Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 03/6/2015 17:19

Have you ever heard the song, tomorrow never comes?
We have been looking every morning for the past 18 months for the signed GSA.

Lets hope there is a way TPDC can guarantee payments for any gas given Orca's failure to achieve payments due and Wentworths clause in their GSA. Why didn't AEX just sign a GSA with the same clause as Wentworth?

[ngms27] 03/6/2015 16:49

Duxy, plus cash burn of something like £8m per year...

Basically the BOD have reduced shareholder value on a large scale since floatation.

[duxy786_3] 03/6/2015 16:28

last throw 3 Jun'15 - 08:34 - 52737 of 52752 0 0

Duxy

Firstly, I feel for you over the loss of a good friend at such a tragically young age.

Apropos the dilution/s that ngms refer, i.e. the first at 8p(?) and the last at 1p, have you taken account of these in your calculations?

Would be interested to hear!!!

LT

Thank you for you kind words. I don't read ngms's post as I have him/her on filter. Its scary how many stocks that moniker appears to deramp only to see them go up. Stockologist is another similar moniker and I wouldn't be surprised if its the same person with multiple monikers. Regardless, a great indicator for LTH.

With regards to your question.

On 20th October 2010 AEX had 429,934,711 Shares in issue. The share price was trading around 8.5-9.25p

By my estimates, If nothing has changed, and lets face it, a lot has in 5 years (aside from investor sentiment towards the board), I estimate the share price should be 2.25p based on the dilution that has occurred over this period. So in fact, where we are is correct in terms of the share price However, their not much room to give in terms of dilution. The board need to deliver and to this end, each shareholder has the right to email and ask the board their current plans to deliver the GSA and plans going forward. I will be emailing the board quite aggressively if by a the end of the month, no information has been put forth with regards to GSA.


KevJones2 3 Jun'15 - 08:44 - 52738 of 52752 1 0

Duxy, sorry about your pal.

You have sung his praises as an excellent investor and, reading between the lines, a very intelligent guy. Yet according to you he sold his holding in Aminex.

Again, thank you for you kind words. I believe at the time my friend got the jitters and sold as talks of a placing and open offer was on the table. Fear and Greed runs us all in this business and he was no different. Based on my email conversation at the time his fear seamed to be that there wouldn't be much take up on the open offer and they board may have to go tail in hand with a begging bowl. I dont remember exactly what happened but I dont think he was wrong for selling out at the time. His £33K would be worth all of £7.3K now.

[warbaby43] 03/6/2015 15:51

Perhaps the jumbos made the mistake of tangling with the same villagers who gave the lions so much grief a few months bacvk:



Just as with the lions, though, the surprise is the sheer numbers of jumbos there are in Tanzania despite all the poaching.

[qackers] 03/6/2015 14:00

According to today's Times, Tanzania have lost two thirds of their elephants. Therefore I think you are being a bit harsh expecting them to know where one GSA is kept!

[blackgold00] 03/6/2015 12:52

funny that, I read it as crook as well, must had been something to do with the topic of the two previous posts.

[warbaby43] 03/6/2015 11:47

edgar @ 52739, I would suggest one other positive possibility that might emerge if things, miracle of miracles, do begin to fall into place is the arrival of another 3%+ shareholder. Even if that had to be via a placing it would lend some much needed credibility to Aminex and some support to its share price

[bunbooster2] 03/6/2015 11:43

baby - yeah, I think there has to be at least some read through from the offshore deals. Lots of differences but it's cash money being paid in the basin so we can hopefully get a bit of a ballpark.

[bunbooster2] 03/6/2015 11:40

Last throw - I think you have quite lost your senses. I DID NOT accuse anyone of being a crook. I simply said they were COOKS! Cooking up the share price a storm. What a misunderstanding! Please read more carefully in future.

[warbaby43] 03/6/2015 11:39

BB2 @ 52740, nice to see a billion bucks down in print, although I am unsure whether the Cove situation can be read across. They were a bit partner to a big player like Anardarko with their gas going to a credible LNG project whereas poor old AEX are nobbut a $3 mcf at best captive supplier to TPDC.

On the other hand where the Cove angle will, I hope, come in is if they do stumble across 2 tcf then we might hope to see some share price boosting coverage along the lines of "Is Aminex the new Cove?" on the grounds that a much big player will be required to do full justice to Ntorya and the other Ruvuma PSA prospects.

[last throw] 03/6/2015 10:15

BB

You do and you should be grateful you do but calling people "crooks" leaves you wide open for a libel charge which is what I was trying to helpfully point out not as a censure but as a bit of friendly advice.

It's your freedom to ignore that advice but I do know that Aminex folk read these boards and I have to say that if it were me, for instance, whom you were accusing then I would want to learn your identity pdq but it's your call and, as always, you'll do as you bloody well please!

LT

[ngms27] 03/6/2015 10:11

Any spike in the share price will likely be met by a placing.

I state here and now I will sell up the moment we get a price spike and look to buy back in pre NT-2 drill when the dilution has materially affected those foolish enough to hold.

[bunbooster2] 03/6/2015 10:09

edgar - thanks for the update on your trading plans

[bunbooster2] 03/6/2015 10:08

Last throw - I'm sorry I thought I lived in a free country.

[bunbooster2] 03/6/2015 10:07

Baby - if Ntorya-2 comes in at 2TCF that would be worth over 1 billion dollars reading across from the offshore Ruvuma sales. So, I'd say, conservatively 5-10% would immediately be recognised in the share price. So add 100 million dollars to the current market cap with potential for many times that.

[edgar222] 03/6/2015 10:07

Lots of chatter around about share price increase on GSA news.

FWIW my view is it would be wrong to sell on a GSA news spike.

That's because I think the GSA signing will trigger other news, the financing through MacKay, the rig booking for Ntorya 2, debt repayment or restructuring information.

So unless its a large spike to a level at which I am happy to top slice, I wont.

[kevjones2] 03/6/2015 08:44

Duxy, sorry about your pal.

You have sung his praises as an excellent investor and, reading between the lines, a very intelligent guy. Yet according to you he sold his holding in Aminex.

[last throw] 03/6/2015 08:34

Duxy

Firstly, I feel for you over the loss of a good friend at such a tragically young age.

Apropos the dilution/s that ngms refer, i.e. the first at 8p(?) and the last at 1p, have you taken account of these in your calculations?

Would be interested to hear!!!

LT

[ngms27] 03/6/2015 08:06

Duxy, dilution, dilution, dilution is what makes this unlikely

[warbaby43] 02/6/2015 22:33

"You stated them as pie in the sky dream ones."

When you read closely, I don't think I did, duxy. That would be to assume that I included myself among those many who would happily settle for 5-7p whereas I do hope for rather better than that.

I would, however, stress that word "hope" given that the past management performance does not give rise to much by way of expectation and Aminex does have those formidable hurdles to leap before even spudding Ntorya-2.

[duxy786_2] 02/6/2015 21:31

Warbaby...5 years ago I did some serious research in to the region and the success Aminex had already had in their drilling campaign. At the time, Aminex had simply been recommended by a friend, who at the time had put around £35k @ 9pps in to Aminex. I too looks at the figures, agreed with him and would have invested but he got the jitters and sold out. Aminex stayed in my watch list ever since but not forgotton. Sadly, still in his early thirties, that friend passed in December 2014. In the wake of his death, I started looking back our emails and came across the resesrch he compiles and I had cross checked. Based on those figures, I reevaluated and I stated my case to buy here and hold for a longer term. If this works out, then the figures discussed are minor compared to what can be achieved here.You could call it a tip from the grave....but its not something I believe in. He was a great friend and a great investor. Hes research skills were better than mine and eye for detail was renound amongst friends and family. Those figures you quoted were his minimum targets. You stated them as pie in the sky dream ones. Lets wait and see....Good luck,Duxy