Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[red army] 28/11/2014 10:45

More to do with people gambling on the banking arrangements with news due soon.

[senor_sensible] 28/11/2014 10:37

and again at 2.1p. interest in this stock seems to be improving

[senor_sensible] 28/11/2014 09:41

buys going through at 2p now. Huge down trend has to turn somewhere and develop an up trend :-)

[mgalle] 27/11/2014 16:42

Something seems to be going on. It could just be the chances of QE happening have just increased. (Senor, I think that was the head shorter packing in at 1.2p which could be another reason the price is going up. Dont feel sorry he must have made a fortune)

It is always easier to buy when things are going up but I already have far too many Alph.

[red army] 27/11/2014 15:47

sENOR

A small rise against a huge downtrend is somewhat optimistic IMHO.

[senor_sensible] 27/11/2014 15:01

not calling it a full recovery just yet, but imagine the peeps who sold sub 1.2p are questioning their decisions. let's hope this little recovery continues.....

[bisiboy] 21/11/2014 13:22

could this be funded by alpha real trust?

[cjohn] 21/11/2014 11:19

Neither Barclays, nor any other bank will be offering a senior loan to ALPH, (unless they really do pull off major property sales, which I believe is neither possible, nor their intention.)

They will seek subordinate debt. Higher interest rate therefore. But no longer the onerous interest rate on the swap.

[red army] 19/11/2014 20:25

I would not get hung up on the spread as it is only an indication and it is reflecting high risk.

[killieboy] 19/11/2014 19:52

37.5% spread - not good!

[mgalle] 19/11/2014 18:57

I hope not but I suspect that the valuation in Dec will not be up, as Occupancy is down. (Also there is a big risk that the property could be sold in an auction fire sale. What would you value it at?) Senor you moaned about the reduction last time even though commercial property in France was "on the rise".

The amount of interest charged is critical as the fund is losing money at present, partly because property occupancy andthe French economy is down and partly because any money the trust makes goes into a Barclay’s account but does not reduce the amount the interest is charged on. (Even Alpha has moaned about this, but at the time they probably had no choice but agree to it.) Alpha needs the biggest low rate and long term loan they can get.

I hope QE in Europe will happen which could help with the chances of getting a loan, but the Germans have a thing about inflation going back to 1920s. I think the German denial of Europe’s and of their own economy could go on much longer then next Feb.

Barclays is presently doing very nicely from Alpha hopefully they will not want this to change.

[red army] 19/11/2014 16:17

Its amazing how much attention is given to a 15% day rise and less to a 90% fall.

[blackpoolsteve] 19/11/2014 16:05

Hi Senor - maybe it would be best if they waive their fees and expenses then? Only bankers and MP's are allowed these

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2014 15:55

Blackpoolsteve, I think the directors are party to the on-going activity related to re-finance, it would be in-appropriate for them to buy or sell any shares at the moment.

[blackpoolsteve] 19/11/2014 15:39

No directors have bought even though it is so low - they are being paid after all,so logically they should vote with their feet.The fact that they haven't ,and the share price continues to fall,sadly says it all

[blackpoolsteve] 19/11/2014 15:38

No directors have bought even though it is so low - they are being paid after all,so logically they should vote with their feet.The fact that they haven't ,and the share price continues to fall,sadly says it all

[blackpoolsteve] 19/11/2014 15:38

No directors have bought even though it is so low - they are being paid after all,so logically they should vote with their feet.The fact that they haven't ,and the share price continues to fall,sadly says it all

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2014 13:42

there is no hard and fast requirement to get the LTV to 60%, there are 110% deals available in Spain today if you are willing to pay higher interest rates

I agree that it would be beneficially from an interest rate point of view to get below 80% and with a decent re-valuation of the Alu site, and extentions, including appreciation of property in France during H2 2014 and the cash in the bank the company could be comfortably within the 80% giving access to cheaper Finance, otherwise they will have to seek alternative finance options, which I believe has been the case for the last 3-4 years anyway.

There is nothing to suggest that BARX will not keep the hedge settlement separate to property debt and in that case the LTV could be below 70%. Rents are rising and the property prices have bottomed I would be quite happy for that outcome and take the ride back up as the property market recovers.

for me the only unknown is what the interest rate will be in Feb, and as long as the company can still service the debt there will not be a problem.

The alternative for Barx is not really an alternative, I only hope another source of finance than barx, do not like to see them prosper in situations like this, but very much doubt they want to have re-possessed property on their books when all the other banks are trying to achieve the opposite.

Personally I think you have made a mistake in selling at the bottom, I am sure you will come back in February and comment on how good this decision was.

[hosede] 19/11/2014 13:19

Enviro
Agree entirely - should have been a safe income investment - but turns out only for the directors!
C.John
What I meant was that to get the LTV down to 60% .....

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 12:20

No administrator is going to sue the bank hosede. That was up to the board to have done which they failed to do.

A fact which only serves to illuminate the boards likely complicitous behavior throughout.

Leaving it to ones imagination one can conjur all sorts including private payments to individuals to signing interest rate and currency swaps contracts etc.

The sooner now what remains is put down the better, what a tragic story it will be. An ultra safe A graded prime property investment trust that ends up in administration due to to undertaking a series of interest rate and currency swaps.

Shareholders left with nothing, you couldn't make it up could you ?

[cjohn] 19/11/2014 11:40

1 in 50?

Hi Hosede, surely it's not quite that bad. We're talking about unsecured finance, after all.

LTV is worse than 60%!! absolutely no chance of obtaining bank debt. No one on here thinks that.

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2014 10:52

Hosede, understand your reasons for selling even if I disagree, good luck with your other investments. see you around on other boards ;-)

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2014 10:49

Cjohn, yes, sorry meant the revaluation at end of Dec, French commercial property prices have been getting better this qtr, the additional space at the ALU site. I have a similar strategy, worked on a 1:5 chance in the past few years, but as the economy is improving I am seeing much better odds and also much higher upside in an appreciating market.

[hosede] 19/11/2014 10:49

Well - I managed to get 1p for my last 100 odd k. At an LTV of 60% with 7m cash they could get 11m finance so need to sell around 200k by Feb - No chance. And even that depends on the properties being salable at book value - and without any costs eating into the 7m. The only positive thing is the solid rental yield - but with Europe and particularly France heading rapidly South, your'e welcome. I'd put the odds nearer 50:1
Only real hope is of the administrator successfully suing Barclays also about 50:1

[cjohn] 19/11/2014 10:43

You mean the revaluation of the ALU site in December, I think. Refinancing in Feb (possibly!).

This is a stub stock. Obvious considerable risk of going under, but in the case that it doesn't the upside wcould be substantial.

I occasionally put money into stub stocks like ALPH. More often than not, they do go under. However, the dramatic share price appreciation of the fewer successes greatly outweighs the loss from the larger number of write offs.