Alpha UK Multi Share Discussion Threads

[ironstorm] 28/8/2013 09:55

Half year results here are again very good. Adjusted EPS of 9.3p for the half and I would expect a stronger second half. Giving a PE of just over 1 with NAV at 224p being 10x share price.

Pros - Income up. Occupancy up. My expectations are that this will continue. Sales above book value. Also positive noises about the state of the economy.

Cons - Valuation down again and LTV up. Debt size.

Debt is down however by a few million and with the economy picking up LTV should start to move the other way.

So it all depends on the refinancing. And tucked away in the Chair's comments this interesting nugget - Alpha Real Trust Limited has indicated its willingness to support the Company in the refinancing of its loan facilities.

Slowly, slowly starting to de-risk.


//ironstorminvesting.blogspot.co.uk/

[the troll] 12/8/2013 18:38

stock's currently trading @ c. 90% discount to Co. level NAV ( of c. £2.40 ps ) & badly needs re-capitalising, ie, they simply can't roll-over the short term debt for ever.

if, say, they raise £40m @ 20 pps then adjusted NAV = c. 30p & discount c. 20%; hardly a 'massive dilution' BUT we simply don't know ( or rather, haven't been told ) how much new capital RBS wants to see raised. it could be much less than I'm assuming ?

[bubble pricker] 12/8/2013 09:54

The problem is whoever invests will take equity at or below the current share price, massively diluting existing shareholders.

[ironstorm] 12/8/2013 08:26

I wonder if this will mean another investment from Alpha. With the continuing improvement in the economy they could be about to make a bigger bet. ALpha have already made a few million investment. And it might help narrow the discount over the short / medium term.

[bubble pricker] 12/8/2013 08:11

Todays news will surely mean massive dilution. possibly below the current share price.

[bbr391] 10/7/2013 17:12

Agreed ,
Ironstorm.
Future and chart looking suspiciously good.For now a nice hold and see.

Gla concerned

[ironstorm] 10/7/2013 07:46

The lenders keep putting off the day of reckoning, the amount of debt reduces all the time. Operationally they are performing well.

The economy is on the way up (for now) which should help all of the above - eve out of London so I hear.

Its a bit frustrating they have not got the debt re-financed but Alpha funding the repayment of the CULS is a big vote of confidence. Plenty more to come I suspect.

[ironstorm] 10/7/2013 07:46

The lenders keep putting off the day of reckoning, the amount of debt reduces all the time. Operationally they are performing well.

The economy is on the way up (for now) which should help all of the above - eve out of London so I hear.

Its a bit frustrating they have not got the debt re-financed but Alpha funding the repayment of the CULS is a big vote of confidence. Plenty more to come I suspect.

[bbr391] 09/7/2013 16:58

Interesting indeed ,
A nice price for now as long as the lenders don`t cry wolf.


gla concerned

[ironstorm] 03/7/2013 09:01

I agree - not out of the woods yet - but looking much better.

And trading was doing well at the last note too. Underpinning the bankers decision I suspect.

[the troll] 02/7/2013 18:12

positive news for the ords. surely ? if they'd rolled over CULS & re-set the conversion price to the current share price ( something I thought they MIGHT do ) I'd have immediately scrubbed it off my 'recovery' list ( on ground of severe dilution risk ).

with NAV @ £2.41 though ( an almost 90% discount ! ) & the lenders apparently willing to support it until long-term financing can be secured, methinks this is getting mighty interesting ( NAI ).

[ironstorm] 02/7/2013 17:07

Another lifeline here with the convertibles bought out and a loan granted with a possibility of being extended well into the future - currently the end of the year.

Alpha too - you would hope they are aware of something we don't.

Share price is perkier too.

[ironstorm] 15/5/2013 11:27

I think you are right. They could put it into insolvency but they would be behind Nationwide and BoS - only just ahead of shareholders.

High risk strategy for them. Better to roll over and seek better terms if it comes to that . . .

[bubble pricker] 15/5/2013 09:51

The main problem right now seems to be the convertible loan. The mortgage lenders seem to be sitting tight have been extending the loans. So if they haven't foreclosed by now they should be ok. But the convertible loan note holders might just demand their money and put the company into insolvency. This is the big unknown.

[ironstorm] 15/5/2013 09:14

Well, well they are still going, here.

Might be worth a punt - even if they went bust they must be able to recover the share price one would have thought.

Worth £2 or nothing I guess.

[toback] 11/2/2013 14:35

Just musing here, a thought occurred to me following my posts above.

If the BoS has already provided for a some / lot of the debt - an aspiring investor - who might see the upside and want to work with AUMP - may be able to buy the debt off the BoS. Am sure BoS are in the market for such shenanigans.

Result BoS get some of their money back straight away and able to write back some of the provisions (more likely offset). AUMP either get a new long term investor or some of the debt written off. A win win all round.

Fingers crossed.

[toback] 06/2/2013 18:31

I meant the BOS have to provide for losses (write some of them off) if they think they cannot get their money back. If they have already taken the hit they might be happier to foreclose.

If not forebearance I think the term is for putting ones head in the sand and pretending it any issues over payback will go away.

Now was I understand we have been paying pack more than we should up to this point which means they could probably get away with ignoring.

Now the BoS end of year was December so they won't have taken the hit then potentially. Depends how much in the poo they are and whether they are desperate for any kind of cash.

[lavagrouch] 06/2/2013 16:12

Excuse ignorance, what do you mean by provisions?

[toback] 04/2/2013 11:19

I think if it was orderly yes and you could go higher (NAV was c300p).

If it is disorderly . . . . the low to nothing comes into play . . .

After todays news who knows. BoS needs their cash - though not likely to get it by forcing administration either - I guess it depends how much they have all ready got provisions for. Lets hope no provisions as they have always paid more than the minimum.

[lavagrouch] 04/2/2013 10:22

If orderly wind-up, would you still stand by your estimates above, 15p / 200+p?

[toback] 31/1/2013 08:07

More likely an orderly winding up I would have thought.

[craffert] 30/1/2013 22:43

any danger of a delisting - save a ton of cost which could go towards debt reduction?

[red army] 30/1/2013 14:09

Beware of MM'S sucking people in to sell.

[toback] 30/1/2013 13:52

You may be correct. Although they are generating cash - which I hope they are hoarding.

Anyway Nationwide saw fit to extend the period again.

Downside 15p or so, upside 200p+.

[vision88] 22/1/2013 02:06

couild well be over valued by 98% so sit back and wait for a nice BIG HUGE DROP .36p per share being generious