Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[blackgold00] 12/7/2016 16:31

ngms, "They are powerless to stop anything."

Well yes, i suppose they would be powerless to stop a buy-out, if offered at the right price.

Remember Roland Shaw, chairman of Premier Oil, and how he saw off Carless Capel when they made a hostile bid for Premier in the 1980s, "Shaw deployed his charisma to good effect, unleashing a knock-about publicity barrage in a campaign which culminated in a mass meeting of private shareholders, who rejected the bid outright." Ahh, those were the days, when men were men.

[ngms27] 12/7/2016 14:47

1775, absolute rubbish, only one Director has a notifiable interest W.A.P Thompsom at 7.91% which will reduce materially post placing.

They are powerless to stop anything.

[joestalin] 12/7/2016 14:28

How much would you accept? Just curious.

[1775] 12/7/2016 14:26

Of course Zubair can make an offer any time they want - doesn't mean that the majority of shareholders will accept. Our directors control a major shareholding and I don't think they'll accept a low ball offer.

[ngms27] 12/7/2016 12:36

I'm sure they would, like I've said before is a coin toss on Ntorya. Heads you win tail you lose the lot (or almost)

[blackgold00] 12/7/2016 12:31

as of today, i would think, a lot of shareholders would bite their arms off for 4p. but then its all about on the day and how Aminex is then perceived.

[ngms27] 12/7/2016 12:16

Post placing Zubair will have at least 27.45% equity. If Ntorya comes in they could probably easily go over the 30% figure without materially affecting the share price thus triggering an offer at at least the market price.

So lets say the shares jump to 3p on NT-2 success, they then offer 4p, 25% premium and the jobs a good un IMHO

[blackgold00] 12/7/2016 12:04

Success at Ntorya = share price / MC increase and if then Zubair want's to take out Aminex, they will have to increase their share holding by some 50%? to give them a majority, which i would had thought would put quite an upward pressure on the share price. what do you mean by on the cheap ngms?

[ngms27] 12/7/2016 11:38

The story is straight forward. Success at Ntorya and Aminex are taken out cheaply by Zubair

[blackgold00] 12/7/2016 10:16

yesterdays Malcy's Blog

Aminex
Somewhat mysteriously Aminex announced on Friday afternoon that they were raising up to £19.5m via a placing and open offer at 1.3p. The new cornerstone investor is Zubair Corp from Oman who are taking the bulk of the potential issue and given that the current market cap of Aminex is only £27m this is indeed a very decent raise and at a premium to the recent price and will leave Zubair in a strong position. The money raised will be used to drill the appraisal well on Ntorya-2 and the exploration well on Ntorya-3 and should open up the potential within Aminex that I believe is there. More when I have spoken with Jay as I suspect there is an interesting story...

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 21:41

Solo share price seems under pressure, i wonder how they will be funding their 25% share of N-2 and N-3 at $5.5ml aprox for their share of costs ? did i not read some where that Bounty was looking to further their exploration opportunities, a farm-in on agreable terms to share costs could be a good for both. i'm sure that NR is working on something.

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 20:04

so hopefully by the end of 2017, we could be applying for a 25-year development licence

"the Ntorya-2 appraisal well and the Ntorya-3 exploration well to be drilled in the main channel. Aminex’s has contracted a drilling contractor to prepare the well plan and manage the tendering process for the Ntorya-2 well. The Company intends to drill the Ntorya-2 well to satisfy appraisal drilling obligations and then to apply for a 25-year development licence subject to its success In addition to drilling the two wells, Aminex is planning to recomplete the Ntorya-1 well prior to putting the well on production."

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 16:50

thanks peter, so TPDC has not exercised its security interest over the Kiliwani North yet, so not untill end of 2017 will it arise ?

"The Directors confirm that, other than Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3, the Company will not undertake the spudding of any exploration wells within the 12-month period from the date of this Prospectus unless alternative additional financing is secured. Consequently even in the event that the extension of the
Mtwara Licence and the transfer of drilling obligations from the Lindi Licence are formally approved by the Minister of Energy & Mines, the Company is unlikely to fulfil the remaining three exploration well commitments within the TPDC approved one year extension period. Consequently the Company is exposed to the risk of the Tanzanian authorities rescinding the licence and/or TPDC exercising its remaining security of 12 per cent. interest over the Kiliwani North Development Licence (assuming the Ntorya-3 well is spudded)."

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 16:38

So it was but I still find it incredulous that for such a large prospect on land with proven hydrocarbons, pipeline being constructed nearby that no one farmed in (BLVN excepted)

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 16:28

ngms, just by chance, NT-1 was drilled on the edge of the prospect, and could only test the 4mt sand above the water line. NT-2 is up-dip in the thicker sands and importantly its believed here all the gas filled sands are above the water line.

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 16:22

So why didn't they get a farm-in?
Did others think it doesn't have a 60% COS given the very thin sands in NT-1?

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 16:03

with a 60% chance rate for N-2 the odds arn't bad, so yes you should feel lucky

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 15:07

It's essentially a binary bet on Ntorya from here.

Do you feel lucky?

[888icb] 11/7/2016 14:57

SP is moving up now above 1.3p which is the placing and open offer price. I would anticipate the share price moving substantially higher once the new money comes in so it may well be worth picking them up now if you want more than your open offer entitlement.Just a thought.

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 14:13

Would there be any point having the take or pay figure below 23mmscfpd unless they plan to shut down the plant for periods during the following 12 months?

My main argument remains where is the demand for what amounts to 14% additional gas over current consumption / demand? The Gas will have to go somewhere.

Thus if the take or pay is below 23mmscfpd then it's clear the plant will not operate for the full 12 months.

[stinkypeet] 11/7/2016 13:40

I fully anticipate something approximating to yor last paragraph - what concerns me more is the time taken to agree that figure; "conservative" or otherwise....

[greyingsurfer] 11/7/2016 13:24

BG

In the event that TPDC elects not to take delivery of the pre-determined volume, it will pay for the equivalent of 85% of the agreed commercial rate of gas to be supplied, adjusted each year in accordance with the terms of the GSA.

I have to agree with ngms that the amount in the take or pay deal will be decided by TPDC (in consultation with AEX no doubt) once the test results are in and analysed.

However, it's also clear that the plant needs 23mmscfd and that the idea of running it part week or year is fantasy, and that there is currently no other supply available. Tanzanian demand has increased and will continue to do so. It's true there is additional supply available, but how much is actually flowing is unclear - a significant chunk of that is supposed to be from Orca but how that will get to market, what contracts will be signed, what will be done about back payments etc all remains to be seen. In the meantime KN-1 is flowing gas and a sensible view on commercial production rates should be possible in the next couple of months - at which time TPDC either have to sign up or shut the plant and whistle for gas. As ngms keeps telling us the KN-1 supply will fall off in a couple of years - by which time I expect TPDC are hoping to have got things resolved with Orca - so their gas will supplement, as demand grows, and ultimately perhaps replace KN-1 gas.

As for what the agreed commercial rate will be - I've said before that I won't be surprised if the figure agreed is conservative. The contracts allow additional gas to be supplied and paid for, at the same rate, so there may be a view that setting the take or pay limit low and then expecting to take surplus may benefit both parties.

Peter

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 13:03

Also ask yourselves a question. Given that KN-1 producing at 30mmscfpd adds 14% to the current supply (Aminex's own figure) is there 14% of demand that is currently not being supplied?

If there isn't will TPDC reduce supply from other operators to give Aminex a slice?

I categorically know that there isn't 14% demand not being supplied at present but by 2018 there will be. We know what M&P and Wentworth have in there GSA so I doubt they could/would be scaled back.

So in my opinion there remains material doubt that Aminex will be able to supply 30mmscfpd even if KN-1 obliges under test.