Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[blackdown2] 17/2/2017 15:36

Further to Sharesure's comments, it does make you wonder whether the price is being held back pending an 'offer' to take the company private at a knock down price.

[al101uk] 17/2/2017 12:33

The mention of work at PAD 5 may also be indication of a future tick up in activity:

Platinillo-6 1150 bopd
Platinillo-10 1000 bopd
Platinillo-11 1500 bopd

All sitting shut in on Pad 5.

[valentine] 17/2/2017 12:21

As Q, so appositely, reminded us the other day. MG of Chaco's fave song.

[al101uk] 17/2/2017 12:19

OK, putting aside my concerns over our management, I started having a look at our performance, past, present and future.

To start with I went back to 2015 to see how we can expect results to compare in 2016, that didn't make great reading:

The average oil price for 2016 was 15% down on the price achieved in 2015.
Production for 2015 was 4437bopd, compared with the first six months of 2016 of 2642 and a 12 month average at approximately 3124.

Reserves were down, although by less than we produced, a marginal positive, but not really when considered in the context of a current valuation.

So with price, production and reserves all down, I don't really think we have much to look forward to from a historical perspective.

But that was then and this is 2017, more important is where we are and where are we heading:

Well, reserves are likely to be revised upwards by a decent amount, the U sands, an increase in production, more data and more acreage should see to that.

Production has rebounded with the OBA ramping up:

Initial rate from OBA was 1500bopd (Oct)
Av. rate since first flow was 1800 bopd as of November
Av. flow rate by Jan this year was up to 3100.

Having re-read everything I can find on OBA capacity I'm convinced we can hit 5K bopd pre-pump station and those comments were around increasing beyond the 5K.

In December JW commented:

Dec 2016 (John Wardle)

"Also, the Chiritza project continues to be very interesting to the Company and I hope to complete the technical and commercial arrangements in the short term, thus allowing a rapid start-up of the project itself."

Which was after cancellation of the Block 58 deal Petroamazonas was working on and so I have hope that something will be announced "imminently".

And the oil price for the first two months at least is looking a lot more favorable than at any point in the last couple of years. Range bound and stable would not be a bad thing for Amerisur.

So, my conclusion is that the results will not make pretty reading, but I think 2016 was the bottom of the barrel. I think there are lots of deals to be done and lots of potential to be exploited. So I have two valuations...

If I take myself back to my view on management I came up with a reasonable buying opportunity at or around 23p. If I take off my doom tinted glasses and imagine a scenario where management put just a little effort in, then I think we should establish a base at 30p.

My assumptions for 30p are hitting 5k bopd through the OBA
A reserves upgrade to 40 million barrels P2
An oil price of $55 (reduced from $60)
Lifting and transport costs around $15
admin 9 million
Tax around 27% (I can't remember where I sourced this number from).
Current exchange rate
and continuing to truck 1 kbopd as normal (I think we truck more, but couldn't find the numbers).

So there we have it, there is loads of blue sky not priced in and the potential for that blue sky to be fairly close to fruition. The OBA as usual will be a game changer should all deals be executed successfully.

With management as they are it is still all down to that pesky opportunity cost, I've lost a packet on not being able to take a full position on GSK when I wanted too.

I bought more at 23.75p this morning.

[ladeside] 17/2/2017 12:17

Call me a cynic but generally when takeovers are announced it tends to be a surprise and out of the blue so far as us mere mortals are concerned. The fact GC inferred as much in his recent interview, would, if anything, make me think it's not something which will be happening "imminently".

As always, who knows with AMER as they do play their cards pretty close to their chests. The one thing for sure is that we're undervalued at the current price range and it does have that sort of "holding range" feel to it.

[charlieeee] 17/2/2017 12:09

The minuscule volume of trades is hardly indicative of any master plan being executed right under our noses.

The PR machine is cranking up and it has told us to expect a sale to a major: that, of course, carries kudos and one should not ignore the value of bragging rights.

As for saying that we have been told "nothing" we had regular updates on OBA throughput increasing, Plat 24 and the Dec. acquisitions and have just had a presentation which sets out the plan of action on each of the main blocks in detail as well as underlining the overall potential.

The drilling plan still shows the action starting in Q1, albeit at the end.

[meneither2] 17/2/2017 12:00

Considering how long it's taking them to get the bpd back up to 7200, 20000 may not even be imminent!

[valentine] 17/2/2017 11:45

'It is Stanlingrad out there', as my astute German friend said when he took 65p and disappeared to the far East. I can see GC saying cheerio for the last time at the AGM with a wry smile. Ironic maybe, but he has never considered the hoi-polloi as worthy of his time, ever. You wonder why Rex took his money. Maybe keeping powder dry?

[sharesure4] 17/2/2017 11:16

Thwarting the directors' attempts at having more and more cheap options (and for what???) just might tempt the BoD to try and go private. After all, putting together, say, £250m between them and a few friends is not exactly that taxing a problem, particularly if they all thought that they could quadruple their investment fairly quickly. I am sure our Board is above that sort of thing. so there must be another reason why a company which boasted a very busy year ahead has nothing to tell its owners, us, that makes them so reticent.

[valentine] 17/2/2017 09:18

the transport of more than 10 million barrels of oil from Colombia to the Port of Esmeraldas , Through the Ecuador Heavy Crude Oil Pipeline (OCP), and in border matters, the agreement highlighted the progress of dialogues related to several aspects of human mobility as an effective mechanism for the integration and construction of permanent inter-institutional ties between the two peoples.


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[blackdown2] 17/2/2017 08:47

Interesting thought. Maybe just trying to squeeze a few more PIs out.

[sharesure4] 17/2/2017 08:45

Anyone would think the BoD was looking to take this private.

[fsawatcher] 17/2/2017 08:42

there woz a time when £300million market cap would be justified but that when they were doin 10k production

they avearaged under 3k in 2016 at about $40

this years results are gonna be terrible

a company doin 4k gotta be worth no mores than £200m

they got low reserve numbers compared to other stocks so nuffin huge there eithers

pipeline gonna cost more money sortin pumpstation

gotta watch giles and wardle closely coz when management ave to save jobs they do wot ever it take

i say enough now and leave ya in peace.

[jotoha2] 17/2/2017 08:31

Just drop it to 12p and the fun can start again.

[fsawatcher] 17/2/2017 08:28

amer got nuffin goin on for 8 months!

it gonna be like tumble weed around here

thankfully a fire storm of an agm comin to entertain

[fsawatcher] 17/2/2017 08:22

any body fink Rex gonna do a crown bowleven job if giles dont step down

[fsawatcher] 17/2/2017 08:19

23.5p to buy and no one interested

the mm's are tryin to get peeps hooked in but no joy

down to 22p next

Amer puttin projects back not good news coz it mean revenue goin to be under and no cash to pay for new pump station works

wot they gonna do?

placin at 18p to please ii's and get through agm with jobs intact?

[lucyp00p] 16/2/2017 23:52

Well that's good

[bigwavedave] 16/2/2017 21:15

Motley Fool says:

although the quoted OBA export figure is out of date.

[blackdown2] 16/2/2017 18:42

So will you with any luck.

[trotting12] 16/2/2017 16:55

Val,,Mr x and mr y ,,don't know a thing ,,honest !!

[bigwavedave] 16/2/2017 16:01

oilandgas1 -I suspect you'll be able to revise those figures up fairly soon.

[valentine] 16/2/2017 15:33

Tight trading
You'd think they were preparing for another Pee, lord save us. Lingering Death follows, imminently, for those who mention a word of it...

[juuunx2] 16/2/2017 15:27

Patience Lucypop