Allied Irish Banks Share Discussion Threads

[ch1ck] 01/10/2010 07:16

ALBK is not like Northern Rock this one of the main banks in Ireland and the Government have just underwritten it.

The company need to raise capital and are selling assestes and entering a rights issue to cover the short fall. So they need the investment from institutions so they are not going to end trading.

The Governmant have in effect bought a sizeable chunk of the bank and having seen how the uk have already got their money back on Lloyds (on Paper at least) and are recieving a nice dividend for the loan have taken the desision to support ALBK

Give this a month for the uninformed speculation to die down and this will be seen as a volitile and risky investment but one which has the potential of massive gains both for the Irish Gov and investers buying at these levels.

You pay your money and take your chance

[hermana3] 30/9/2010 22:54

Smell of bedwetting bankers.

[jak1] 30/9/2010 22:30

Has a smell of Northen crock about it, remember traders jumping in every time it went up a few pence. We all know how that ended...

[hermana3] 30/9/2010 20:13

and lock it too.....

[oneiroscopist] 30/9/2010 14:49

Will the last to leave please close the door.

[linney3] 30/9/2010 14:46

As Miley Byrne would say if he were still around......."Well Holy God"!

[napoleon111] 30/9/2010 14:22

I hate to be bearish about irish bank shares, as i depend on the banks! but theres no overlooking the fact that there really is very little chance to aib recovering. Minumum state shareholding of about 75%, doubtful whether or not they can maintain their exchange listing. Best case scenario is similar to rbs, worst case scenario, well just subsitute allied for anglo and there you go. To those of you who have the balls there might be a bit of money to be made trading in and out of aib for the coming months, but a ship without a captain at their helm will crash eventually. Best of luck to all holders
Rgds
Nap

[napoleon111] 30/9/2010 14:19

Quipincha re post 1180, yes thats right, not logical at all, and absolutley no chance of II's putting any money near aib

AIB made this statement to the Stock Exchange this morning. It covers an increased capital requirement of €10.4 billion, equity capital raising plan and management and board changes.

"AIB Capital Update / Equity Capital Raising

"Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. ("AIB") [NYSE: AIB] is making this announcement following a review of its capital requirements by the Irish Financial Regulator (the "Financial Regulator"). The Financial Regulator has updated its assessment of AIB's capital requirement and has increased the amount of equity capital required under the Prudential Capital Assessment Review ("PCAR") from €7.4 billion to €10.4 billion. The increased PCAR requirement for AIB has been set following an assessment by the Financial Regulator of AIB's potential losses on NAMA loans.

"This PCAR capital requirement is to be met as follows:
€ billion
- equity capital raising 5.4
- disposals and other capital generating measures 5.0
Total 10.4

"Equity Capital Raising 2010

"A €5.4 billion equity capital raising will be launched during November which will be completed before 31 December 2010. This equity capital raising will be fully underwritten by the National Pensions Reserve Fund Commission ("NPRFC") at a fixed price of €0.50 per new ordinary share, which represents a discount of approximately 9.4 per cent to the official closing price of an ordinary share on the Irish Stock Exchange on 29 September 2010. The capital raising will be structured as a placing and open offer and existing shareholders will be invited to subscribe for all or part of their pro rata entitlements. New institutional shareholders may also be permitted to subscribe for new shares under the offer.

"If necessary, the NPRFC's underwriting commitment will be met through a new cash contribution of up to €3.7 billion for new ordinary shares from existing cash resources of the NPRFC and by the conversion of up to €1.7 billion of the existing 2009 Preferences Shares held by the NPRFC. Following this conversion of 2009 Preference Shares the NPRFC would hold €1.8 billion of 2009 Preference Shares.

"On completion of the equity capital raising it is possible that the NPRFC will own a significant majority stake in AIB. It is intended to structure the transaction in a manner which optimises the ability of AIB to retain its existing stock exchange listings, including appropriate structuring of voting rights, (subject to agreement with the relevant exchanges) even in circumstances where the NPRFC purchases all or substantially all of the underwritten new ordinary shares. The mechanics of implementation will be subject to discussion with relevant listing authorities.

"It is anticipated that the existing warrants issued to the NPRFC in 2009 will be repurchased on terms to be agreed.

"The terms of the capital raising are subject to the approval, inter alia, of the European Commission, AIB shareholders and other regulatory consents. A prospectus will be published in due course and will provide further details in relation to the terms of the equity capital raising, underwriting structure and timing.

"Disposals and Other Capital Generating Measures

"On 10 September 2010, AIB announced the sale of it Polish interests, representing the sale of its entire 70.36 per cent shareholding in the issued share capital of Bank Zachodni WBK S.A. and its 50 per cent shareholding in BZ WBK Asset Management S.A. to Banco Santander S.A. which will generate approximately €2.5 billion of equivalent equity tier 1 capital. In addition, AIB is undertaking further asset disposals and considering additional capital generating initiatives which could generate a further €2.5 billion of capital. Subject to the outcome of those further asset disposals and capital generating measures, to the extent required, the remaining €1.8 billion of 2009 Preference Shares held by the NPRFC may be fully or partially converted into new ordinary shares on 31 March 2011, to meet final regulatory requirements as determined by the Financial Regulator.

"Board and Management

"The Minister for Finance expected that management and board changes would be made in conjunction with the recapitalisation of the bank.
"The Board has agreed with Mr. Dan O'Connor that he will step down as Executive Chairman within the coming weeks.

"The Board has also agreed with Group Managing Director Mr. Colm Doherty the termination of his contract on existing terms. Mr Doherty will depart AIB before the end of 2010.

"The Board wishes to express their appreciation both to Mr. O'Connor and Mr. Doherty for their contribution to the bank, especially in recent times as the bank embarked on its recapitalisation and reorganisation. "

[crosswire] 30/9/2010 13:54

Yanks are buying!!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) and Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) are having opposite moves on Irish bailout cost projections. Allied Irish is down 25% at $1.23 on more than 1.4 million shares while Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) is up 5% at $3.36 on over 150,000 shares.

Read more: Top Active Trader Alert Stocks (AIB, IRE, AIG, GMCR, HYC, LLNW, MAT, NOK, SNTS) - 24/7 Wall St.

[dilly4] 30/9/2010 13:40

sold @ 45 bought in at 38 so made a tidy profit.

[hassani2] 30/9/2010 13:14

good luck to u,i was in @ 1.75

[dealy] 30/9/2010 12:51

I am in at 39.7 cents.

[hassani2] 30/9/2010 12:37

albk got the donkey off their shoulder,things can only get better

[cat100] 30/9/2010 12:23

Irish bailout is equiv to 5 tarps

[hermana3] 30/9/2010 12:19

Tis a dire scenario playing out here for sure. Will someone volunteer to turn out the lights? Only the stinking govt want a piece of this now.

[qipincha] 30/9/2010 11:58

am I wrong here? A €5.4 billion equity capital raising? and current market is 432m?

[hassani2] 30/9/2010 11:17

reality is bkir started it all and now albk paying for it,their turn around the corner,the name BANK OF IRELAND sound nationalised for me long time ago

[keelingr] 30/9/2010 11:16

Allied Irish Banks (€0.55)

PCAR requirement increased by €3B, State underwriting €5.4B capital plan at 50c/share, executive departures

Thu, 30 Sep 2010
AIB has announced this morning in conjunction with the Finance Minister and Financial Regulator that AIB's PCAR capital requirement has been increased by €3B to €10.4B, due to higher expected discounts on balances remaining to transfer to NAMA (the probable discount is estimated at 60% on the remaining €13.5B vs 45% on average for the first two tranches).
Approximately €5B of capital is expected to be raised via asset disposals (including €2.5B from the previously announced Polish disposals) with the balance of €5.4B to be raised by an underwritten process (by the NPRFC which would preclude the State from having to raise the incremental €3.7B from markets after converting part of its pref shares) commencing in November and to be completed by December, at 50c/share. The capital raise, including the potential conversion of €1.7B of the government preferred shares will be structured as a placing and open offer with existing shareholders to be invited to subscribe for all or part of their pro rata entitlements. New shareholders will also be invited to participate. In a scenario where there is no private participation the State would have a c.92.5% shareholding. In the event where disposals are not executed or do not generate capital, conversion of all or part of the €1.8B balance of Government prefs is possible (we note M&T will be in close period for Q3 after today). Terms may be agreed to allow the bank to repurchase the 25% warrants that are outstanding.

Executive Chairman Dan O'Connor and Group MD Colm Doherty are expected to depart the bank in the near term.

We expect the certainty over the capital raising process will be taken positively by the market. However, the quantum of capital remains large, and the implied market cap of €5.9B (at the 50c/share level with pro forma 11.9B shares o/s) seems high relative to peers (BoI market cap is €3B post capital raise) and near term earnings potential. While the incremental capital requirement for AIB is to be provided by the NPRF, the market will have concerns about the impact of incremental capital requirements for the banking system announced this morning on the State financial position (see next comment).



92.5% state shareholding. I think this is headed to c. 25c

[hassani2] 30/9/2010 11:10

albk in newyork gona open with 35% down at least

[linney3] 30/9/2010 11:09

$1.14 pre us market and dropping continually - the lowest share price was 89cent in March 2009,and they may test a dollar today

[hermana3] 30/9/2010 11:08

The vultures are circling on uk and us assets. How the mighty have fallen

[keelingr] 30/9/2010 11:05

What good news is AIB going to be able to give the market? It is likely to receive less for further asset disposals now.....

[ms221] 30/9/2010 11:02

Decisions, decisions

They always say buy when blood is flowing in the streets

And it is pretty grim at present

[keelingr] 30/9/2010 11:01

If you've got a good thick set of Pampers on, you should be fine!