Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 10/4/2016 09:51

Interesting that Neil Ritson says that the drill is currently onsite, ready to go at no cost.

I'd change the emphasis on that, BB. It's stored on site at no cost. Drilling won't be at no cost! What is important is that it is there, setup costs will be low and start up times will be low. Once AEX have sorted farm out, funding or whatever drilling should be able to start quickly, which eases the time pressures considerably.

Peter

[bunbooster2] 10/4/2016 08:51

Thanks for the link Viking1.

Interesting that Neil Ritson says that the drill is currently onsite, ready to go at no cost.

[warbaby43] 09/4/2016 16:38

Many thanks for that Vike1 and as you say interesting on Ruvuma and it certainly does make one wonder just what is going on with Aminex.

[vike1] 09/4/2016 14:48

Get that gas a-flowing!

www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Tanzania-to-export-electricity-to-Kenya--/-/2560/3151810/-/nm7msa/-/index.html

[vike1] 09/4/2016 14:34

Neil Ritson

[warbaby43] 09/4/2016 11:08

Vike1, a link to that IG Ritson interview would be much appreciated, thanks.

[gpback] 09/4/2016 09:34

Aminex was in focus oil and gas stock, and like Oilex it was achieved ‘first gas’.

[vike1] 08/4/2016 20:45

It is odd to see such high volumes matched by such little price movement.

Might just be MMs reshuffling their holdings amongst each other. Otherwise, with production just kicking off and the stock trading at 52-week lows, why sell now?

Separately, there's a good interview with Neil Ritson on IG today. Talks a bit more about Ruvuma. Sounds like they're ready to farm down independently, but need drilling confirmation from AEX first. Something is in the works.

[1775] 08/4/2016 16:35

Another big volume day - no movement in price.I have a feeling that something fairly big is happening behind the scenes.

[warbaby43] 08/4/2016 15:22

el dorado's question is the right one and as I posted some weeks back, it's been pretty obvious for some time that someone is going to be disappointed, AEX, WRL or Orca.

With regard to blackgold's response, this goes back to my question to bg, as our resident Orca watcher, as to the price Orca were getting for the "Additonal Gas".As I recall bg's response was that the figure was $3.62 mcf, .55 mcf above the $3.07 mcf price to be paid to AEX by TPDC, equating at 20,000 mcf per day to $11k pd or $4,015,000 pa

The trouble with that, though, is that the Orca price will presumably be for processed and delivered gas to Tanesco whereas TPDC will have processing and pipeline costs that will certainly exceed that $.55.

If KN-1 gas is, therefore, to replace Orca's "Additional Gas" then, on the surface, it looks to me like it would have to be for non economic reasons - unless of course that $3.62 price of Orca's is also a wellhead price with Songas being responsible for processing and transmission costs.

Over to you, blackgold, for the answer.

[vike1] 08/4/2016 13:00

Agree with all those things ngms (though I suspect debt is closer to $8m after some repayment and servicing). Interestingly, even if we lose all of Ruvuma (unlikely), our market cap of c.USD40m with KN-1 as our only asset, is still cheap on a go forward basis at 3-4x net income.

What's happened to Madagascar Oil is terrifying, and could happen to us, but with production coming on stream, we should be able to avoid their fate.

[ngms27] 08/4/2016 12:42

Well they need to raise $20m plus to meet the Ruvuma obligations and pretty damned soon if they don't get a farmout this month with an agreed work schedule.

They also have to pay the loan off shortly or renegotiate. This must be $11m by now.

KN-1 gas is a drop in the ocean all things considered, I now think it inevitable they will lose some of KN-1 for failing to meet the Ruvuma license obligations and potentially lose Ruvuma.

[vike1] 08/4/2016 12:24

Some form of financing is inevitable, though not necessarily a placement (though the thought is a worry). To say it's a certainty is just scaremongering.

The SOLO cash allows us to service debt and pay bills. However, there is a clear disconnect between our finances and drilling plans.

JB said this week that we plan to complete Ntorya 1, 2 and possibly 3 by year-end. Let's say we COULD raise via a placement, we're only on the hook for 75% of costs. SOLO would need to pay the rest. They're breaking the bank to pick up the KN-1 assets and couldn't do it.

The only plan in place is for a farmout, with an outside chance of RBL. A major placing would be irrational, if even possible.

[blackgold00] 08/4/2016 12:08

el dorado, its my belief that KN gas could/will replace some of the "Additional gas" that Orca are currently supplying to Tanesco under the PGSA agreement and which is I believe about 30 mmcfd, this is noted in Orca's report as a potential risk to their continual production rates.

page 9 under FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS noting risks



"risk that additional gas volumes available to the NNGIP (National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project) from third parties will replace all or a portion of the volumes currently nominated by TANESCO under the Portfolio Gas Sales Agreement (“PGSA”) until additional gas-fired power generation is brought on-stream to consume all of the Company’s available gas production;"

page 11 NATURE OF OPERATIONS

"The Company’s principal operating asset is its interest in a PSA with TPDC and the Government of Tanzania in the United Republic of Tanzania. This PSA covers the exploration, development, production and marketing of certain gas from the Songo Songo Block offshore Tanzania."

"The PSA defines gas from the Songo Songo field as “Protected Gas” and “Additional Gas”. The “Protected Gas” is owned by TPDC and is sold under a 20-year gas agreement (until July 2024) to Songas. Songas is the owner of the infrastructure that enables the gas to be processed and delivered to Dar es Salaam, which includes a gas processing plant on Songo Songo Island".
"Songas utilizes the Protected Gas as feedstock for its gas turbine electricity generators for onward sale to customers. The Company receives no revenue for the Protected Gas delivered to Songas and operates the field and gas processing plant on a ‘no gain no loss’ basis. Under the PSA, the Company has the right to produce and market all gas in the Songo Songo Block in excess of the Protected Gas requirements (“Additional Gas”)."

"TANESCO is a parastatal organization which is wholly-owned by the Government of Tanzania, with oversight by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals (“MEM”). TANESCO is responsible for the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity throughout Tanzania. Natural gas has become an integral component of TANESCO’s power generation fuel mix as a more reliable source of supply over seasonal hydro power and a more cost effective alternative to liquid fuels. The Company currently supplies gas directly to TANESCO by way of the PGSA and indirectly through the supply of Protected Gas and Additional Gas to Songas which in turn generates and sells power to TANESCO. The state utility is the Company’s largest customer and the gas supplied by the Company to TANESCO today fires approximately 45% of the electrical power generated in Tanzania."

[bigsi2] 08/4/2016 11:03

Placing now inevitable

[vike1] 08/4/2016 10:32

I'll go against the grain here a bit and say that I don't think management have been dishonest on activity.

Naive, poorly-worded, mis-managed, yes. I don't believe they've been willfully deceitful though.

Despite this Board's anathema towards referencing WRL, they are a good yardstick. It's taken them much longer than expected to get fully on stream. And since finally doing so, their share price has laid an egg.

We're an out-of-favour stock, in an out-of-favour industry, in an out-of-favour market. And guess what, our share price stinks.

From mid-year, we'll be trading at 3x net income. That sounds like good value.

If you've lost faith in management, that understandable. But if that's true, you're wasting your time sticking around here.

[ride the wave 1] 07/4/2016 20:24

Leg is getting re-rated and the fundamentals are rock solid . Transformational news is due this month so read through the rns and make your own mind up because it will multi bag imho

Watch this CEO interview from 3 weeks ago :-



GLA

[blackgold00] 07/4/2016 16:48

A placing, how much and at what price, $10 mil @ 1.10 - 1.20 an extra dilutional billion shares aprox ?

The current share price weakness after the resent good news would seem to indicate the market is anticipating a placing, but some how the timing doesn't seem right to go to the market to raise funds just yet.

We might well have the landmark GSA and first commissioning production, but to sale the Aminex story and give confidence to the market, they still need to established the commercial production rates and complete and make public the forward work program along with, those essential agreements needed with the TPDC on the future Ruvuma license drilling commitments and or relinquishments.

So maybe the share price weakness after the start up production news, might well be the market demonstrating that Aminex has a need to raise funds, but a misconception on the timing and possibly the method.

[impvesta] 07/4/2016 16:26

"blackgold00
7 Apr'16 - 15:50 - 56167 of 56169 0 0

do I smell a placement in the air?"

Might not be a bad thing. Get the balance sheet sorted out once and for all.

[last throw] 07/4/2016 15:54

blackgold - I have an awful feeling that you could be right.

LT

[kevjones2] 07/4/2016 15:51

You're welcome, LFDKMP. When I had hundreds of thousands of shares I called it honestly - good or bad. The problem now is that when things are good and a person calls it good they're being positive and honest. But when things are bad and they call it bad they are being a de-ramper, negative, even dishonest. Blind commitment to an investment clouds some peoples' judgement.

For example, if I had a friend who gave me incorrect important information that affected my life 3 or 4 times, I would no longer trust them. The current CEO of Aminex has given incorrect important information over 23 times in RNS, interviews and video clips. That his competence is even up for debate is ridiculous. The market's reaction to the usual 'transformational news' makes that painfully honest.

That said, the market should act positively AFTER the first cheque is received and more so after the second, and so on. After many, many years of under-achievement and now after 2 and a half years of incorrect statements Aminex needs to build trust with the markets. They may well do it under the current CEO simply by default but they would stand a better chance with a change of CEO. I think that's a fair comment.

[blackgold00] 07/4/2016 15:50

do I smell a placement in the air?

[lfdkmp] 07/4/2016 14:51

Thanks, KevJones for your usual balanced contribution.

[kevjones2] 07/4/2016 14:22

LFDKMP, yesterday you were looking for the likes of me to find something negative to say despite the fact that I hadn't made a serious post here in weeks. Now you're behaving very negatively when you ask:

"What does it need to get a consistent rise in the share price in these markets?

.........and please don't answer "a different share" :-)"

I would suggest "a different CEO". The market obviously does not trust the leadership and the reasons are mindnumbingly obvious to anyone who can look at the CEO's history dispassionately. It has been nothing short of atrocious. Even with money coming in (if it does) the share price will continue to not get a consistent rise until there are changes at the top. Mind you, I've only been saying that for over two years now. In Aminex time that's about a month.