Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[vike1] 17/5/2015 13:40

Not material, but interesting to see Aminex quoted in Orca's 2014 Annual Statement (page 14). Seems consistent with what we've heard elsewhere. An interesting report in terms of learning more about how Tanzania operates, available via link to Sedar, on their website.


Access and development of infrastructure (f)
The Company is able to utilise the Songas infrastructure including the gas processing plant and main pipeline to Dar es Salaam. Access to the pipeline and gas processing plant is open and can be utilised by any third party who wishes to process or transport gas. Ndovu Resources Limited, a subsidiary of Aminex
PLC (“Aminex”;), with support from TPDC and MEM, had previously indicated that it wished to tie into the gas processing plant on Songo Songo Island and sell up to 10 MMcfd from its Kiliwani North field. Aminex announced in in 2014 that it had agreed commercial terms for a gas sales agreement with TPDC which
would provide for gas from Kilwa North to be tied in to the new National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project (“NNGIP”) facilities on Songo Songo Island and not be connected into the Songas facilities. Songas is not required to incur capital costs with respect to additional processing and transportation
facilities unless the construction and operation of the facilities are, in the reasonable opinion of Songas, financially viable. If Songas is unable to finance such facilities, Songas shall permit the seller of the gas to
construct the facilities at its expense, provided that, the facilities are designed, engineered and constructed in accordance with good pipeline and oilfield practices.

[pj 1] 17/5/2015 13:36

haggismchaggis 17 May'15 - 12:52 - 52501 of 52501 0 1

Yes Blackgold, PJ is bitter having sold out at a big loss and appears to only be back here to attack AEX with fanatical comments, whilst pumping the stock he's loaded up with, SOU. If he really wanted answers to his ridiculous questions he would email AEX instead of posting those ridiculous questions on here. His agenda is obvious so his comments are best ignored IMO.
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1) Not bitter at all. Refer to previous posts where I have wished holders good luck and given 'well done' when share price has risen
2) After doubling last year I have no losses in AEX, certain respected posters on here are well aware of that
3)fanatical? Please give examples.
4)pumping what stock?
5) SOU is a small position up >+100%, initial position held for over 9 months. They are well on the way and FUNDED to produce Gas from their Italiandiscovery. Mnagement are strong and respected and very credible. AEX must be drooling at the mouth.
6)My 'ridiculous' questions as you refer to have been put to AEX in writing, verbally and via 3rd partys. Nil response to me or yet the 3rd partys
7) Unlike you I have no current agenda with AEX
8) If you did the slightest bit of unbiased research you would very easily discover that I have attended x2 AGM's, have visited the 'offices' of AEX, and was in regular contact and communication with AEX before the recent communication silence
9) All the above has been documented including on this thread
10) It is your right to ignore me and any other communiciations. However, you need to be sure of your facts before posting. Your lack of research or balance view clearly indicates a very nervous unresearched long position. Maybe you are just a gambler rather than an Investor?
11) I am NOT short of AEX, nor do I plan to be.
12)As you ask, If I wanted to 'PUMP' a stock it would be PEL Paragon Entertainments with a 12 month and 5 year view, expecting some volaitility around results in a few weeks time. Unlike you I have done a serious amount of research there, including visiting PEL, their customers and attending AGM's. Unlike AEX their management are open, communicative, have a clear defined plan that relates to common sense and are not reliant on the luck of the drill bit. Neither have they yet to waste shareholders cash with ill timed and ill judged Business decisions of the like which have plagued AEX for a decade? Neither are they relaint upon political decisions and will be capable of raisning further funds when required. Many thanks for asking and enquiring.
13) Good luck to all AEX holders and indeed to any PI in any Company, we sure need it, I have met in person quite a few over the last 4 years.
Maybe you could post x1 piece of research that you have undertaken in isolation and posted here. For clarity an 'opinion' does not count, especially a worthless one.

Ends.

[haggismchaggis] 17/5/2015 12:52

Yes Blackgold, PJ is bitter having sold out at a big loss and appears to only be back here to attack AEX with fanatical comments, whilst pumping the stock he's loaded up with, SOU. If he really wanted answers to his ridiculous questions he would email AEX instead of posting those ridiculous questions on here. His agenda is obvious so his comments are best ignored IMO.

[blackgold00] 17/5/2015 10:25

warbaby43, "Raising the question, is it Orca who are stiffing AEX by declining to sign on the dotted line"

I don't think so warbaby, the fact that if Orca doesn't sign, it will not stop Aminex from signing and agreeing TPDC to buy Aminex's gas via the new processing plant, plus we are told all negotiated but waiting on payment protection.

Orca's current PSA allows them to use the old existing gas possessing plant and pipe-line net-work, and at present they can not produce enough gas from Songo Songo to meet the full capacity of the old plant, (Orca are producing 91mmscfd from Songo Songo and the old gas-plant capacity is 102mmscfd).

So until Orca redevelops Songo Songo by working over the old wells that have been taken off-line and drilling new well, there is no spair capacity for the new processing plant and pipe-line. so really, at the moment there's no need for Orca to sign any thing.

I think Orca will start to come under financial pressure if in the near future they also have to suspend the SS-4 well which at present is being monitored for corrosion and any loss of production comes out of their share of what is called the additional production, that which is produced over and above the 45mmscfd of protected gas.

In my mind Orca have been playing hard ball with TPDC over the years, but if Orca does not get that funding in place now and get those wells worked over to stop the decline at Songo Songo, then TPDC could get the upper hand.

[warbaby43] 17/5/2015 07:50

"‘A Gas Sales Agreement has been negotiated and is passing through government approval stages. The agreement is part of a larger commercial transaction with neighbouring producers who will use the same facilities."

Raising the question, is it Orca who are stiffing AEX by declining to sign on the dotted line. As I recall, relations weren't exactly chummy following the fall-out over the terms of access to the Orca processing plant for Kiliwani gas, and AEX's 31st July Argo difficulties aren't exactly a secret. Not as if Orca wouldn't be an interested party in the event of AEX's demise - unlikely though I believe that is.

[jacks13] 16/5/2015 11:48

From the 2014 Annual Report:

'Going concern
The Directors have given careful consideration to the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern. During the year ended 31 December 2014, the Group reached agreement with Argo Capital Management (Cyprus) Limited, representing the provider of an $8 million loan facility (the ‘Argo Loan’) (see Note 21), to extend the scheduled repayment date of this loan to the end of July 2015. Based on current cash flow projections, the Group will not be in a position to repay the balance of the loan, (estimated to be approximately $7.8 million including interest and redemption premium and after actual and expected capital repayments since 31 December 2014), in full on the due date or meet its operational and capital expenditure planned for 2015 and 2016.
However the Directors have taken into account that in February 2015 the Group completed the partial sale of its interest in the Kiliwani North Development Licence, selling 6.5% for $3.5 million, of which Aminex applied net proceeds of $3.3 million to pay down the Argo Loan. Under the terms of the Asset Sale Agreement, the purchaser has an option to acquire a further 6.5% for consideration of $3.5 million: the option period is for thirty days following the signing of a Gas Sales Agreement for Kiliwani North gas by Aminex’s subsidiary company, Ndovu Resources Limited. While the additional sale of 6.5% in the Kiliwani North Development Licence remains at the purchaser’s option, the Directors have a reasonable expectation of the option being taken up and the consideration received prior to the Argo Loan repayment date of 31 July 2015 and therefore being able to pay down an amount of approximately $3.3 million from net proceeds of the second sale. The Directors are in discussions regarding the amendment of the terms of the Argo Loan, including the potential extension of the repayment period to enable the balance of the loan to be repaid from revenues from Kiliwani North expected to start being received in the second half of 2015. The Directors are also in discussions with third parties to seek a re-financing of the Argo Loan. The Directors are also reviewing other measures available to the Group, including the sale of assets, deferral of planned expenditure and alternative methods of raising capital to enable it to repay the Argo Loan.
These factors indicate the existence of a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt on the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern and, therefore, it may be unable to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business. Nevertheless, after making enquiries and having considered the uncertainties described above and the options available to the Group, the Directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group either will be able to extend the repayment period of or re-finance the Argo Loan and will have sufficient funds available to it to meet other planned expenditures when they fall due for the foreseeable future. Based on the above, the Directors continue to adopt the going concern basis for the preparation of the financial statements.
The financial statements do not include any adjustments that would result if the Group was unable to continue as a going concern.'

[blackgold00] 16/5/2015 06:44

morning BunBooster, well its a bit like night time for me as I have just finished my shift. yes totally agree with what you just said. night night

[bunbooster2] 16/5/2015 06:03

I would hope everyone is aware of the risk here but there is a very good probability of the share price increasing a lot following the trend from the lows last year.

It looks very likely that there will be a GSA for KN-1 soon bringing in 10 million + dollars a year plus 3.5 million one off from an additional sale to SOLO. It also looks likely that Ntorya will be brought online at some point bringing even more income.

There is a clear risk that Aminex won't be able to meet their loan repayment and drilling commitments and could go bust or lose their best assets. While being aware of that it doesn't seem like anyone would want that. Not the debt holder, not the Tanzanian government.

Let's remember Tanzania spends over a billion on oil imports. To replace that with natural gas will save a fortune for the people of Tanzania. That's the prize here. This transition is being heavily backed by the international community who are providing billions in funds for the infrastructure.

Aminex is on the cusp of benefiting from this and will for years to come.

Everyone should be aware of the risk. Nobody should be investing money that they can't afford to lose but everyone should be aware of the risk/reward here. There is a high upside potential.

[blackgold00] 15/5/2015 22:04

PJ1, "p.s. No need to thank me for opening up a communication channel."

what communication channel?

PJ1, you are comming across as terribly aggrieved, i thought you got out of Aminex some time back.

[dontsweatit] 15/5/2015 21:07

In kingdom of blind the one eyed man is king?
Tell them what they want to hear PJ theys all love you then. you be hero
I bet most here were also buying afren afr and gkp on its way down, failing to see truths of the facts. I put this on same level as spl skil ports its as bad as that.....all down to indians

[pj 1] 15/5/2015 20:46

p.s. No need to thank me for opening up a communication channel. Via a distinct and noticeable lack of response I suspect few who post here want to actually ask Jay (BoD) unanswered questions from before?

You live and learn!!

Good luck with the imminent GSA

[jacks13] 15/5/2015 17:23

Extracts from the 2014 Annual Report regarding the signing of a GSA.

Chairman’s Statement:
‘The Kiliwani North Gas Sales Agreement is expected to be completed once it has passed the regulatory process and prior to any gas being delivered.’

Chief Executive’s Review:
‘A Gas Sales Agreement has been negotiated and is passing through government approval stages. The agreement is part of a larger commercial transaction with neighbouring producers who will use the same facilities. The Company is aware of shareholder frustration surrounding the delays in finalising the agreement and appreciates the patience shown.’

Financial Review:
1. ‘There have been delays in the finalisation of the Gas Sales Agreement (‘GSA’) due to regulatory procedures in Tanzania. The GSA will be signed prior to any commercial production.’

2. ‘Negotiations on a Gas Sales Agreement (‘GSA’) remain subject to continuing delays as the draft agreement passes through various Tanzanian governmental reviews but Aminex expects the GSA to be completed and signed in the near future, with satisfactory payment protection terms in place and prior to first production from the Kiliwani North field.’

[larsson 2] 15/5/2015 16:34

More slight slippage today and that recent uptrend starting to tail off into a cliff edge unless good news next week which to me would be "imminent" and good timing.

[warbaby43] 15/5/2015 11:04

Watching the ructions if oil is discovered in a place like this should be interesting:

[pj 1] 15/5/2015 10:49

If Gas is your 'thing', take a look at Sound Oil SOU

[pj 1] 15/5/2015 10:48

ngms. I think they have backtracked on that. I think that was the point 'don't sweat' was trying to make, the goal posts keep changing as AEX have nil bargaining power.

[ngms27] 15/5/2015 09:21

It was previously stated that no Gas would be supplied for pressure testing without a signed GSA

[blackgold00] 15/5/2015 09:19

so no production until a signed GSA, but have we not already and maybe still are supplying TPDC with gas for pressure testing the system? in yesterdays interview what is JB saying from about 40 sec in, ("with out that GSA we are not going to be er er er moving any more and closing the line")? so are we all connected up?

[edgar222] 15/5/2015 09:15

Just note, Jay B in interview said gas flowing back end H1 and then mentioned July which is start H2

[ngms27] 15/5/2015 09:15

Sounds like a plan, but can we wait another 6 months?

[larsson 2] 15/5/2015 09:10

Let's just get that GSA and payment protection and let the share price spike significantly then run as fast as you can with your profits and never return.

[ngms27] 15/5/2015 09:07

How on earth will they get payment protection when Orca haven't been paid properly for ages?

This could be a GKP situation, start production, have the opex costs and get zero back. this turned a 400p share into a 30p share. In the case of AEX it would probably mean the end of the line.