Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Amerisur Resources LSE:AMER London Ordinary Share GB0032087826 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -2.56% 19.00p 19.25p 19.50p 19.75p 19.25p 19.75p 1,657,361 16:35:13
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 38.2 -23.8 -1.9 - 230.51

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Date Time Title Posts
05/7/201715:15Amerisur Thread - the one that welcomes any comment and not just blatant ramping47,903
13/2/201714:08Amerisur Resources - a new dawn24,240
26/4/201508:30Amerisur - Voting at the 6 May 2015 AGM-

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Amerisur Daily Update: Amerisur Resources is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AMER. The last closing price for Amerisur was 19.50p.
Amerisur Resources has a 4 week average price of 18.75p and a 12 week average price of 14.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 30.25p while the 1 year low share price is currently 14.50p.
There are currently 1,213,205,768 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,344,143 shares. The market capitalisation of Amerisur Resources is £230,509,095.92.
al101uk: It's the discount rate :-) "I have been number crunching all morning and keep coming back to a fair value right now of 46p so I'm not sure why the share price should be trading at such a discount" I actually stopped bothering to value the company when we got below 20p for exactly the same reason, seemed little point when I couldn't imagine a world where the discounted value of future cash flows justified the drop in price.... I don't see the point of valuation if you can't get a sensible assessment of current price as baseline. No intention of restarting until there is new information. Likely to be the publication of the reserves report or a good indication of what we have at CPO-5. All the negatives I was using to stretch down to 20p appear to be clearing and sentiment seems to be improving, hopeful that fadilz model is now broken because that would indicate to me that the company has turned a corner and shortly thereafter sentiment should do the same and from fadilz current target not being met, we should quickly accelerate past it. Why? Because his model is relative and has tracked share price performance over a period of time when sentiment has been unremittingly negative, somewhat justified by the businesses performance and the general macro environment. Basically investors have only been willing to pay the bear minimum for the shares and in general that view has been re-enforced as we headed down. The first step away from the model should be the business performing better than the share price would suggest, as fadilz model looks at the business and ignores sentiment that should result in fadilz predicted share price being in excess of where we are (the situation he now finds himself in). The next step is for the share price to catch up with the business and then, as sentiment improves, overshoot his target price and head towards what in my view is a more reasonable valuation for the company. No offence Fadilz ;-)
fadilz: Big7Time, my argument is simple, but has worked pretty well over the past 3 years. I work out the % *change* in NPV vs a previous time, and simply say that if all other things are equal, then share price should change by the same amount as NPV. So if NPV is up 10% now vs then, then share price should be up 10%. My baseline is Aug 2014, when I first became interested in AMER, and share price was 60p Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp 32.8__________6769__________62_____________13_______1,088____1.00___60.0 reserves 32.8, pumped at 6769 barrels per day will last 13 years. Annual profits = 365 * 6769 * 62, and if this is repeated for 13 years, you end up with NPV of 1088. My calculations in previous posts simply repeat this calculation for currently known reserves, barrels per day and netback (profit) and then predicted share price is xBase * 60. (xBase = NPV now/1088) Very simple and crude, but has worked over time. It also allows me to evaluate possible future scenarios using reserves, production rates and profits, to assess possible upsides. Quick easy and has worked to date. It has allowed me to argue for example that our fall from 60p in 2014 is down to the fall in profits per barrell (ie the oil price, mitigated by OBA cost savings). I have just made some predictions, regarding current value - lets see how that plays out. :o) Where al101uk and I differ is that he derives estimates of value by more detailed calculations from fundamentals (tax rates, etc), and attaches a probability to future outcomes, which he then takes back to a fair present value. Now, as well he is investigating short term TA effects like momentum and sentiment. I simply say if x comes off, the value would be y. Also, any component of a model has errors attached, and very detailed calculations have more opportunity for error. As long as I can see a reasonable chance of x happening, I see reason to hold. I see 30p+ this year as good reason, and if 20k production materialises we will all be very happy. My big assumption is the 'all other things remain equal' argument that whatever else apart from NPV that affects the share price remains constant. But as I say, this has worked until now. 20p was in line with 4k production, we should now be 50% higher.
charlieeee: Well, we simply do not agree on the cause of the share price under performance. As far as I am concerned, RH selling has been minimal during this period when the share price cratered and it was squarely down to production: that is why, when we finally see production trending up, the share price does likewise The POO point of view is harder to dismiss and certainly holds good over the long term, but only if AMER has a decent level of production. There should have been a rerate on the OBA completion as such a step change in the profit per barrel should have reflected in the SP, but that seems to have been largely eradicated by uncertainty re the cap on volume and was probably impacted by the RH selling which was heavy at that time. Going forward, it will be production (and reserves when these are reported) that will drive the share price back up and with decent cash flow, they will be able to accelerate the drilling program.
fadilz: I'm sticking to my model, and predicting 36p end of year, and high 20s near term. Below I argue that the model has held up well for the 16p share price, allowing for uncertainty about real production. The model predicts high 20s near term, and mid-30s end of year, provided 7k production materialises. I'm assuming production costs for Plat, Plat-N, and CPO-5 to be $15, $30, $25 respectively. $45 OIL AND 4600 BB/D PRODUCTION --------------------------------- Area___Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp Plat___25.0__________3600__________30_____________19_______330______0.30___18.2 Plat N_7.8___________1000__________15_____________21_______47_______0.04___2.6 Predicted share price 20.8p (=18.2+2.6) These were the actual figures, so the real share price was 5-6p lower. But given the production outages, and lack of transparency from the company, I don't think the model is too far out - and clearly enough people are in the know to make a difference to the share price. Looking ahead to promised year end, and let's say $50 oil $50 OIL AND 7500 BPD PRODUCTION -------------------------------- Area___Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp Plat___25.0__________5000__________35_____________14_______471______0.43___25.9 Plat N__7.8___________1000_________20_____________21_______63_______0.06___3.5 CPO-5__13.4__________1500__________25_____________24_______123______0.11___6.8 Predicted share price 36.2p (=25.9+3.5+6.8) Actually, we are not far off Plat, and Plat_N end of year targets now, so a share price in region of 28-29p should not be far off. Let's see the monthly production figures this week, and how the share price evolves - but right now the model suggests we are very undervalued. (to restate the model: it is based on the change in NPV compared to a fixed point in the past - in this case Aug 2014, when share price was 60p. If the NPV is 50% higher than in Aug 2014, then I expect the share price to he 50% higher also. NPV is a function of Reserves, production rate, and profit per barrel, and as the company updates on these, so the current NPV and hence the share price prediction changes. A number of other factors do affect the share price price, but this method assumes that these factors remain constant now vs Aug 2014)
al101uk: First of all I don't think an RNS advising of the production shut in last month would have had any affect on my buys/sells. I bought before it was likely to be known and haven't topped up since. So I freely admit that it would make no difference to me either way. I don't really care if insider information is involved or not. I don't even really care that the shut in happened, as it's been pointed out it's one of those things in the environment in which amerisur operates. BUT, I wouldn't like to be one of the people who saw an opportunity at just under 20p to pick up some cheap shares not knowing about the shut in while others did. You could put that down to lack of research if you like. ... and I do care a great deal about corporate governance. The idea that the share price falling from just under 20p to where it is today being nothing to do with the shut in is ridiculous. If you follow that line of thinking, which most here seem too, then you have to assume that management knew they were in possession of information likely to have a "material affect on the share price of the company". Not reporting this via RNS in good time is bad corporate governance at the very least! The fact that it wasn't reported is what concerns me far more than the news itself. It's the same across GC companies, KENV was about to be cash generative right up until it had a placing (at 50% of it's then share price), Ironveld has been days away from a financing deal for two different plans with multiple surprise placings and now is "within weeks of being cash flow positive"... really? How can I possibly take managements word for that anymore? (and I have been tempted by Ironveld at 2p). This is repeated behavior from effectively the same management team and it's not good enough. You don't report an issue after it's effect has been mitigated, you report it at the time and let the market decide the likely impact... let the owners of the company decide it's value. Neither is this the first time for Amerisur, how long was the company producing at what was thought to be low levels and being questioned about the capability of the field without reply? As it turns out the wells were producing at 20% of their initial production rate without a word to shareholders until they had been treated. Then there is the bottleneck which was flagged to II's at a presentation with PI's left to interpret a red dot on map. Why don't I sell up and move on? CPO-5 seems not to be priced in. Plat alone, even at current production levels does not seem priced in. I'm an idiot when it comes to Amerisur... I freely admit that. In contrast Alliance Pharma recently posted an RNS last minute on a Friday to tell the market a drug had not received marketing approval and I immediately sold on Monday morning. I'm behaving irrationally, that doesn't mean Amerisur is off the hook. I wouldn't buy another GC company at any price.... I no longer hold any other than Amerisur, I held Ironveld for a period and considered KENV. Forgive the rant.
fadilz: jonnycash1 the share price of any stock is the result of buying and selling - on this we can all agree. My assertion is that AMER share price (resulting from buying/selling), follows movement in the NPV, derived from *current* production, reserves, and profit. This observation has held true for the 3 years in which I have observed the stock. al101uk uses NPV as well, but works from first principles to get an absolute value, whereas I look at *change* which assumes all other factors remain unchanged. The notion that some seller is vindictively pushing the price lower may be attractive to some, but by observation the movement in share price can be predicted from movement in NPV. The movement from 20-21 to 25-26 is precisely predicted by the OBA cost reduction, and +7m reserves from the northern part of Plat, as I posted on the day of the announcement (plat-22). It has subsequently happened. CPO-5 numbers aren't in, but on my assumptions it could add 3-4p taking us to 28-30p, assuming reserves, production, and costs of production are confirmed. Potential for much more over time depending on future plans, and just what has been discovered. There are significant risks but the notion that we are going down the pan is where we part company. Climbing out more like. I see potential for a doubling in share price over the coming year, and a trebling over two - using recent company forecasts.
al101uk: fadilz "my key point is that share price reflects *current* reserves, production and netback" Yes, I agree, at the moment and for some time there has been a correlation, but the share price does not necessarily reflect fair value or the risk weighted value of future returns just because it reflects core net asset value. What your saying is that Amerisur is worth current reserves and production because that's where the share price has been for some time. I'm saying that the share price is undervaluing the company by only using those metrics and that the assets have a risk weighted value over and above that. That value will be realised either when the market decides that it wants to or when those assets are exploited. Your either confusing market value with fair value, in which case I don't understand how you can be investing in shares (efficient market theory) or your confusing core nav with fair value or your agreeing with me that the company is undervalued (assigning value to future prospects over and above the current share price... which reflects core nav). Sorry, where I say core nav, lets call it core nav+ as I don't think the market is entirely discounting all future assets. If your correlation holds 100% of the time for Amerisur then the same should be true for other oil companies and patently, it is not.
colebrooke: Amerisur Resources plc 104.5% Potential Upside Indicated by Cantor FitzgeraldPosted by: Amilia Stone 9th March 2017Amerisur Resources plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:AMER has had its stock rating noted as 'Reiterates' with the recommendation being set at 'BUY' today by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. Amerisur Resources plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within AIM. Cantor Fitzgerald have set their target price at 45 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 104.5% from today's opening price of 22 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 3.25 points and decreased 4.5 points respectively. Amerisur Resources plc LON:AMER has a 50 day moving average of 25.93 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 27.09 GBX. The 1 year high stock price is 32.75 GBX while the year low share price is currently 21.75 GBX. There are currently 1,216,298,876 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 2,461,372. Market capitalisation for LON:AMER is £266,795,036 GBP. Amerisur Resources plc is an independent full-cycle oil and gas company. The Company's principal activity is investing in oil and gas exploration and development in South America, principally in Paraguay and Colombia. It operates through oil exploration and development segment. It operates in Colombia, Paraguay and the United Kingdom.
fadilz: This is a belated response for al101uk, and others, to demonstrate that a simple NPV model is pretty accurate in predicting AMER share price. There is no need to invoke share manipulation, but if anyone prefers that route – that is your choice. Not saying it does not happen, just that it is not necessary to explain the current malaise. If anyone wants to blame the directors for their losses, then I suggest provide a rationale for what they could have done differently to affect the NPV parameters. --> looking at your post just now, al101uk, your model generates similar numbers - so perhaps we agree after all? THE MODEL Take any point in time as your baseline. Work out an NPV using then current profit per barrel, and then current production at a constant rate until reserves deplete. Next, take any scenario of the same parameters (profit/barrel, reserves, production rate) and work out the change in NPV vs the baseline. Multiply share price at baseline by the ratio of NPV New / NPV baseline, and you have an estimated price. Rule of thumb: You double share price (NPV10) if: - You double profit per barrel, or - Double reserves AND production rate SCENARIOS First row is my baseline (Edit: Aug 2014): share price 60p Row 2-3 Current (Production cost $15/b, oil $45-55 ish). Share price 19-25p Last row end 2019 (Reserves?): Share price: 85p Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp 32.8__________6769__________62_____________13_______1,088____1.00___60.0 25.0__________4000__________30_____________17_______351______0.32___19.4 25.0__________4000__________40_____________17_______468______0.43___25.8 40.0__________7000__________40_____________16_______800______0.73___44.1 40.0__________12000_________40_____________9________1,009____0.93___55.6 60.0__________20000_________40_____________8________1,558____1.43___85.9 Disappointing vs outlook 2 years ago, but 4x current is my reason for holding.
al101uk: Why would someone sell at 21p? Assumptions: Oil Price $50 Costs and Taxes $27.25 Admin $11 million Reserves 24 million Production 6200 bopd Fair Value: 20.84p Assumtions Change Oil Price: $55 Share Price: 24p Assumpotion change oil price: $60 Share Price: 27.11p Assumption change Reserves to 50 million Share Price 34p Assumption change production rate to 20k bopd Share Price: 68.7p Reduce oil price back to $55 Share price 61p Reduce oil price back to $50 Share Price 53.5p Reduce Reserves back to 24 million Share Price: 31p All assumptions are cumulative and tax moves with the profit per barrel, I've added cash of $55 million directly on to the the NPV. If we have oil but are restricted forever at 6400, projecting out beyond 25 years of reserves becomes pointless because the discount makes the amounts negligible. So the theoretical maximum reserves worth reporting would be around 58 million barrels. Just for laughs: Reserves: 50 million BOPD: 20k Oil Price: $100 Share Price: £1.29 Without the oil price slump and if management had delivered on what they promised, we could have been there folks.
Amerisur share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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