Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 14:03

Larva -filtered-for being a waste of space.

[larva] 14/11/2016 14:01

OPG Power Ventures Plc

Next Phase; Growth and Income

OPG Power Ventures (OPG) reported full year results with adjusted EPS

in line with our forecasts. With capacity effectively trebled 2016 marked

the completion of the build out phase of the Group’s 750MW of thermal

power projects with a full ramp up at Gujarat to come this year.

Management has reiterated its intention to commence dividend

payments this calendar year whilst pressing on with its expansion into

renewable energy production. With operating cash flow forecast to

ramp up to £75m+ this year and the quick build out schedules of the

new solar projects we believe OPG is in a strong position to deliver

attractive levels of earnings growth and income. BUY.

 Landmark year. The completion of the 750MW programme is the culmination of an

8-year journey where thermal capacity has been increased by 414MW at the OPG

site in Chennai and 300MW at Gujarat. Management is striking a balanced tone

looking to maximise cash flow from existing assets whilst remaining opportunistic

with regards to acquisitions and further renewable energy projects.

 Underlying earnings in line. The Group’s results were broadly in line with forecasts

with EBITDA £50.7m (vs our forecast £50.4m), up 52%. There is a deferred tax

charge relating to the difference between Indian GAAP and IFRS treatment of

depreciation; however, when using the current year tax charge adjusted EPS was

slightly ahead at 7.1p (vs our forecast 7.0p), up 29%.

 Outlook highly positive. The Group continues to ramp its facility in Gujarat with an

average Group PLF 72% in Q1/17; this resulted in revenue of £57m puts the Group

well on track to exceed £200m on an annualised basis. Longer term contracts –

even before the 25 year solar power purchase agreement comes in - provide

increasing levels of revenue and earnings visibility, supporting the commitment to

pay out 15% of net earnings by way of dividends whilst retaining the long term

growth strategy of the business.

 Attractive valuation. OPG is now a substantial business with attractive margins and

growing cash flow. Our forecast 12% earnings growth is underpinned by the ramp

up of Gujarat, with additional 16% in 2018E from new solar projects; a dividend

yield of 2.1% and a multitude of further organic and acquisitive growth

opportunities, we believe the stock to be highly attractive. BUY.

[melf] 14/11/2016 13:57

I think the next thing to watch will be the tutorial video hits on YouTube.

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 13:53

Now up to 6966 - the rise continues - 10k a day for the rest of the week will do me:-)

[webster32] 14/11/2016 12:27

Melf thank for pointing that out.
ihatemms, Ok and thanks for clarifying.

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 12:14

Sorry Webster that was was my mis-intepretation from the video. If I put my neck on the block - I don't believe Aprinta's margin will be anymore than 10% max - hence only 5% maximum to Altitude. But with sales and volumes at Aprinta likely to explode with this new e-commerce solution I believe it will generate about £5m pure profit to Altitude for 2017 -more going forward . Still that's about 11-12p eps for 2017 - not bad at all. I believe with other contracts that are mooted - I think think 2017 eps could be much much more. BUT all IMHO/dyor.

[melf] 14/11/2016 12:12

Webster, I think you should read the posts after that. I think ihmm corrected himself.

[webster32] 14/11/2016 12:06

ihatemms,
In post 765 you say "So now we know Aprinta's margin is 20%". How did you arrive at that conclusion or is that something they've stated? Thanks.

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 11:54

up to 5934 - should get to 10k by the end of the day :-)

5070481 - look at post 826

[5070481] 14/11/2016 11:13

Again what site is telling you this. I am getting nothing up for the product source...

[webster32] 14/11/2016 11:06

Melf,
Ok and thanks.

[melf] 14/11/2016 10:53

We're up to 5,221 websites - I think I better do some work now :-)

[melf] 14/11/2016 10:49

Webster, a lot of guesswork in the spreadsheets.

We understand that ALT shares 50% of GP with Aprinta (although the company has never actually released this info) but we don't know what the average GP percentage is.

It is believed that Aprinta do the printing for 41,000 distributors.

A distributor may have an average of 25 customers.

Then it's up you!

Many on here have used scsw's example of say 1 customer of each distributor raising a $500 order per month. so $41,000 x 500 x 12 = $246m pa in sales @ 1.25 (exch) = £197m. If ALT's share of this was say 5% that would be c£10M in their coffers.

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 10:31

System prob gone down until they create all the sites?

[5070481] 14/11/2016 10:22

nOt getting any result when i go to the product source website. COMing up simply with 1 result. Im usung 10022 for zip, any distance and leaving distributor blank.

ANy ideas why its not showing anything

[webster32] 14/11/2016 10:22

Melf (or anyone else),
If I may, what source material have you built your spreadsheet on? I might build one myself. Thanks.

[melf] 14/11/2016 09:52

Yes, the number seems to be increasing by the minute. They must me running some sort of update to generate new websites for distributors. We are told by scsw that Aprinta handles the printing for 41,000 distributors so it will be interesting to see how many sites are generated here. As has been mentioned already, it's a fair assumption that the initial 627 soft roll-out must have gone well.

41,000 will look much nicer in your spreadsheet SH!

[revoman] 14/11/2016 09:47

Blooming 'eckers 4355 now, this is what is called a ramp-up!

[allstar4eva] 14/11/2016 09:47

Nice find melf. Now we know what the rise was about. Felt like there must have been some positive developments in the background.

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 09:43

Now 4207

Looks like it's moved to available to all scenario. We could see 10k by the end of today? this week?!

[revoman] 14/11/2016 09:38

PS it's gone up to 4195 already!

[revoman] 14/11/2016 09:37

Gotcha, thanks Melf. It wasn't doing the same with my postcode curiously.

[sheep_herder] 14/11/2016 09:31

Personally, I don't care about any more than 4k being signed up. If those 4k pull in $500 pcm each, that's in the region of $3m to ALT in 2017 which is about 9p EPS. That's a mighty fine rerating by itself. But I'm not going to complain if they get to 10k. :-)

[ihatemms] 14/11/2016 09:15

Great news Melf. We can take from that the initial (2 week?)live system assessment has been successful. Should see a significant ramp up towards Xmas - wouldn't surprise me if we have 10k distributors live by Dec 16 YE.