Alpha UK Multi Share Discussion Threads

[ironstorm] 04/8/2014 11:21

With the name change I have created a new thread here:

[red army] 22/4/2014 13:54

Added some more today

[red army] 07/3/2014 18:35

Look at ALPH

[the troll] 07/3/2014 18:00

discount to NAV = 58% +, risk = modest. if you can show me another commercial property stock on these parameters, I'll buy it. Thought not....

[asmodeus] 07/3/2014 09:23

I've been in since June 2007 - 111p ! Actually far higher after "adjustments".

[red army] 07/3/2014 08:27

Been in since 30p so prepared to hold for the longer term.

[eezymunny] 07/3/2014 08:22

IF you read my link above red you'll see how finely balanced the situation is. It's risky but with TNAV rising from end Sep to end Dec (first rise since 2006 AFAICS!) and rents holding steady, occupancy increasing slightly, I suspect risk/reward firmly in our favour. They badly need to make some disposals at a decent price and get rid of the more expensive new loans. Will be fun to watch!

[red army] 07/3/2014 08:16

With the prospects of low interest rates for some time and a NAV OF 224p then why not put your money in here.

[eezymunny] 04/3/2014 13:52

Bought these today for the EezyMunny portfolio FWIW



I see you have a certifiable interest here Trevor. I must be mad...

[ydderf] 03/1/2014 09:35

Most of the 2014 property predictions I have read are for a recovery, UBS for example:

"• UK commercial real estate values remain 36% below the 2007 peak, and are up 18% since the July 2009 trough.
• We expect capital value growth to gather momentum in 2014. Meanwhile we expect rental growth to return this year, backed by an improving economic backdrop.
• The initial yield on the UK property sector is 6%, whilst the listed real estate sector is trading at a small discount to Net Asset Value and offers a 3% dividend yield.
• We expect a total return of 8%-10% for the direct real estate sector in the next 12 months."

It is strange to remember that not many years ago, property companies shares sold at a premium to NAV, this usually occurs at that part of the cycle when growing investment values are out of step with the historic balance sheet valuations.

Some say what goes around, comes around. You have to decide for yourselves but if premia return, then the historic AUMP NAV of £2+ would be quite a interesting benchmark........

[ironstorm] 17/12/2013 16:50

I have just got round to looking at this.

On the face of it, I agree it is an asset play.

But lets not forget how well the guys have been doing running the portfolio and income will start to materialise as occupancy levels increase and debts are paid down.

Overall though means we should be out of jail and can focus on realising the full value in an improving market as mentioned in the above post.

Overall a much better position to be in with more to come.

[ydderf] 07/12/2013 10:48

Most attention here has been on the NAV picture, but the income side of things is also worth some thought.

From six months to June 2013 statement:

"Based on the current total portfolio ERV, there is also a potential additional rent of £2.4 million per annum assuming the portfolio becomes fully let and income producing."

With current last reported rent being absorbed by projected interest and administrative costs, the effect of this additional rent, if achieved, on a market cap of £6.3m would be quite significant.

...and this from the statement last week:

" The Company believes this refinancing will establish the Group on a stable footing to enable the implementation of asset management initiatives. It is hoped this will lead to the commencement of the recovery of shareholder value in the Company."

.....suggests that there may be (at least) two ways to skin this cat....

Finally this from Savills World Research on prospects for 2014:



■ Secondary yields, at least on
the valuation-based indices, have
shown less inward shift over the last
three months - only moving in from
10.09% to 10.07%. However, market
evidence indicates that the movement
has been more substantial, and thus
we would suggest that the point has
now been reached when the spread
between prime and secondary yields
is starting to close.
■ 2014 will see an acceleration of
this trend with the investment markets
moving ahead of the leasing markets.
The faster than expected economic
recovery will stimulate a recovery
in the leasing markets, and this will
in turn lead to a decline in investor
risk-aversion and an acceptance of
the merits of good quality Grade B
property across the UK. We also
expect to see a rise in interest in
development funding, with lower
hurdles for pre-letting as confidence in
the leasing markets rises.

[the troll] 05/12/2013 17:20

something to think about; a 10% property re-valuation adds ( or subtracts ! ) c. £1 to / from NAV.

highly geared or what ?

[the troll] 05/12/2013 17:08

with Libor @ c 1%, I make the AVERAGE interest rate on the £65m of newly agreed loans ( ie, RBS loan @ c 4% variable, others fixed @ 11 & 15% ) around 8.1% or c. £5.3m pa. they can just about afford it, I think ( & they'll be hedging c 25m ) but you can forget about dividends. PE = Nil, its a pure asset play. I'm astonished they managed to re-finance without an equity participation; discount from NAV still looks particularly steep @ c 64% & I agree, there's upside for patient investors. not sorry I sold into the uncertainty, but a little disappointed at missing the chance to get back in @ 71p. a watching brief from now on.

[red army] 05/12/2013 16:15

The loans are unsecured so there is a price to be paid.

[red army] 05/12/2013 13:07

The loans will get diluted with the sale of properties and then the NAV will increase with the capital gain so all seems ok providing they can realise some assets in the coming months

[liarspoker] 05/12/2013 11:56

With NAV north of 200p the current AUMP share price undervalues the company by some extent even with the high interest rates.

Ben Graham said a bargain stock is a stock with at least 50% upside. I think AUMP is worth somewhere between 120-150p so it's definitely a bargain stock in my book.

BTW have you guys checked out SPPC ? Another huge undervaluation.

[asmodeus] 05/12/2013 11:42

Well - they've re-financed, but I don't like the look of interest rates of 11% and 15%. Not sure about Libor plus 3%. What is libor these days? Will look it up. But I'm not anxious to jump back in.

[asmodeus] 04/12/2013 13:10

Certainly no news is not good news, I fear.

[the troll] 04/12/2013 13:08

the resolution extending the fund's life wasn't done at BOS's insistence ( or any of the other lenders they're speaking to ) or you'd have heard something by now surely ?

what are William Hill offering on yet another short term roll-over I wonder ? & how many more can they do.

[the troll] 02/12/2013 13:08

it's always the same dilemma, asmodeus, damned if you do and damned if you don't; remember Game Group & HMV ?

at least if you DO you still have your stake money & there are many many other opportunities to consider.

[asmodeus] 02/12/2013 11:41

I've sold most of mine as well, and at the same price, although simply just returning my stake, with no profit. I still hold a few in my ISA at a huge loss, and, like you, Troll, will await outcome.

[the troll] 02/12/2013 11:12

useless RNS;

what you really need to know & they're not saying; are they going with BOS or not ?

if so, we know BOS wants an equity participation ( see Aug. RNS ). OK, the sp's virtually doubled since then & it should be possible to do a rights / open-offer @ c. 50p. BUT FOR HOW MUCH ?? anything over £15m, thus diluting NAV to c. 92p & I reckon you're in trouble ( the market ALWAYS discounts these two-bit commercial property stocks from NAV by c. 40 % ).

too uncertain for me; I've sold @ 53.57p for a 100% turn. I may or may not re-invest once I've read the precise terms of whatever they manage to agree.

[asmodeus] 02/12/2013 08:10

For those that haven't had a chance to see the RNS yet, this is the bones of it:

"The Company announces today that CHIP (One) Limited, CHIP (Three) Limited, CHIP (Four) Limited and CHIP (Five) Limited have agreed with Bank of Scotland to extend the term of the loan facility agreement to 4 December 2013.

The facility is non-recourse to the Company.

Discussions with banks and providers of capital are continuing in order to pursue a further extension to, or refinancing of, this loan facility and a further announcement will be made in due course. "

I can't decide whether this is good news or bad. Am hoping it means that a loan has been offered, but they are haggling over interest terms. Any other views?