Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2016 16:56

Wrong. The only thing this saltworthy management has done is put it in tiny text at the bottom of the page where they hope people don't look.

Management estimates. ugh.

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 16:51

Thanks for that reply stinkypeet.

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 16:36

"The highly dubious management estimate of 60% COS" In this case, Dan, I believe that our take-with-a- sack-of-salt management have been careful to ascribe that 60% CoS to Senergy.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2016 15:42

Warbaby - 0.7p tgt no longer stands, sadly. Might even push higher in the interim.

Finding it amusing that success in Ruvuma is being spoken of as a foregone conclusion. The highly dubious management estimate of 60% COS for net, about 200bcf recoverable [might be wrong on that]? is hardly concrete for N2. N3 must be standard explo range of 30% max I would think.

N2 is a beautiful 'management estimate', which requires a truck load of salt anyway. Wonder what an independent would put on it....!

[stinkypeet] 04/8/2016 15:07

warbaby - I would be speculating but I think it highly likley to be "in partnership" with the TPDC and or the "chinese".... However I would not see the development of, say a "CNG bottling plant", to be beyond the ability of AEX to build themselves - or maybe in conjunction with one of their end clients (say Dangote).... THough I would agree with your sentiment in principle...

greyingsurfer - there was no specific mention of this but It was suggested that the TPDC are solely concentrating on Appraisal and Development licenses and activity and as a consquence I think the longer term "Exploration" licenses are no longer key deliverables. So, in summary I believe that after delivery of a 25 development license for Ntorya all obligations will be satisfied. I belief is that Namisinge would be the "4th" well in ordinary circumstances but these all change materially with the signing of the 25 development license...

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 14:29

stinky/crusty your point 11 coincides with this from Vike1 - "- Short term options to monitise Ruvuma gas that have an immediate need include: (i) Mtwara city generation, (ii) Dangote cement factory - currently only getting 8MW but have a 50MW need, (iii) Madimba Freeport for heavy industry" so am I safe to assume from your number 12 that any EPS would be in conjunction with TPDC or another third party and not AEX flying solo, which would seriously alarm me?

[greyingsurfer] 04/8/2016 13:45

Thanks crusty/stinky

2) It is anticipated that the requirement to drill a 4th well before the end of 2017 will be replaced / rolled into the 25 year development license post NT2 drilling success - can't be guaranteed but fully expected.

Can you clarify if the 4th well is to be the 4th well in total (including the discovery well) or if you mean the 4th well from here? Which implies another well after N2 & N-3 and before (probably) Namisange.

My previous understanding of the licence conditions was the Ntorya appraisal, plus another 4 wells. Though that has perhaps changed with the apparent move (unstated as far as I know) towards likely relinquishment of Lindi - however the 27th June RNS implied the Lindi obligations would be transferred to Mtwara? Was there any mention of this at the EGM?

Peter

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 13:33

Many thanks for that stinkypeet and to greyingsurfer for the re-direct.

[greyingsurfer] 04/8/2016 12:57

I assume crusty pete's report is on another board - anyone care to cut and paste it onto here?

Hi WB, it's on the LSE site, not one I use much or enjoy using much. But it was at about 9.00am on Wed morning if you work back. Lots of AEX chat there.

Peter

[stinkypeet] 04/8/2016 11:31

Morning Quackers

Model is to shoot lots of seismic then follow up with drill bit.(Cannot remember which company was mentioned that did this successfully)

I believe I am right in saying that the name of the firm you are looking for as Appache - one of JB's previous employers who he has a great regard for...

[blackgold00] 04/8/2016 11:12

thanks quackers, good overview, yes we are riding a different beast now, which will become more apparent as the weeks and months go on.

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 11:11

Many thanks, qackers, much appreciated. I assume crusty pete's report is on another board - anyone care to cut and paste it onto here?

[qackers] 04/8/2016 11:03

Thanks to Vike1 and crusty pete for their excellent reports from the EGM.
I was present and would like to offer the following observations.

Zubair are the vehicle for one of the richest and successful families in the Middle East. (To get them onboard is not too shabby for a 5 out of 10 CEO imo). They already have extensive interests in Tanzania. They were happy to pay a premium to the market price but would not go over 30% as they would have to make a bid which they didn’t want to do.

They want to be a big player in the East African energy market with over 25% market share.(Mentioned that East Africa in this context was Egypt down to S Africa. (I guess Aminex is their chosen vehicle to achieve this)
They will maintain 30% holding in company as it grows (!)
They are long term investors (handing over to next generation)

45% of the company shares are now in long term hands.

Looking to apply for 25 year development license on appraisal area. This is backed by TPDC. No longer an exploration company. I think this is why they said they were now being offered projects, which they would turn down as they are looking for production targets. Model is to shoot lots of seismic then follow up with drill bit.(Cannot remember which company was mentioned that did this successfully)

KN1 performing well. Reluctant to give figures and timings probably due to previous holdups but the clear impression given was that everything is going to plan.

What is difficult to get across on paper is the change of mood from the directors. For me there was a sense of relief that the cornerstone investors were finally in place and a chapter had closed and a new optimistic one had started.

The market has every right to be skeptical given the history but I think it is underestimating the value of the relationships that the board has built in Tanzania. Yes everything has taken much longer than thought but in hindsight without these relationships they would surly gone under by now.

It’s now down to execution of plan.

[skinwalker] 04/8/2016 10:50

nice jump in the share price I see - not surprising I guess with all the positive news of late

[warbaby43] 04/8/2016 10:40

Dan, while agreeing with your general principle that where Aminex is concerned, one can never be too cynical, can't help wondering how you might be going on with that .7p August short you mentioned when last hereabouts.

[blackgold00] 04/8/2016 10:23

looks like the KN well test produced some what less condensate than the 150 bpd being produced with gas production at 22 mmcfd

4 JUNE 2008

AMINEX PLC

RESULT OF WELL TEST

Kiliwani North-1 well tests gas 40 million cubic feet/day

Aminex PLC, the oil and gas company listed in London and Dublin ("Aminex" or the "Company") announces a successful well test at the
Kiliwani North-1 well in Tanzania.

Initial results from the test have established:

* A strong stabilised flow of gas at a rate of 40 million cubic feet/day, equivalent to 6,700 barrels of oil per day, through a
72/64ths" choke;

* Strong flowing wellhead pressures;

* Condensate of one barrel per million cubic feet;

* No CO2 or H2S impurities.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2016 09:35

Absolute garbage edgar.

The original flow test, how many years ago? 7? reported condensate.

[edgar222] 04/8/2016 09:34

To answer the question, no. They were not expecting fluids at KN1. Always been described as dry gas. Nice little bonus if it is true.

[dan_the_epic] 04/8/2016 09:34

So I bought a few shares a while back (chocolate bar money) so I could go to the EGM.

I rate Bhattacherjee as a 5/10 CEO.

I guess the naivety part showed through when he was proud to comment that interest in projects from investment bankers had soared since the raise.

Well... really?! Investment banks want to make money. They go to companies that can pay them fees for, often, shoddy projects. They don't go to companies that were previously heading for death's door! I remain of the view here that I hope they do some M+A activity or acquire some big projects. It's one of the fastest ways to destroy value when done badly.

San Leon has form with that; oh wait, P Thompson was there.....
That Moldova project went well.....

[squibno1] 04/8/2016 08:41

Who would not want to buy in on the back of the cpr. - Aminex commissioned a competent persons report, released in May 2015, which estimated the potential for nearly 10trn cubic feet of gas in place across the Ruvuma and Nyuni exploration areas.

More importantly, that study identified four ‘drill ready’ prospects in the Ruvuma PSA. These prospects - Ntorya Updip, Namisange, Likonde Updip, and Sudi - were together estimated to host 3 trillion cubic feet (3 TCF) of possible gas resources.

In Nyuni, meanwhile, a total of 5.7 trn cubic feet of in-place gas resources was estimated.

[blackgold00] 04/8/2016 08:25

new market cap £42m

[888icb] 04/8/2016 08:13

The rump shares were taken up without any problem which is very encouraging. I think the people who failed to take up the open offer may regret their decision in the coming months but can understand how they could have lost faith due to the many false dawns in the past.

[blackgold00] 04/8/2016 07:59

yes cheering news indeed warbaby, thats Aminex fully charged now and rearing to go.