product goes well. I do think that, business allowing, AMT will continue to pay reasonable dividends because it is so tax efficient for the Sugar family. Alan Sugar's shareholding in AMT is held via Amshold Ltd in Jersey. His holding company. The channel islands announced last year that corporation tax would reduce to zero. That means that AMT pay the automatic 10 % tax to the UK government on the dividends, the cash transfers to the Channel Islands and the rest is tax free. |
Posted at 02/6/2007 14:59 by darrin1471 I do not hold shares or short AMT. I do hold PIC. I expect AMT to double within 12-24 months but it may fall further before recovery.JTCod: You know better than most that investor value is not the only way to value a share. Twelve months ago Pace's market cap was £115m. An 80% rise in share price negates any concerns I have about asset depletion. 12 months ago AMT net market cap was close to what it is now yet this did not result in a positive revaluation. AMT's share price has been closely linked to its contracts with Sky and Sky Italia and this is likely to continue in the immediate future. PIC's valuation and rising share price is based upon the new contracts it is winning with Pay-TV especially in the US. PIC has prioritised gross margins over the next few years and if they succeed then they will have a lower forward p/e than AMT. AMT has very high gross margins on Sky stbs but has not got a history of producing cutting edge products like MPEG4 stbs. Can AMT continue to win business from Sky and achieve the same high gross margins? |
Posted at 01/6/2007 12:08 by darrin1471 JTC: What time period are expecting to hold for?I expected AMT to fall a little faster and further than it has over the last year. I think there is still the potential to fall another 15-20% before a 12-24 month recovery to £2-£2.50. Potential downside risks are: Only 4 weeks of deliveries left for the full year and still no sign of an HD-DVR. These volumes were not going to be significant this year but a further delay adds costs and uncertainties. I have speculated that AMT's new DVR in the "final stages of development" is a Hybrid Sky MPEG4 Broadband/Freeview DVR. Sky have not had the regulatory go ahead for this product as Sky channels would be lost to basic Freeview subscribers. If Sky are unable to use MPEG4 then this products development and potential could be constrained. Pace have this year started using a single chip for its stbs. This will result in price deflation of 25%+ in their MPEG HD-DVR for DirecTV this year. How will this affect AMT? Are AMT ready to run with a single chip or will this be in development, resulting in delays and lost sales. These three issues are only potential issues and may never be an problem. Sky's news about the removal of Sky+ fees and their introduction of push VoD and broadband VoD should at least double the demand for Sky+ stbs unless there are single chip issues as aforementioned. I do not hold AMT yet, so from a personnel point of view I hope AMT has bad news for the next few months so that I can buy in at a lower price. I do hold Pace (PIC) who are on a long overdue run at the moment. I will continue to assess the upside between these two investments and balance my holdings accordingly. Both AMT and PIC look likely to cash in over the next few years on pay-TV and hybrid IPTV. |
Posted at 04/4/2007 14:00 by darrin1471 I am tempted to blame it on the quality of the contestants on the Apprentice. I think there is a misunderstanding among investors and the press in regard to what AMT are designing for Sky. All the talk refers to a HDTV PVR. If you look at the AMT interim statement, it is talking about two products, not one. "Deliveries of an HDTV PVR box are due to commence in the second half of the financial year. We are in the final stages of developing a new PVR box which should leave us well placed for the future." AMT's original statement in July 05 said "Amstrad PLC said it has agreed to develop and supply a new PVR set top box with BSkyB, adding it will sell "significant volumes" of the new product in the year to June 2007" I believe AMT have two products for Sky. First the MPEG4 HD-PVR which is an advanced product, only made by a very few companies, all who have struggled to deliver with much larger R&D budgets than AMT. There could be further delays here or Thomson who has almost a years experience of deployments could have undercut AMT's price. Secondly I would speculate, based upon AMT's and Sky's statements that Sky requires a Hybrid IPTV PVR stb like the BT Vision product. This I believe is the new PVR that was originally talked about in the July 05 statement. This is also a technically complicated stb whose mass adoption is potentially restricted in part by the broadband network. Other delays may occur due to Virgin's and others complaints to Ofcom about Sky's proposed withdrawal of Sky programming off Freeview. Declaration: I only hold shares in Pace and follow Amstrad Amino and ANT waiting for investment opportunities. |
Posted at 19/2/2007 15:24 by darrin1471 As an observer of AMT but not a holder I have to admit that AMT achieve an excellent profit for the market they are in. AMT are over reliant on a single customer (BskyB) and their products are not the best. If AMT relied on quality and innovation to retain their contract with BskyB then they would probably lose their customer, but AMT with their lower cost base and quality drive down the unit cost to BskyB and the other suppliers have to follow and therefore supply a valuable service to BskyB.The new PVR that AMT are making for BskyB is probably for their new DTT service and this stb will probably include VOD and broadband connectivity. In addition to the volumes sold to BskyB this also opens up a whole new market which AMT may be able to service throughout Europe especially with the Telco companies to whom AMT have been talking to about smart phones. There are a few risks ahead during the next few months. The HD DVR is a premium product for Sky's most profitable customers so quality may be a more important factor than price in the short term. With a 3-5 month lead time for MPEG4 components, AMT could be left waiting for components or already committed to components that are falling in value before AMT have confirmed orders for working boxes. Sky needs regulatory approval for their new DTT service and that is not certain when Virgin are complaining about Sky's stake in ITV and new products are trying to get off the ground like BT Vision and Tiscali Homechoice. No DTT for Sky would be very bad news for AMT. In 6-12 months these risks may have passed and AMT may enter a period of very buoyant sales. |
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