Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 15:07

It's essentially a binary bet on Ntorya from here.

Do you feel lucky?

[888icb] 11/7/2016 14:57

SP is moving up now above 1.3p which is the placing and open offer price. I would anticipate the share price moving substantially higher once the new money comes in so it may well be worth picking them up now if you want more than your open offer entitlement.Just a thought.

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 14:13

Would there be any point having the take or pay figure below 23mmscfpd unless they plan to shut down the plant for periods during the following 12 months?

My main argument remains where is the demand for what amounts to 14% additional gas over current consumption / demand? The Gas will have to go somewhere.

Thus if the take or pay is below 23mmscfpd then it's clear the plant will not operate for the full 12 months.

[stinkypeet] 11/7/2016 13:40

I fully anticipate something approximating to yor last paragraph - what concerns me more is the time taken to agree that figure; "conservative" or otherwise....

[greyingsurfer] 11/7/2016 13:24

BG

In the event that TPDC elects not to take delivery of the pre-determined volume, it will pay for the equivalent of 85% of the agreed commercial rate of gas to be supplied, adjusted each year in accordance with the terms of the GSA.

I have to agree with ngms that the amount in the take or pay deal will be decided by TPDC (in consultation with AEX no doubt) once the test results are in and analysed.

However, it's also clear that the plant needs 23mmscfd and that the idea of running it part week or year is fantasy, and that there is currently no other supply available. Tanzanian demand has increased and will continue to do so. It's true there is additional supply available, but how much is actually flowing is unclear - a significant chunk of that is supposed to be from Orca but how that will get to market, what contracts will be signed, what will be done about back payments etc all remains to be seen. In the meantime KN-1 is flowing gas and a sensible view on commercial production rates should be possible in the next couple of months - at which time TPDC either have to sign up or shut the plant and whistle for gas. As ngms keeps telling us the KN-1 supply will fall off in a couple of years - by which time I expect TPDC are hoping to have got things resolved with Orca - so their gas will supplement, as demand grows, and ultimately perhaps replace KN-1 gas.

As for what the agreed commercial rate will be - I've said before that I won't be surprised if the figure agreed is conservative. The contracts allow additional gas to be supplied and paid for, at the same rate, so there may be a view that setting the take or pay limit low and then expecting to take surplus may benefit both parties.

Peter

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 13:03

Also ask yourselves a question. Given that KN-1 producing at 30mmscfpd adds 14% to the current supply (Aminex's own figure) is there 14% of demand that is currently not being supplied?

If there isn't will TPDC reduce supply from other operators to give Aminex a slice?

I categorically know that there isn't 14% demand not being supplied at present but by 2018 there will be. We know what M&P and Wentworth have in there GSA so I doubt they could/would be scaled back.

So in my opinion there remains material doubt that Aminex will be able to supply 30mmscfpd even if KN-1 obliges under test.

[oilretire] 11/7/2016 13:02

And then for 9 months they'll pay for 85% of the agreed commercial rate even though they don't take it?

Get real.

You're a good check & balance for the rose tints, but I think this one has run it's course.

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 12:52

Like I've said before they could operate the Plant for 3 months per year and thus take less than 23mmscfpd.

It's amazing how the 23mmscfpd only came out last week is it not?

[edgar222] 11/7/2016 12:23

Great work, Blackgold.Take the strain off and give up on ngms.You are not dealing with someone who can honestly and straightforwardly read a line of English.

[blackgold00] 11/7/2016 12:16

ngms,there are two points that come to mind, one, the plant needs 23mmscfd to run,

and two

"In the event that TPDC elects not to take delivery of the pre-determined volume, it will pay for the equivalent of 85% of the agreed commercial rate of gas to be supplied, adjusted each year in accordance with the terms of the GSA."

which is the optimal flow rate, that TPDC and Aminex will establish when they conduct the well test.

"Together with TPDC the Company plans to conduct a well test during the production build up to determine the optimal flow rate. It is this optimal flow rate that will become the Commercial Production Rate and the Company intends to flow gas at this rate for as long as possible prior to a natural decline in production."

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 11:44

I think you are misinterpreting. It's quite clear to me that the following is true:
TPDC and not Aminex will decide how much Gas they will take over the 12 month period. Obviously Aminex want as much as possible, TPDC may have not market for this amount of gas so may well take less, perhaps much less per day.
TPDC will take all the gas that can be delivered from KN-1 BUT that could be over a 5 year period and NOT AS MUCH as it's capable of delivering in a 12 month period.

So far the BOD in my opinion have been sparring with the truth, lets see the cold hard facts of an RNS stating EXACTLY what they will have on a take or pay over the next 12 months first.

[haggismchaggis] 11/7/2016 10:03

Another ramping fool.

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 09:07

You did Peter in post 57247
"You're making stuff up again. The prospectus isn't due to be published until the 11th."

[greyingsurfer] 11/7/2016 08:55

I suggest you read the RNS again:
Directors confirm that, other than Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3, the Company will not undertake the spudding of any exploration wells within the 12-month period from the date of this Prospectus unless alternative additional financing is secured" prompted wondering whether the cash not destined for drilling might be towards an Argo payment or being reserved for Namisange or even Nyuni seismic.

Who suggested that any other drilling was planned with the cash?

[ngms27] 11/7/2016 08:39

Peter,

I suggest you read the RNS again:
Directors confirm that, other than Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3, the Company will not undertake the spudding of any exploration wells within the 12-month period from the date of this Prospectus unless alternative additional financing is secured" prompted wondering whether the cash not destined for drilling might be towards an Argo payment or being reserved for Namisange or even Nyuni seismic.

[haggismchaggis] 10/7/2016 21:48

Wrong thread, this is the AEX thread not the ramping fools thread.

[alamaison] 10/7/2016 20:43

XTR: I have a 4m share order under 0.01p. This is a flat liner. Any change of direction will be "brutal". We've had one miss, Mond/Tues we'll have another one.
All depending on the forced sellerS, with a S.
I doubt very much that this will go back to .08.
Check: MATD & MSMN.
Same story there for MATD, waiting for $10m+ from shell and MSMN has a forced selled which is HSBC.
Both on my buy list.
My recent gain was on PTR. Production increase on the way at the end of this month AND Sept too.
Get in at 2p next Thursday/Friday!
BUY: LAM at 64p, RENE at 2.5p if poss, HZD soon...
Enjoy life and remember.
IT'S ONLY MONEY!!!!

[haggismchaggis] 10/7/2016 20:28

How much do we think the two Ntorya wells will cost in this climate of suppressed drilling?Acquisitions, especially if Egyptian production assets are bought from Worldview, could really boost AEX over the coming year.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/11/worldview-moves-in-on-petroceltic-with-163m-debt-purchase/Petroceltic's core area of operations in Egypt is in the onshore Nile Delta where it holds a 100% operated interest in 12 producing fields in 14 development concessions in the El Mansoura and the South East El Mansoura concession areas.In 2014, Petroceltic's daily production in Egypt averaged 19,256 boepd on a working interest basis, which is equivalent to 8,675 boepd on a net entitlement basis. The working interest production split between hydrocarbon types was 95 MMscfpd of gas and 2,821 bpd liquids (oil, condensate and LPG) representing an 85%/15% split on a volume basis. Approximately 74% of the production was derived from the West Dikirnis, South Damas, and the West and South Khilala fields, with the remainder from eight smaller accumulations.http://www.petroceltic.com/operations/egypt.aspx

[blackgold00] 10/7/2016 19:37

I suppose its fair to say that the bulk of the placing, the 983.1m Share holding of Zubair, will not be finding its way into the market and undermining the share price

[edgar222] 10/7/2016 18:50

Well said, Rich. Could not agree more.

[rich2006] 10/7/2016 10:23

It does make you laugh
They slag the company off when they get a farmout, they're giving too much away blah blah blah.
Now they get funding for going it alone and guess what, yeah they slag the company off again.
Compared to over a year ago yeah it's a big discount but most placings only look back a couple of months and IMO a approx 5% discount is not to be sniffed at in this environment.
Ngms always finds some negatives in everything the company does so no surprise there.
IMO the future looks bright now for AEX, a few signatures on the work programs and all uncertainty is gone.
Bring on the drilling.

[blackgold00] 10/7/2016 09:33

i'll give you a shout in 6 months Dan, or before if/when the mcap gets to £60m plus, after a successful N-2 well.

the thing is, at the stroke of a pen, most of the uncertainties that clouded over Aminex's future prospects, have now been lifted, reveling a clear quick route to unlocking Ntorya's 1tcf potential. Dan how much do you think the discovery of a TCF of gas is worth to the mcap of Aminex?