Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[blackgold00] 12/6/2015 11:31

so you agree on there's plenty of capacity then, so its all about the demand now. well you know and I know that first of all, you need to prove that the quantities of gas is there, then demand will naturally follow, that's just the nature of things. the demand is building fast in Tanzania ngms.

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 11:15

It's not the capacity of the Gas processing trains, it the demand...

If M&P/Wentworth are meeting all the demand then everything else isn't required.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2015 10:46

ngms, "Catch 22, they will drill and supply if they get the payment guarantee."

you are talking about Orca now and not Wentworth, think what you are saying please

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 10:45

I agree production could come within a month.

However the payment guarantee is very sticky. How will this be underwritten given it's a Government who might not be paying?

Thus I personally think 2016 is more realistic.

Heck I want my payday so next month would be great but I'm just not getting that vibe.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2015 10:42

thanks greyingsurfer

[edgein] 12/6/2015 10:42

From the latest RNS that sounds a lot closer than first production in 2016 to me. The new plant being built specifically for KN and any production close to Songo songo is on schedule and we're now heading into mid-2015.

"As previously announced, the Company expects to produce first gas from Kiliwani North into the new Tanzanian regional pipeline in mid-2015 based on advice received from the Tanzanian authorities.First production is dependent on final commissioning of the new pipeline and completion of the processing plant on Songo-Songo Island, which is currently on schedule, and the signing of the Kiliwani North Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA"). The GSA is complete except for the finalisation of the payment protection clauses and guarantees."

Pretty significant step when it occurs as JonnyT suggests, AEX has waiting many many years to get production and revenues from KN and now it looks as if its within spitting distance.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 10:41

Catch 22, they will drill and supply if they get the payment guarantee.

Two ways of looking at the same RNS, your way and my way. My way is the correct interpretation ;)

[greyingsurfer] 12/6/2015 10:39

I have stated that M&P and Wentworth have been asked by TPDC to be able to meet the envisaged demand IN FULL over the next three years for the new pipeline. This is in RNS's issued by Wentworth.

No it isn't. M&P have contracted for 80mmscfd, with an option to raise that, which was apparently requested by Tanz. However, M&P have made clear they can't supply more without additional drilling. 80mmscfd is not enough to fill short term demand. Demand will be well over the optional 140mmscfd by the time they are in a position to produce it. By then, with the additional power stations complete they'll be crying out for the Ntorya gas too :-)

Peter

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 10:38

You have just supported my post!

I suggest you re-read

[skinwalker] 12/6/2015 10:23

See! I thought so. My post of yesterday did the trick. The share price is rising as now we know the GSA is a myth and doesn't exist, we're no longer waiting for the stupid thing.
Expect the share price to soar from here

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 10:18

TANESCO as of 31/3/2015 owe Orca $56.2 million but for the past three months have paid for the gas consumed.

AEX simply have to be paid on time every time to keep the lights on.

[bunbooster2] 12/6/2015 10:05

Non payment is a serious risk but the Orca debt is actually being paid down with the involvement of the world bank. Billions is being spent in Tanzania on gas infrastructure. If they are unable to get gas in to the pipeline due to incompetence at paying then the country will continue to waste a billion a year on oil and lag behind in development. I can't see that happening.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2015 09:59

no ngms is not a troll, though I think he could be classed as a Philosophical pessimists, at lest when it comes to Aminex.

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 09:49

haggis,

I have stated that M&P and Wentworth have been asked by TPDC to be able to meet the envisaged demand IN FULL over the next three years for the new pipeline. This is in RNS's issued by Wentworth.

This also requires them to add additional capacity via new drills etc.

At the moment the market will be small as the power stations and industrial units that will demand the gas are still being constructed. Thus I doubt that short term the Tanz authorities are really that bothered about KN-1 gas.

The reason M&P/Wentworth/AEX want payment guarantees is because Orca haven't been paid correctly for delivery from Songo Songo. This dispute has been going on for years and Orca are refusing to add capacity via required additional wells without the Government playing ball. To date they haven't.

This is why getting such a guarantee that is actually worth anything maybe very difficult to obtain.

This isn't being a BB troll it's coming from someone who first invested in AEX at 20p per share many years ago and has closely followed them throughout this period.

You can keep your head in the sand if you want to, your loss ultimately.

[ngms27] 12/6/2015 08:41

So Q3 is also now out of the window. I have said a few months ago that 2016 is perhaps more realistic.

[haggismchaggis] 12/6/2015 08:31

The Company's 25% stake in the Ruvuma PSA continues to represent the most significant asset in the Company and its further development is being vigorously pursued.  We look to realise the full potential of our investment in Ruvuma over the next few years as the discoveries made are commercialised and new exploration is conducted.  The acquisition of a stake in the Kiliwani North Development is expected to provide ongoing revenue once gas sales commence in 2015.

[gerryjames] 12/6/2015 08:30

Yes there was, they said..."....Tanzania where first gas sales are expected in 2015." No use of the term inaminute.

[haggismchaggis] 12/6/2015 08:27

Tanzania, Kiliwani NorthIn October 2014 Solo announced that it had agreed with Aminex to acquire up to a 13% working interest in the Kiliwani North development on Songo Songo Island.  Kiliwani North-1 well was drilled by Aminex and its partners in 2008 and discovered gas in a 60 metre column in the Lower Cretaceous.  Based on well test results Kiliwani North-1 is expected to be flowed at a rate of at least 20 mmscfd once on stream through a 2 kilometre tie-in pipeline to the Songo Songo Island gas processing facility, and from there to the newly constructed 36-inch pipeline to Dar es Salaam.Solo agreed in October 2014 to acquire a 6.5% interest in the project immediately and obtained an option to acquire a further 6.5% interest at a later date.  By year end most conditions precedent for the acquisition had been met and the formal approval by the Tanzanian authorities of the assignment was expected in early 2015.  That approval was granted in late February 2015 and Solo completed its acquisition of the initial 6.5% interest through the payment of US$3.5 million.  Solo and Aminex also agreed to extend the option for Solo to acquire its second 6.5% interest to a date 30 days after the signing of a gas sales ("GSA") agreement for the Kiliwani North gas.  At the time of writing the GSA remains unsigned pending resolution of various payment guarantee terms, but is expected to be signed shortly.Independently verified gross gas in place of 45 bcf were computed by Isis Petroleum Consultants Pty Ltd in 2013 and confirmed by LR Senergy in a Competent Persons Report in May 2015.  LR Senergy computed gross mean gas in place of 44 bcf of which 28 bcf have been attributed as best estimate contingent resources.

[haggismchaggis] 12/6/2015 08:26

Note: ISIS report pre-dates the most recent acreage relinquishment and covers a larger pre-relinquishment area of the as compared to the Ruvuma Basin as compared to later estimates.The partners in the Ruvuma PSA are planning the drilling an appraisal wells in 2015 in order to firm up these resource volumes and to commence gas sales negotiations.  An appraisal well location has been selected and rig selection and associated contract discussions have commenced in 2015 with the objective of spudding an appraisal well before year end.  The significant softening of the global rig market in the face of falling oil prices has reduced the expected cost of drilling and increased the number of options available.The recently constructed, Chinese financed, 36-inch gas pipeline that runs through the Ruvuma PSA area from Mtwara to the Tanzanian capital, Dar es Salaam, was completed in early 2015 and is anticipated to be fully commissioned and handed over to the Tanzanian owners during 2015.  Gas is already being produced into the pipeline and as commissioning of the associated gas handling plants is completed the pipeline will gradually increase throughput.  Solo estimated that there is at least 500 million cubic feet per day of demand in the Dar es Salaam area and significant uncontracted ullage is available in the pipeline to receive likely gas production from the Ntorya discovery.

[haggismchaggis] 12/6/2015 08:25

There was a SOLO RNS yesterday with a lot of information of interest to AEX holders.Tanzania, Ruvuma BasinSolo has a 25% interest in the Ruvuma Petroleum Sharing Agreement ("Ruvuma PSA") in the south-east of Tanzania that covers approximately 3,447 square kilometres of which approximately 10% lies offshore and the balance onshore.  The Ruvuma PSA is in a region of southern Tanzania where very substantial gas discoveries have been made offshore in recent years.The Ntorya-1 discovery well reached a final total depth of 3,150 metres and a gas zone between 2,663 and 2,688 metres was tested in June 2012.  Flow testing on a 3.5 metres zone at the top of the gross 25 metre gas bearing interval produced a maximum flow rate of 20.1 million cubic feet per day ("mmscfd") and 139 barrels per day ("bpd") of 53 degree API condensate through a 1-inch choke.  Following the completion of the test sequence the well was suspended as a discovery for subsequent additional testing or production.An infill 2D seismic programme totalling 180.6 kilometres was acquired in April and May 2014 and was processed and interpreted by the PSA operator, Aminex plc.  The new seismic data quality was markedly improved on earlier efforts due in part to close detail to the static corrections to the near surface portion of the data.  On the basis of the improved quality some of the earlier legacy data was also reprocessed with the improved statics model and that data was subsequently integrated with the new interpretations. The operator's interpretation of the new 2D seismic lead to a re-estimation the discovered and prospective resources in the Likonde-Ntorya area leading to increased resources estimates in September and December.  The operators work was subsequently audited by LR Senergy who issued a Competent Person's Report ("CPR") in May 2015.  LR Senergy estimated that Ntorya contains gross 158 billion cubic feet ("bcf") of proven gas in place, of which they attribute a gross 70 bcf as best estimate contingent resources.  Overall in the Ruvuma PSA LR Senergy estimate gross 4.17 trillion cubic feet ("tcf") of discovered and undiscovered gas in place.   These estimates are tabulated in Table 1 below.

[dontsweatit] 11/6/2015 21:45

I was very negative about aex some weeks ago and sold my long positions for a reasonable profit and exit but I now feel it is 50%/50% either way so am now a small long. iam loosing some confidence and feel for jay b he not do what he says.