Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Amerisur Resources LSE:AMER London Ordinary Share GB0032087826 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.25p -1.59% 15.50p 15.50p 16.00p 16.50p 15.75p 16.50p 1,924,258 16:35:21
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 38.2 -23.8 -1.9 - 188.05

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Date Time Title Posts
05/7/201716:15Amerisur Thread - the one that welcomes any comment and not just blatant ramping47,903
13/2/201714:08Amerisur Resources - a new dawn24,240
26/4/201509:30Amerisur - Voting at the 6 May 2015 AGM-

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Amerisur Daily Update: Amerisur Resources is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AMER. The last closing price for Amerisur was 15.75p.
Amerisur Resources has a 4 week average price of 14.50p and a 12 week average price of 14.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 32.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 14.50p.
There are currently 1,213,205,768 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,098,133 shares. The market capitalisation of Amerisur Resources is £188,046,894.04.
harrisun: Eddie. don't see it as farfetched compared to how low the price fell to, so £1 something is viable prediction.Taken long while to knock this share price to its current share price and its back on the way up in mo. £1 before the .17 might seem hard to imagine, but share price should not have been at 17p out lower.That's why my last purchases that are in money are staying where they are, as 1p or 2p on what I paid is minuscule to the potential-even if share price was to return to a 'normal' valuation it would be a start-as shale fails companies like this will be in short supply With CP05 Amerisur are bound to hit their end year bringing them back on track with the markets
al101uk: First of all I don't think an RNS advising of the production shut in last month would have had any affect on my buys/sells. I bought before it was likely to be known and haven't topped up since. So I freely admit that it would make no difference to me either way. I don't really care if insider information is involved or not. I don't even really care that the shut in happened, as it's been pointed out it's one of those things in the environment in which amerisur operates. BUT, I wouldn't like to be one of the people who saw an opportunity at just under 20p to pick up some cheap shares not knowing about the shut in while others did. You could put that down to lack of research if you like. ... and I do care a great deal about corporate governance. The idea that the share price falling from just under 20p to where it is today being nothing to do with the shut in is ridiculous. If you follow that line of thinking, which most here seem too, then you have to assume that management knew they were in possession of information likely to have a "material affect on the share price of the company". Not reporting this via RNS in good time is bad corporate governance at the very least! The fact that it wasn't reported is what concerns me far more than the news itself. It's the same across GC companies, KENV was about to be cash generative right up until it had a placing (at 50% of it's then share price), Ironveld has been days away from a financing deal for two different plans with multiple surprise placings and now is "within weeks of being cash flow positive"... really? How can I possibly take managements word for that anymore? (and I have been tempted by Ironveld at 2p). This is repeated behavior from effectively the same management team and it's not good enough. You don't report an issue after it's effect has been mitigated, you report it at the time and let the market decide the likely impact... let the owners of the company decide it's value. Neither is this the first time for Amerisur, how long was the company producing at what was thought to be low levels and being questioned about the capability of the field without reply? As it turns out the wells were producing at 20% of their initial production rate without a word to shareholders until they had been treated. Then there is the bottleneck which was flagged to II's at a presentation with PI's left to interpret a red dot on map. Why don't I sell up and move on? CPO-5 seems not to be priced in. Plat alone, even at current production levels does not seem priced in. I'm an idiot when it comes to Amerisur... I freely admit that. In contrast Alliance Pharma recently posted an RNS last minute on a Friday to tell the market a drug had not received marketing approval and I immediately sold on Monday morning. I'm behaving irrationally, that doesn't mean Amerisur is off the hook. I wouldn't buy another GC company at any price.... I no longer hold any other than Amerisur, I held Ironveld for a period and considered KENV. Forgive the rant.
al101uk: Market Risk - Elections, Brexit. Sector Risk - Oil Price, Solar, Wind etc. Country Risk - Political climate, terrorism Company Risk - Share price manipulation, Management performance etc. All factors in pricing the stock. Negative attitudes towards company risk have dominated for the last three years and in my view overwhelmed many of the other areas where things have improved. There could also be other company risks affecting the share price (FA's share price manipulation for example). As a result the company has only been priced based on the price it can get for it's oil and only on the oil it has already discovered. As a result of these factors Fadilz is correct, there is a tighter correlation between the oil price and Amerisurs share price than you would otherwise expect. FA is talking symptoms, Fadilz is talking about the results.
fadilz: jonnycash1 the share price of any stock is the result of buying and selling - on this we can all agree. My assertion is that AMER share price (resulting from buying/selling), follows movement in the NPV, derived from *current* production, reserves, and profit. This observation has held true for the 3 years in which I have observed the stock. al101uk uses NPV as well, but works from first principles to get an absolute value, whereas I look at *change* which assumes all other factors remain unchanged. The notion that some seller is vindictively pushing the price lower may be attractive to some, but by observation the movement in share price can be predicted from movement in NPV. The movement from 20-21 to 25-26 is precisely predicted by the OBA cost reduction, and +7m reserves from the northern part of Plat, as I posted on the day of the announcement (plat-22). It has subsequently happened. CPO-5 numbers aren't in, but on my assumptions it could add 3-4p taking us to 28-30p, assuming reserves, production, and costs of production are confirmed. Potential for much more over time depending on future plans, and just what has been discovered. There are significant risks but the notion that we are going down the pan is where we part company. Climbing out more like. I see potential for a doubling in share price over the coming year, and a trebling over two - using recent company forecasts.
fadilz: Hi al101uk, you build your model from first principles, and this is a classical approach. My model is really very simple, and much less ambitious, but I observe it it to be a good predictor of share price nevertheless, and so far. It just asks how the three parameters have changed vs a baseline, and I assume the baseline includes the parameters you mention, which i can ignore. Seems to work, to my astonishment. If by undervalued you mean that future share price will be higher, then we agree. If you mean that the current price should be higher than value gained from *current* parameters, then I say *by observation* no: share price reflects this model to a remarkable degree, and since Aug 2015. If indeed this Rex of whom I have no knowledge exerts such influence over the share price, perhaps he is using a similar model. I'm slightly tongue in cheek here. At any rate I don't worry or bleat about poor management, or evil manipulators - as far as I observe I can model the share price free of such concerns - and this makes me feel I have a simpler explanation, and to see value where others apparently do not. Edit: and for the record I think management are really good. Perhaps on the back of that opinion I should keep all this to myself, but that if you like is my input in return for that of others. Or maybe I get some perverse pleasure from debate. At any rate, the more interesting discussion to me is likely future reserves, production and profit per barrel for the various developments: they appear to determine the rewards for patience.
al101uk: fadilz "my key point is that share price reflects *current* reserves, production and netback" Yes, I agree, at the moment and for some time there has been a correlation, but the share price does not necessarily reflect fair value or the risk weighted value of future returns just because it reflects core net asset value. What your saying is that Amerisur is worth current reserves and production because that's where the share price has been for some time. I'm saying that the share price is undervaluing the company by only using those metrics and that the assets have a risk weighted value over and above that. That value will be realised either when the market decides that it wants to or when those assets are exploited. Your either confusing market value with fair value, in which case I don't understand how you can be investing in shares (efficient market theory) or your confusing core nav with fair value or your agreeing with me that the company is undervalued (assigning value to future prospects over and above the current share price... which reflects core nav). Sorry, where I say core nav, lets call it core nav+ as I don't think the market is entirely discounting all future assets. If your correlation holds 100% of the time for Amerisur then the same should be true for other oil companies and patently, it is not.
colebrooke: Amerisur Resources plc 104.5% Potential Upside Indicated by Cantor FitzgeraldPosted by: Amilia Stone 9th March 2017Amerisur Resources plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:AMER has had its stock rating noted as 'Reiterates' with the recommendation being set at 'BUY' today by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. Amerisur Resources plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within AIM. Cantor Fitzgerald have set their target price at 45 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 104.5% from today's opening price of 22 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 3.25 points and decreased 4.5 points respectively. Amerisur Resources plc LON:AMER has a 50 day moving average of 25.93 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 27.09 GBX. The 1 year high stock price is 32.75 GBX while the year low share price is currently 21.75 GBX. There are currently 1,216,298,876 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 2,461,372. Market capitalisation for LON:AMER is £266,795,036 GBP. Amerisur Resources plc is an independent full-cycle oil and gas company. The Company's principal activity is investing in oil and gas exploration and development in South America, principally in Paraguay and Colombia. It operates through oil exploration and development segment. It operates in Colombia, Paraguay and the United Kingdom.
fadilz: This is a belated response for al101uk, and others, to demonstrate that a simple NPV model is pretty accurate in predicting AMER share price. There is no need to invoke share manipulation, but if anyone prefers that route – that is your choice. Not saying it does not happen, just that it is not necessary to explain the current malaise. If anyone wants to blame the directors for their losses, then I suggest provide a rationale for what they could have done differently to affect the NPV parameters. --> looking at your post just now, al101uk, your model generates similar numbers - so perhaps we agree after all? THE MODEL Take any point in time as your baseline. Work out an NPV using then current profit per barrel, and then current production at a constant rate until reserves deplete. Next, take any scenario of the same parameters (profit/barrel, reserves, production rate) and work out the change in NPV vs the baseline. Multiply share price at baseline by the ratio of NPV New / NPV baseline, and you have an estimated price. Rule of thumb: You double share price (NPV10) if: - You double profit per barrel, or - Double reserves AND production rate SCENARIOS First row is my baseline (Edit: Aug 2014): share price 60p Row 2-3 Current (Production cost $15/b, oil $45-55 ish). Share price 19-25p Last row end 2019 (Reserves?): Share price: 85p Reserves(mb)__Barrels/day___$/bbl profit___#Years___NPV10____xBase___sp 32.8__________6769__________62_____________13_______1,088____1.00___60.0 25.0__________4000__________30_____________17_______351______0.32___19.4 25.0__________4000__________40_____________17_______468______0.43___25.8 40.0__________7000__________40_____________16_______800______0.73___44.1 40.0__________12000_________40_____________9________1,009____0.93___55.6 60.0__________20000_________40_____________8________1,558____1.43___85.9 Disappointing vs outlook 2 years ago, but 4x current is my reason for holding.
al101uk: Why would someone sell at 21p? Assumptions: Oil Price $50 Costs and Taxes $27.25 Admin $11 million Reserves 24 million Production 6200 bopd Fair Value: 20.84p Assumtions Change Oil Price: $55 Share Price: 24p Assumpotion change oil price: $60 Share Price: 27.11p Assumption change Reserves to 50 million Share Price 34p Assumption change production rate to 20k bopd Share Price: 68.7p Reduce oil price back to $55 Share price 61p Reduce oil price back to $50 Share Price 53.5p Reduce Reserves back to 24 million Share Price: 31p All assumptions are cumulative and tax moves with the profit per barrel, I've added cash of $55 million directly on to the the NPV. If we have oil but are restricted forever at 6400, projecting out beyond 25 years of reserves becomes pointless because the discount makes the amounts negligible. So the theoretical maximum reserves worth reporting would be around 58 million barrels. Just for laughs: Reserves: 50 million BOPD: 20k Oil Price: $100 Share Price: £1.29 Without the oil price slump and if management had delivered on what they promised, we could have been there folks.
somnus101: from The Times 4 Jan AMERISUR DIRECTORS SHARE PAIN AFTER INVESTORS ...ATTACK Disgruntled investors in Amerisur Resources have crossed swords with the board over growing concerns about the oil and gas explorer’s corporate governance. Last week the AIM-listed Amerisur, which operates in Colombia and Paraguay, had to slash director share option packages — which were first announced in February — in the wake of shareholder discontent. Giles Clarke, the chairman of Amerisur, who is best known for his role as chairman of the England and Wales Cricket Board and for founding Majestic Wine, has had his long-term incentive plan award reduced from 7.28 million shares to 1.5 million. Nick Harrison, the chief financial officer, has been awarded 1.5 million shares, down from his previous grant of 5.46 million, and John Wardle, the chief executive, has had his LTIP award reduced from 12.74 million shares to 10.14 million. One top ten shareholder said the main concern was that, initially, the share awards had been linked to an oil pipeline project that would allow Amerisur to transfer oil to the coast at a much lower cost but which had fallen behind schedule. “I didn’t like the LTIP at all and I am very glad to see that they have made a significant alternation,” he said. “The share options on the pipeline project were almost bordering on outrageous. Management have promised that this pipeline would ready for the past year and they have not even been able to start it yet. They have been overly optimistic on timing. “It also didn’t help that this has all coincided with a fall in the oil price and Amerisur’s share price, which hasn’t put people in a good mood.” Another investor said: “This is not a badly run company. John Wardle is running a very good shop, but there is some concern about the influence of the non-executives. Stephen Foss only joined in January and his first course of action was to award a very generous share option scheme, which the company has now had to row back from.” Several retail investors have also expressed unease about the remuneration packages for the non-executives, such as Mr Clarke, who was paid $357,000 last year. Amerisur also paid Westleigh Investments Holdings, a company in which Mr Clarke and Mr Harrison have an interest, $159,348 for rent for the group’s head office in Cardiff and accountancy and other services. Mr Foss, the senior independent director, has embarked on a charm offensive to meet investors. He said that the company was well run with low overheads. “Amerisur has grown rapidly and delivered significant returns since 2007, when it was a small, loss-making company called Chaco Resources,” he said. “On the recent LTIP share award, I have consulted shareholders representing over 50 per cent of the share register and we have listened and acted. The continuing direction of travel on corporate governance at Amerisur is positive and the board looks to the future with confidence.” In the past few years, Amerisur’s fortunes have improved from its “penny dreadful” day as Chaco Resources. The present management team, led by Mr Clarke, Mr Wardle and Mr Harrison, has been in place since 2007. Last year Amerisur turned over $199.5 million, made a pre-tax profit of $47.5 million and ended the year with net cash of $95.6 million. The pipeline project is under way but, because it crosses several countries, it is a politically delicate situation to navigate, which has led to delays. Shareholders in Amerisur include Rex Harbour & Associates, Investec Wealth & Investment, Axa Investment Managers, JP Morgan Asset Management and Hargreave Hale. Shares in Amerisur rose 3p to 28p.
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