Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[bunbooster2] 09/7/2016 08:22

So that's something like 50% dilution. Dilution always stings but :

- without money the value in Ruvuma isn't going to be unlocked
- the potential value of the proposed drills has a chance of more than offsetting any dilution
- there is a supply gap predicted in 18 months which the Ruvuma drills are positioned for
- an investor showing the confidence to invest a large amount (but not in same way as a farm out, potentially much more short term)
- getting drills in before the end of the year will avoid penalties on KN-1 - looks like they will forfeit 7.5% rather than 15%

So hopefully see some drilling in 2016! Roll up for the East Africa show...

[stinkypeet] 08/7/2016 21:06

vike1 - I am with you on this. How is this bad news? Cheap funding without dilution that we shareholders can participate in.

I would fund getting rid of ARGO trough a bloody rights issue. (totally nor doable but you get my drift).

[smelgys mum] 08/7/2016 20:33

Some say that Hall has good relations with the Tanz authorities - that is something advanced by Hall himself. The Tanz authorities have a duty to their people to do the best for their people and not to the ego of Hall.

The danger is that those interested in "bidding" string Hall along (and pandering to his ego) until we get nearer to 29 October and then politely telling him "nice to have talked to you" and doing a deal for a new PSA with the Tanz authorities.

I may be wrong - but Hall should not be certain that he will get the extension.

The fact is no extension - no farm out.

And under his chairmanship almost a whole year was lost with no sale of the USA assets, no seismic and no farm out of Ruvuma for whatever reason.

And what were the over numbered non execs doing except turning up for the agm and maybe one or more board meetings whilst taking £20,000 each provided by us - the investors? They would say that they were being paid less than the going rate but for what?

[haggismchaggis] 08/7/2016 20:32

It would have made more sense to wait for Kiliwani revenues to push the share price up, thereby lowering dilution, but the BOD must believe this was a good deal because it secured funding for Ntorya drilling both wells and, the upside from success at Ntorya will give shareholders a big return regardless of the dilution now being suffered. Just remember, Ntorya gas is there, the 2 wells are for appraisal, so the risk is much lower than a wildcat. It was wise to get the funding and drill ASAP to then be able to book the resources and get a commercial connection to the gas pipeline. We were never going to get the return on Ntorya for free, not with a farm out or anything else.

[warbaby43] 08/7/2016 19:16

Would seem to be something of a divergence for Zubair, given that they appear to be more of an energy logistics and services operation rather than an E&P outfit:

[sleveen] 08/7/2016 18:16

Who got this right

Jonny T or the rest of you?

[greyingsurfer] 08/7/2016 17:08

Read the prospectus. They cannot use the cash on anything other that NT-2 and NT-3.

You're making stuff up again. The prospectus isn't due to be published until the 11th.

From the RNS:

Net proceeds of the fundraising to be used principally to finance the drilling of the Ntorya-2 appraisal well and the Ntorya-3 exploration well

The Prospectus is expected to be published on 11 July 2016

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 16:12

I don't know if anyone else has also noticed the first payment for Gas is now also overdue given it was invoiced prior to 6th June and we were assured payments would be 1 month in arrears. Or does this only apply once all the testing etc has completed? Surely that must also be close?

[blackgold00] 08/7/2016 15:49

what's he like

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 15:32

Maybe the BOD know there is no market for the gas at present?

[clunes100] 08/7/2016 15:30

The BoD simply could not wait for the first receipts to come in from the sale of gas, really annoying.

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 15:22

I wonder where Mr 2p has gone ;)

Bad timing or what, or was that a final push to pump the shares prior to the placing?

[vike1] 08/7/2016 15:15

This co will live and die with Ruvuma drilling success. There will be volatility in s/t and will prob be flat for the summer.

The difference here is the placing is via a strategic investor that won't be trading shares (admittedly I don't know details of big/ukog deals).

AEX has traded at a huge discount due to financing worries. Hopefully this removes part of that.

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 15:11

Peter,

Read the prospectus. They cannot use the cash on anything other that NT-2 and NT-3.

I still ask why not raise enough to drill NT-2, then in the success case raise more as this would have avoided dilution.

What this now means if NT-2 fails we are again up shoats creek without a paddle

[greyingsurfer] 08/7/2016 15:06

Good, funding secured. We can move forward.

I'm not sure why anyone is surprised or upset by this. Funding was needed, and has been for a while. They should now have enough cash to move Ntorya forward, as well probably as work on some other prospects. The discount is small.

Any other approach to fundraising would have had costs. Farm ins would have involved dilution too. Loans would probably have been at significant rates of interest, and involved increasing risk.

This may not be where anyone would have hoped to be a couple of years back, but starting the in the real world, where we are, it's a reasonable outcome.

Peter

[kevjones2] 08/7/2016 15:02

Vike, Im not sure why you think a floor has been created for the share price Vog and Ukog have sunk well below placing prices.NOT saying that will happen here but I wouldnt be surprised if it did.

[oilretire] 08/7/2016 14:54

Irrespective of the history, it's not a bad proposal if you look at it in isolation.

Little discount & existing holders get the chance to participate rather than diluted out of existence by the big boys (or assets swiped by bond holders as has happened in several other cases)

Having said that, would have still preferred a farm out, but the industry is in lock down at the moment regarding Capex.

[dan_the_epic] 08/7/2016 14:46

If this BOD had an ounce of credibility and were proud of the deal, they wouldn't try to push this through during lunch hour on a Friday

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 14:41

What's next, they admit they are losing 15% of KN-1 for failure to meet drilling obligations once the Government sign off the Ruvuma changes?

[ngms27] 08/7/2016 14:39

It essentially means that all other options failed.
They couldn't get anyone to farm-in
They couldn't get finance just like I said they wouldn't as they have nothing as security

This is from the BOD that I believe promised NOT TO dilute further.

Now surely they should have drilled the NT-1 Appraisal using a smaller placing and then raised more monies on success IF they were putting shareholders first?

Another awful decision from an awful BOD

[tradingmyplan] 08/7/2016 14:35

ngms27 - you were also warning that Lindi wasn't being extended and that it was clear they'd have to give it up. Not the case at all.

Now, no doubt you have been correct to be negative on AEX but sometimes that negativity can also be as wrong as the bulls.

[clunes100] 08/7/2016 14:33

I was pulled in by this lot once and lost a shed load, had another go but I am now out, might buy back when the price tanks and if I don't then there are plenty of other fish in the sea.

ou only have to look at VOG after their massive dilution, their share price still has not recovered and they are producing.

[joestalin] 08/7/2016 14:33

Why release it on a Friday afternoon though? Were they anticipating a sell off?

I would have expected them to release it on Monday morning.