Amiad Water Systems Share Discussion Threads

[celeritas] 07/12/2007 15:19

Must be an order on this, you can buy 750 and sell 15000.

[celeritas] 07/12/2007 14:42

Mike, only 2 mms, how do you get your orders filled?

[mikehardman] 06/12/2007 10:56

north of the 160p S/R level now - clearer path to 180p (+)

[mikehardman] 03/12/2007 13:36

managed to add a couple of small chunks, sub-157p

AFS - aha! - TDW filled my earlier buy order, 157; ticked it up a bit more :)

[mikehardman] 03/12/2007 13:30

on the twitch up again; is this gonna be the time it breaks up properly ?
trying to add (come on TDW...!)

[romi2nikki1] 24/10/2007 22:20

re Skyracer

Please flesh out the imputed 850,000 charge. Sounds v scary.

[romi2nikki1] 24/10/2007 16:32

Who are their competitors? GEC ?

Not an easy stock to hold, given price movements ; often with no news to be had!

[mikehardman] 24/10/2007 16:31

cheers Nick!

[nickcduk] 24/10/2007 15:44

Welcome onboard Mike. It has been showing decent strength over the last month or so. Now sure what triggered the sharp rise but im not complaining. It looks excellent value versus both its peers and the market as a whole. Good defensive qualities as well. Could do a lot worse in the current market.

[mikehardman] 24/10/2007 15:37

starting to move a bit better now, cleared 148.5p resistance

[mikehardman] 24/10/2007 10:30

long 148
I've been watching for long enough (and was suprised to see the protracted slackness after the good interims in August)

[nickcduk] 12/10/2007 13:11

Skyracer - Sorry for not replying to your post earlier. Ive only just noticed it. I had been on a downer regarding AFS following the pump and dump that took place shortly after they listed. The shares have marked time since but they seem to have got back on track again with an excellent set of results. What got me interested again was their end user markets. Soft commodities are in massive growth phase and AFS will likely benefit from farmers coining it in. That should keep growth strong over the next few years. They also continue to win impressive high profile contracts in emerging markets which are also growing very quickly.

The rating is far too cheap at present. The shares shot up yesterday and have continued today without obvious reason. I wonder if Atorka are back in the market picking up stock.

[skyracer] 28/9/2007 10:35

Hello nickcduk, I have browsed the BB comments since the float. You seem to have had a sudden change of heart over a company which you convinced me earlier was pretty dodgy? There does indeed seem to be something unsettling about their conduct. Stopped me from buying. I am just not sure I can trust their figures, so AFS would need to go lower than 117p currently to compensate for the risk. For these results you can see immediately that the second half is going to be hit by the full financial expense charge of c£850k.

[simon gordon] 30/8/2007 19:32

New Ratings:

LONDON, August 30 (newratings.com) - Analyst Oliver Wynne-James of Panmure Gordon maintains his "buy" rating on Amiad Filtration Systems Ltd (ticker: A5F), while raising his estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from 155p to 165p.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has reported robust 1H07 results, with 68% PBT growth and 24% revenue growth. Turnover growth was solid, aided by a distinct recovery in the irrigation market, across all of Amiad Filtration Systems' territories, excluding East Asia, the analyst says. The company is expected to post 2H sales of $24 million, Panmure Gordon adds. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been raised from 9.4p to 10.3p and from 10.8p to 11.0p, respectively.

-----

EPS forecast is surprising.

[nickcduk] 30/8/2007 13:15

Brief comment from Citwire:-


Panmure reiterates hold DSG International (170p target) and buy Amiad Filtration (raising the price target 165p from 155p), Premier Foods (375p target), Serco (500p target) and Maxjet Airways (200p target).

Panmure seem to be playing very cautious with AFS after being very badly bitten in the past. I guess that minor upgrade has muted any further movement today. I don't expect it to have too much of an effect over coming weeks though.

[nickcduk] 30/8/2007 09:49

Simon,

I pretty much agree with your comments. It is in a sweet spot at the moment with environmental regulations tightening and also third world development continuing rapidly. Farming is having an exceptional time of it of late and is therefore in a position to invest in irrigation systems as well.

The problem AFS have is with their credibility. If they put out another positive set of results I would imagine that will undo the damage that has been done previously. I think 15-20 times earnings isn't unreasonable and therefore about 200p is about right.

Atorka have brought at much higher levels and it wouldn't surprise me if they add more aggressively to their position following todays results. Im hoping for a multi day move higher as institutions pick up on the story and build a position accordingly.

[simon gordon] 30/8/2007 09:48

Key passage from the Interims:

Outlook

The market for Amiad's products continues to expand with greater global
investment in water infrastructure. Specifically, there is increasing investment in the municipality area (waste water, desalination and potable water) due to stricter restrictions and regulations being introduced worldwide.

These positive long-term trends underpin Amiad's prospects. The Company has
entered the second half of 2007 with an order volume and backlog which is
substantially higher at this stage than at the corresponding time last year.
This gives the Company confidence of achieving good growth across the business
in the second half of 2007 as compared to the second half of last year. As a
result, the Company expects to report a significant increase in revenues for the full year compared to 2006.

------

I like the offering of end-to-end water consulting solutions and that it looks like AFS are becoming less dependent on Irrigation sales, as water treatment grows strongly.

------

Interim results in Sterling:

T/O - 13.5m
PBT - 1.8m
EPS - 7.5p
DPS - 1.5p
Net Cash - 3m

Market Cap. @ £1.36 = 26m

[simon gordon] 30/8/2007 09:35

Hi Nick

Looks like Amiad are finally coming good.

I note a Water ETF is now available via Barclays but Amiad looks like an excellent way to play the sector. The upside looks like £2.00+.

I am impressed with the spread of sectors AFS supplies and by the Global customer base.

What do you think fair value is?

[nickcduk] 30/8/2007 08:47

Surprised not much comment about todays results. Absolute stunning set of results with earnings coming in around 7.4p. Even if they manage the same again for the second half we will still only be on a p/e of less than 10. That is far too cheap for a company which finally looks to have got its act together and is in a very hot sector. I expect a re-rating to kick off soon.

[wassapper] 20/8/2007 11:41

yes - what did money week say? Must look out a copy

[chagzuki] 13/8/2007 00:30

Mentioned in the Moneyweek feature on water this week. Is anyone here still in this?

[tyson4] 18/5/2007 09:39

dorisken - The volume has come in a few very big buys. There was another @ 140p reported c. 17.30 pm yesterday, so easy to miss.