Alterian Share Discussion Threads

[l2user] 02/1/2012 10:35

02/01/2012 by ukcitymedia

[somerset lad] 30/11/2011 09:16

No offer with this morning's interims. It can't be in ALN's interests to let this drag too much as it creates further uncertainty for customers (contrast Arena where there have been two one month extensions to the put up or shut up), so I guess it will be Monday morning.

Equally, no statement that the talks have failed, which implies that nothing insurmountable has come out of the due diligence and that 110p is still on the table.

The interims make interesting reading. Turnover is down 6%. If that is extended to the full year on the restated basis, we get turnover of £36.5m. The ongoing cost base has been reduced to £38.5m with a further £10.6m of savings to come, leaving the ongoing cost base at £27.9m. If, as ALN claims, the costs savings won't affect its ability to sell and deliver products, this gives an ongoing profit base of £8.6m. ...And we're told that ALN has £23.3m forward visibility, which covers 83.5% of the ongoing cost base. ...And we're told that the target is for organic revenue growth of 15% pa. Even allowing for the customary optimism of a management faced with an unsolicited offer, this paints quite a rosy picture. If SDL make an offer on Monday they send a signal to other potential bidders that there's nothing terrible in due diligence; and the interims suggest that there is more upside (even without any synergies) than 110p implies.

[pjb_1972] 10/11/2011 12:19

I'm not sure about it being worth twice as much as the offer. They've just got shot of 40% of the staff on top of redundancies earlier this year. Talbot was the driving force behind development and he's gone with no obvious replacement to take the lead. Doesn't sound too healthy to me!

[cockneyrebel] 10/11/2011 10:34

yep, double whjat I paid too.

Will drift higer up to about 108p I suspect when they'll announce a deal - that's how it normally plays out. Results due out the week of Nov 21 - deal agreed by then? SDL seem keen to nail it imo.

CR

[b1ggles] 10/11/2011 09:54

It's double what I paid for them - but half what they were once worth, so I'm less than happy. Yes, hopefully it will flush out another bidder.

[the shuffle man] 10/11/2011 08:17

I am hoping this will flush out another bidder. In the space of 12 months we have gone from these being a potential t/o target of over £4 to £1.10.

Its great for those of you that have recently got in but not for any longer term holders like me :-(.

[cockneyrebel] 10/11/2011 08:10

SDL had £53m cash at the interims - nearly enough to pay for ALN out of their wallet = 110p in cash is easy for them imo.

CR

[gargoyle2] 10/11/2011 08:04

Glad I stayed put here!

[restassured] 10/11/2011 07:22

Marvellous.

Break out the Dom Perignon.

[cockneyrebel] 10/11/2011 07:19

That will do for me :-)

110p - done deal imo.

CR

[cambium] 07/11/2011 08:15

No results?

[aishah] 31/10/2011 13:44

Panmure Buy with new 105p target today

[gargoyle2] 28/10/2011 21:09

Yep, developing pretty nicely here.

[cockneyrebel] 28/10/2011 16:40

Another rather good day.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 27/10/2011 07:31

Interesting statement. Trying to fend off the bid imo so I guess they think some of the major shareholders might be minded to take it.

£10m cost savings identified which is good but no mention of current trading which I presume isn't good if they don't mention it but then the board haven't had time to turn it around yet.

Will have to see what they say next month I guess.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/10/2011 08:10

Someone got 81k in the auction last night.

CR

[she-ra] 25/10/2011 21:32

George O'Connor says it will need a rights issue. They have seven million net cash!

He did the same with Morse.You have to wonder sometimes about Panmure Gordon.

FAO eater24 : The thing is unlike Laird there has been a great deal of M&A activity in this sector and takeover prices have been on multiples to revenue of between 4 and 10 times.

This is really an industry that big technology companies are taking seriously and there is almost a scramble for companies like Alterian.

[cockneyrebel] 25/10/2011 21:06

I'd like it to come to nothing if all they are bidding is 80p. Directors buying @ 84p and having said this in the recent RNS - "The Board advises shareholders to give the new management team the necessary time to complete the business review, execute its strategy and deliver greater shareholder value in the near and medium term." I think that's a genuine appeal and a good clue that there's far more value here than 80p a share imo.

CR

[eater24] 25/10/2011 20:14

could always do a laird and come to nothing though , you just never know

[cockneyrebel] 25/10/2011 16:38

MM's trying to shake a few out today on a weak day. I'm staying long for more.

Panmure no doubt hoping a few will sell out so they can fill the buys for their 90p target imo.

Directors were paying 84p here recently to buy stock - that tells me they genuinely feel 80p isn't enough imo.

CR

[she-ra] 25/10/2011 13:44

If one looks at how much Teradata paid for Aprimo in 2010 one might think that 80p is a derisory offer that will probably be bettered.

[gargoyle2] 25/10/2011 03:25

Haha, that's funny. Below is what the FT has to say today. Seems Panmure can't make up it's mind what to do. Buy with a 90p target on the one hand, but a great opportunity to exit at 80p on the other. These monkeys make me laugh.
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"Alterian jumped 27.6 per cent to 81p after the website management and marketing software maker received an 80p takeover offer from SDL , which rose 0.4 per cent to 660½p. Alterian, which has delivered a string of profit warnings, said it "unequivocally" rejected the offer which "significantly undervalues Alterian, based on both the company's current position and its future prospects." Analysts were less certain.

"This is a great opportunity for Alterian shareholders to exit," said Panmure Gordon analyst George O'Connor. "We think that the operational plan with the existing Alterian management will entail two years of pain, coupled with a discounted rights issue." He added: "We think that SDL could be persuaded to increase its offer marginally. Indeed, we would suggest sweetening the deal with SDL shares in order to enable Alterian investors to experience some of the upside, should the deal progress. [But] should the bid fail (it is even money), we will be back to a worse position than where we started – ie below 57p undisturbed price and looking at a rights issue."

[aishah] 24/10/2011 19:24

Panmure Gordon maintain Buy rating with 90p target

[cockneyrebel] 24/10/2011 15:52

Buying towards the close here today - perhap a broker note out.

CR

[she-ra] 24/10/2011 12:37

This might bring others out of the woodwork.Maybe IBM or Emailvision.Lets see...